暨南大学硕士学位论文
摘要
新古典经济理论认为，资本应该从富裕的经济体（国家或地区）流向贫穷的
经济体，然而 Lucas（1990）通过测算标准新古典模型中的资本边际产出发现，
富裕经济体和贫穷经济体的资本回报率相差较大，而且资本从较高回报率的贫穷
经济体流向了较低回报率的富裕经济体。针对该悖论，许多文献基于跨国资本回
报率解释国际资本流动，经过一系列调整后得到富裕经济体和贫穷经济体的资本
回报率基本相等，意味着国际信贷摩擦并没有阻碍资本从富裕经济体流向贫穷经
济体，相关研究都进一步提出国内资本积累摩擦——资本调整成本作为重要的修
正思路，却没有准确测算出相应的资本回报率结果。本文主要结合 Caselli and
Feyrer（2007）和刘仁和等（2018）的研究思路，在对传统的资本回报率进行可
再生资本份额和相对价格修正的基础上，结合 q理论将资本调整成本纳入到跨国
资本回报率的测算。基于 46个经济体 1980-2017年的年度数据，我们的测算结
果发现加入资本调整成本后，富裕经济体和贫穷经济体的资本回报率在统计上差
异并不明显，结合资本回报率和资本流动的关系，从跨国资本回报率的测算角度，
我们可以认为资本尚不具备足够的动力从富裕经济体流向贫穷经济体。
关键词：跨国资本回报率；资本流动；资本调整成本
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暨南大学硕士学位论文
Abstract
Neoclassical economic theory believes that capital should flow from rich
economies (countries or regions) to poor economies. However, Lucas (1990) measured
the marginal product of capital in the standard neoclassical model and found that the
return on capital of rich and poor economies is quite different, and capital flows from
poor economies with higher rates of return to rich economies with lower rates of return.
In response to this paradox, many articles explain international capital flows based on
the return on capital. After a series of adjustments, it is concluded that the return on
capital of rich and poor economies is basically equal, which means that international
credit friction has not hindered the flow of capital from rich economies to poor
economies. Related studies have further proposed domestic capital accumulation
friction— Capital adjustment cost is an important revision idea, but the corresponding
return on capital result has not been accurately measured. This article mainly combines
the research ideas of Caselli and Feyrer (2007) and Liu Renhe et al. (2018). On the basis
of revising the share of reproducible capital and the relative price of the return on capital,
combined with q theory, capital adjustment costs are included in the calculation of
return on capital cross countries. After the capital adjustment cost is added, using the
annual data of 46 economies from 1980 to 2017, the calculation results found that the
statistical difference between the return on capital of the rich and poor economies is not
obvious. Combining the relationship between the return on capital and the capital flow,
from the perspective of the calculation of the return on capital, we can conclude that
there is not enough motivation for capital to flow from rich economies to poor
economies.
Keywords: Return on Capital Across Countries; Capital Flow; Capital Adjustment
Cost
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暨南大学硕士学位论文
目录
中文摘要 ................................................................................................................... I
英文摘要 .................................................................................................................. II
目录........................................................................................................................ III
1引言....................................................................................................................... 4
1.1研究背景和研究意义 ........................................................................................ 4
1.2研究内容与研究方法 ........................................................................................ 8
1.3可能的贡献....................................................................................................... 11
2相关文献............................................................................................................. 12
3理论模型............................................................................................................. 12
3.1同时修正可再生资本份额、相对价格和考虑资本调整成本的资本回报率 18
3.2修正相对价格和考虑资本调整成本的资本回报率 ...................................... 21
3.3修正可再生资本份额和考虑资本调整成本的资本回报率........................... 21
3.4考虑资本调整成本的资本回报率 ................................................................. 22
3.5企业加总到经济体 ........................................................................................ 22
4方法与数据说明................................................................................................. 24
4.1资本调整成本参数估计方法......................................................................... 24
4.2数据说明和变量构造 .................................................................................... 25
4.3描述性统计与参数估计结果......................................................................... 29
5跨国资本回报率水平及其差异比较 ................................................................ 32
5.1跨国资本回报率水平 .................................................................................... 32
5.2跨国资本回报率差异比较............................................................................. 35
6稳健性检验....................................................................................................... 37
6.1减少经济体数量且延长年份......................................................................... 37
6.2放松资本份额................................................................................................ 38
6.3放松折旧率.................................................................................................... 39
6.4同时放松资本份额和折旧率......................................................................... 41
6.5按照 Caselli and Feyrer（2007）的经济体分类............................................ 42
6.6采用产出占比加权资本回报率..................................................................... 43
7结论与政策建议............................................................................................... 45
参考文献 ................................................................................................................ 47
附录........................................................................................................................ 49
致谢........................................................................................................................ 59
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。。。以下略