摘要
摘要
金融不稳定是指金融体系受到外界干扰后，其关键功能无法再有效执行。
金融不稳定对经济发展的负面影响较大，尤其是它的最高层次表现形式—金
融危机给世界经济带来的损失更是惨重。所以说，对金融不稳定的测度及其
对宏观经济增长的影响的研究显得尤为重要。本文在现有金融不稳定性与经
济增长的相关理论研究的基础上，从资本流动性的角度出发，建立流动性基
准指标，将 M2/M1作为衡量非洲金融不稳定性的重要指标和代理变量，详
细研究金融不稳定性对 15个非洲国家的经济增长的影响。
金融不稳定对各国宏观经济发展的负面作用已得到理论界的广泛关注和
深入研究，同时，金融不稳定作为经济体系的运行常态，对各个国家或经济
体的金融结构和经济制度安排也造成了较大影响，研究其对宏观经济的影响
对国民经济的管理具有重大意义。另一方面，在经济金融全球化背景下，非
洲各国的金融自由化进程逐渐加速，资本市场逐渐开放，与世界金融市场的
联系日益紧密，经济发展中特别是金融市场中所面临的不稳定性因素必然随
之增加，金融不稳定不仅成为非洲金融发展中的一个关键问题，而且对非洲
的宏观经济也产生着重大影响。
目前研究金融大环境变化对非洲经济影响的文章多集中在现状分析、影
响因素和机制等宏观方面的研究，专门针对非洲各国进行案例分析和实证研
究的文章较少。所以，作为一名来自非洲的留学生，本文旨在分析金融不稳
定性对非洲国家的经济增长的影响，进而就金融不稳定性如何影响某些非洲
国家的经济增长进行异质性分析。具体来看，本文研究了 1980年-2019年间
金融不稳定性对 15个非洲国家的经济增长的影响及其异质性影响。首先，
本文评估了 1980-2019年间金融不稳定性对 15个非洲国家的经济增长的影响，
然后，本文进一步将非洲的 15个国家分为四类，即：中非国家经济共同体，
南部非洲发展共同体，西非国家经济共同体和东非国家。结果表明金融不稳
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金融不稳定对非洲经济增长的影响：基于非洲 15个国家的实证研究
定性确实阻碍了非洲各国的经济发展，其中经济不发达的中非和南非国家受
到的影响更大。即非洲地区发达程度越低，影响就越大。此外，投资、偿债、
出口和消费等均会受到金融冲击的影响。
关键词：金融不稳定性;GDP增长;货币和财政政策;人口;银行和非洲
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ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT
Financial instability means that after the financial system is disturbed by the
outside world, its key functions can no longer be effectively implemented.
Financial instability has a greater negative impact on economic development,
especially its highest level of manifestation, the financial crisis, which has brought
heavy losses to the world economy. Therefore, it is particularly important to study
the measurement of financial instability and its impact on macroeconomic growth.
Based on the existing theoretical research on financial instability and economic
growth, this paper establishes a benchmark index of liquidity from the perspective
of capital liquidity, taking M2/M1 as an important indicator and proxy variable to
measure financial instability in Africa, so as to study in detail the impact of
financial instability on the economic growth of 15 African countries.
The negative effects of financial instability on the macroeconomic
development of various countries have received extensive attention and in-depth
research in the theoretical community. At the same time, financial instability, as
the normal operation of the economic system, has also caused the financial
structure and economic system arrangements of various countries or economies.
The study of its impact on the macro-economy is of great significance to the
management of the national economy. On the other hand, under the background of
economic and financial globalization, the process of financial liberalization in
African countries has gradually accelerated, capital markets have gradually opened
up, and the connection with the world financial market has become increasingly
close. Economic development, especially financial markets, are facing instability
factors. It will inevitably increase. Financial instability has not only become a key
issue in Africa?s financial development, but also has a major impact on Africa?s
macroeconomics.
At present, articles studying the impact of changes in the financial
environment on the African economy are mostly focused on macroscopic studies
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