摘要
摘要
随着网络科技在金融服务领域的渗透和创新，数字金融迎来蓬勃发展时期，
推动现有金融体系的深刻变革。但是它的出现，严重冲击了中国传统金融市场，
同时，对货币政策实际的运行产生很大影响，也增加了人民银行有效管理货币供
应量和货币政策实际运行的困难。因此，对于把数字金融作为重点研究对象，并
深入分析数字金融市场对国家货币政策传导效果的影响，从而疏通货币政策传导
途径，提升中央银行对宏观经济状况的有效控制，将具有重大的理论与现实意义。
文章采用了理论分析与实证分析两者相结合的方法，首先明确定义了数字金
融的具体概念，并详细梳理数字金融特点及发展状况。其次梳理总结了货币政策
体系的相关理论。随后，文章从利率传导途径和货币政策信贷传导途径两方面出
发，并根据数字金融自身的特征，在理论上分析了数字金融对两种货币政策传导
途径的影响机制。而在此基础上选取向量自回归模型（ VAR模型）开展实证分
析，并引入数字金融、物价水平、货币供应量、利率、产出、信贷规模六个关键
变量。本文通过选取从 2013年至 2021年的月度历史数据进行实证建模，以探析
数字金融对货币政策传导途径的影响程度。本文通过 ADF平稳性检验和协整检
验，得出本文选取的各变量之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系，这表明中国数字金
融的发展分别与货币政策利率传导机制、信贷传导机制确实存在着现实的相互影
响关系。通过 AR单位根检验 VAR模型的稳定性表明本文结论具有稳定性和可
靠性。通过脉冲响应分析各变量之间的动态关系，由于数字金融产生的影响，货
币供应量的反应程度很大，同时信贷规模的反应程度也很大。而利率在数字金融
的影响下，其反应程度较小。本文通过使用方差分解，对货币政策传导渠道受到
数字金融的影响程度进行分析及探索，结果显示数字金融的发展使货币供应量对
银行信贷规模波动的贡献度大于利率波动的贡献度，表明信贷渠道受到数字金融
的影响程度较大。分析表明数字金融对于货币政策中介指标的可控及可测性均有
着削弱的作用，同时数字金融还代替了银行存款，使得货币政策信贷传导途径的
有效性大大降低，同时对于货币政策执行的利率传导途径也有着一定的削弱作用，
从而对货币政策执行的最终目标形成了一定影响。
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摘要
最后本文所得结论，提出针对性建议：（1）合理扩大信贷规模的统计范围
（2）推进利率市场化，完善利率传导机制；（3）加强对数字金融领域的政策监
管。
关键词：数字金融；传导机制；货币政策；VAR模型
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Abstract
Impact of digital finance on the transmission effect of monetary
policy
Yang Lan
Finance
Directed by Yang Ronghai
Abstract
With the penetration and innovation of network technology in the field of
financial services, digital finance has ushered in a period of vigorous development,
which has promoted profound changes in the existing financial system. But its
emergence has severely impacted China's traditional financial markets and, at the
same time, has greatly affected the actual operation of monetary policy and added to
the difficulties of the PBOC in effectively managing the money supply and the actual
operation of monetary policy. Thus, taking digital finance as the key research object
and in-depth analysis of the impact of the digital financial market on the transmission
effect of national monetary policy will have significant theoretical and realistic
meaning.
The article adopts a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis, firstly, it
clearly defines the specific concept of digital finance, and sorts out the characteristics
and development of digital finance in detail. Secondly, it summarizes the relevant
theories of the monetary policy system, including the specific concepts of monetary
policy, monetary policy tools and monetary policy goals. Then, the article analyzes
the influence mechanism of digital finance on the two monetary policy transmission
channels theoretically from both the interest rate transmission channel and the credit
transmission channel of monetary policy, and according to the characteristics of
digital finance itself. The mechanisms of the impact of digital finance on the two
monetary policy transmission channels are analyzed separately in theory. On top of
this, a vector autoregressive model (VAR model) is selected for empirical analysis,
and six key variables of digital finance, money supply, price level, interest rate, output,
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