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涉密论文按学校规定处理。

摘要
我国债券市场经过 30多年的发展与完善，在交易品种、交易规模和市场交
易流动性等方面都得到了丰富和提高，但债券违约事件也相伴频繁发生。根据
WIND数据资料显示，我国信用债市场在 2017至 2019年期间违约金额和违约数
量明显增加，2018年违约金额突破 1000万亿元，违约只数突破 100只。从信用
债的违约行业来看，截止至 2019年年末，制造业是违约主体、违约金额、违约
只数最多的行业。本文以于 2019年 1月宣告债券违约的康得新公司为案例，从
资产流动性和负债流动性的角度剖析该违约事件发生的原因，得出相应的启示。
首先本文对企业流动性、企业债券违约的国内外研究现状进行了梳理，为后
续研究奠定了扎实的理论基础。其次，本文用静态资产流动性指标和动态资产流
动性指标对康得新公司的资产流动性进行了分析，发现康得新公司资产流动性风
险主要表现为静态资产流动性不足，动态资产流动性不够；负债流动性风险主要
表现为债务融资成本高，融资能力下降。紧着着，本文通过财务指标和 Z值模
型分析理清了流动性风险通过影响经营状况，加重财务危机导致 18SCP001债券
违约的影响机制。再次，本文对资产负债流动性风险产生的原因做了更进一步的
探讨，发现在行业景气指数下降、其他流动性资产大量限制、对外担保过多担保
风险过大、期限错配、多元化发展失败和自身盈利能力不足的共同影响下，使得
康得新流动性风险愈发突出。最后，基于以上分析结论，对同行业企业及相关企
业提出要防范大股东资金占用、合理安排内部负债结构、加强自身盈利能力管理、
制定适合自身的发展战略、完善流动性风险控制的建议。
本文的创新之处主要体现在以下两个方面。第一，从研究角度来说，以前文
献对流动性风险的研究大多针对商业银行等金融机构，鲜有学者对企业进行流动
性风险研究。第二，从研究角度来说，大多数企业债券违约的指标是从企业的营
运能力、盈利能力等财务指标上进行财务分析，很少有从企业资产流动性和负债
流动性角度进行流动性风险分析，且资产流动性的指标又不同于传统的静态资产
指标指标，还加入了动态资产流动性风险指标和潜在资产流动性风险指标，能更
全面的反映企业的资产流动性风险情况。
关键词：债券违约；流动性风险；康得新公司
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Abstract
After more than 30 years of development and improvement in my country’s bond
market, my country's bond market has been enriched and improved in terms of
transaction varieties, transaction scale and market transaction liquidity, but bond
defaults have also occurred frequently. While my country’s bond market is booming,
defaults in the credit bond market are also deteriorating. According to WIND data, the
amount and number of defaults in my country’s credit market have increased
significantly during 2018 and 2019. In 2018, the default amount exceeded 10 million.
100 million yuan, the number of defaults exceeded 100. From the perspective of the
default industries of credit bonds, as of the end of 2019, the manufacturing industry
was the industry with the largest number of default subjects, default amounts, and
defaults. This article takes KANGDEXIN COMPOSITE MATERIAL GROUP (KDX),
which announced its bond default in January 2019, as a case. Through in-depth
analysis of the reasons for the default, the corresponding enlightenment and
suggestions are obtained.
First of all, this article sorts out the domestic and foreign research status of
corporate liquidity and corporate bond defaults, and lays a solid theoretical foundation
for follow-up research. Secondly, this article uses static asset liquidity indicators and
dynamic asset liquidity indicators to analyze KDX’s asset liquidity and finds that
KDX’s asset liquidity risk is mainly manifested in insufficient static asset liquidity
and dynamic asset liquidity. Continue to be zero; debt liquidity risk is mainly
manifested in the high cost of debt financing and the decline in financing capacity.
Immediately, this article clarifies the mechanism of liquidity risk that affects financial
indicators through financial indicators and Z-value model analysis, and aggravates the
financial crisis that leads to 18SCP001 bond defaults. Third, this article further
explores the causes of asset and liability liquidity risks, and finds that the decline in
industry prosperity index, a large number of restrictions on other liquid assets,
excessive external guarantees, excessive guarantee risks, maturity mismatches, and
failure to diversify development Under the common influence of the new company,
KDX’s liquidity risk has become more prominent. Finally, based on the above
analysis and conclusions, recommendations for companies in the same industry and
related companies to prevent capital occupation by major shareholders, rationally
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