基于模糊综合评价的G银行H分行项目贷款风险评估研究
基于模糊综合评价的 G银行 H分行
项目贷款风险评估研究
摘要
项目贷款是 G银行 H分行最重要的一项贷款品种，其投放量稳
居各贷款品种之首，并且是该行主要的利润来源之一。项目贷款运营
的情况直接影响该行信贷资产的体量与质量。因此，项目贷款风险控
制显得十分重要，秉持着防范“病从口入”的经营理念， G银行 H
分行在项目贷款贷前的风险评估阶段非常慎重，历经多年发展，已经
建立了一套相对完善的评估体系。
本文从 G银行 H分行原有的项目贷款风险评估体系出发研究，
通过文献学习、实际案例分析，发现实际使用中，原有评估方法仍然
存在一些比较明显的不足之处，比如评估重心偏离、过度依赖可行性
研究、指标体系需进一步完善等，从而导致评估结果与项目实际运营
结果不一致的情况，并选取了评估结果与实际运营结果截然相反的 X
公司和 Y公司项目评估案例进行分析。本文着眼于模糊综合评价，
以该方法为基础，运用层次分析法确定各指标的权重值，对 G银行 H
分行原有评估指标要素进行细化改进，形成新的评价方法和内容。在
重构之后，选取了 X公司和 Y公司这两个案例运用新体系进行回测
分析，结果显示两个案例在运用基于模糊综合评估的项目贷款风险评
估后的结论与实际运营结果更为贴切。结论显示新构建的体系运用有

基于模糊综合评价的G银行H分行项目贷款风险评估研究
数学基础的模糊综合评价方法，相比较原先的指标方法，更有利于精
准的识别项目贷款风险，为项目贷款放款的科学决策提供依据，促进
项目贷款业务的健康发展。
关键词：项目贷款，风险评估，模糊综合评价，层次分析法

基于模糊综合评价的G银行H分行项目贷款风险评估研究
RESEARCH ON THE RISK ASSESSMENT OF G BANK H
BRANCH PROJECT LOAN
BASED ON FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION
ABSTRACT
Project loan is one of the most important loan varieties of G Bank H Branch,
and its amount of investment ranks the first among all loan varieties, and it is one
of the main profit sources of the bank. Project loan operation directly affects the
volume and quality of the bank's credit assets. Therefore, it is very important to
control the risk of project loans. Adhering to the business philosophy of preventing
the "disease from entering at the mouth", G Bank H Branch is very cautious in the
risk assessment stage before project loans. After years of development, it has
established a relatively complete evaluation system.
This article from the bank of G, H the project loan risk evaluation system of
the original study, through literature study, case analysis, found in practical use,
the original evaluation methods there are still some obvious shortcomings, such
as assessment center deviation, over-reliance on feasibility study, the index
system should be further perfect, etc., As a result, the evaluation results are
inconsistent with the actual operation results of the project, and the project
evaluation cases of X company and Y Company that are completely opposite to
the actual operation results are selected for analysis. This paper focuses on fuzzy
comprehensive evaluation, based on this method, uses analytic hierarchy process
to determine the weight value of each index, refines and improves the original
evaluation index elements of G Bank H Branch, and forms a new evaluation
method and content. After the reconstruction, two cases of X Company and Y
Company were selected for backtest analysis using the new system, and the
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