iii 摘要 在牛短熊长的中国股市，大多数个人投资者长期亏损，个人投资者面对中国 股市的困难局面，想要取得较好的投资收益，亟需建立一套系统完整的投资分析 策略。 本论文首先探讨了技术分析的三大假设以及合理性，概述了道氏理论和波浪 理论的原理及其应用缺陷——它们指导个股操作的不足，概括了证券价格的混沌 性质与分形特征以及国内外技术分析的研究现状；在此基础上，本论文引入对个 股分析更为适用的技术分析法——中枢比较法作为研究对象，探究其如何构建投 资策略并应用到个股交易中。从中枢比较法的形态和动能两个方向展开该方法的 应用，并依据三类买卖点设计了基本标准化的交易流程。 本文按照基于中枢比较法设计的交易流程，详细复盘分析了顺灏股份 （002565）、中小板指（399005）、光明乳业（600597），浙江龙盛（600352） 和上证综合指数并给出了相对应的选股思路，总结出对不同形态个股的分析切入 点，基于上证指数的T+1规则，提出日K线、30分钟K线相结合的操作思路。通 过实证检验，此交易流程可以为中小投资者所用。 本文根据中枢中笔的定义展开进一步研究，通过设计两个变量，同时赋予每 个变量两个取值，分析上证指数一年的数据得出其三个级别（30分钟、5分钟，1 分钟）的64种走势组合，并计算得到相应走势形成的概率，基于数据中转折概率 最大的走势设计出易于投资者观察和参考的买卖决策指标，经该指标对上述个股 重新分析，发现此决策买卖点涵盖于标准化流程的三类买卖点之中，基于该决策 指标设计的a+A+b+B+c交易策略提高了交易的报酬风险比，此研究降低了中枢比 较法的应用难度同时拓展了其应用广度。 最后汇总本文的研究论点，得出了以下结论：（1）个股股价的走势基本以两 中枢上涨或下跌作为趋势的重要转折；（2）不同级别股价走势的综合分析是探究 个股交易时点的关键；（3）通过统计结果的数据分析及a+A+b+B+c的走势模型 设计出的决策指标有效的提高了交易的成功率，拓展了其应用范围，丰富了投资 者的投资策略。 关键词：中枢比较法；趋势投资；拐点预测；个股买卖； 北京交通大学硕士专业学位论文 ABSTRACT iv ABSTRACT In the Chinese stock market, most individual investors suffer from long-term losses. Facing the difficult situation of Chinese stock market, individual investors need to establish a systematic and complete investment analysis strategy in order to achieve better investment returns. This paper summarizes the principles of dow theory and wave theory and their application defects, which can guide the operation of a single stock,This paper summarizes the chaotic properties and fractal characteristics of security prices and the research status of technical analysis at home and abroad On this basis,this paper introduces the central comparative method, which is more applicable to individual stock analysis. How to construct investment strategies and apply them to individual stock trading. I developed the principle of this method from the two directions of form and kinetic energy and designed the basic standardized trading process according to three trading points. In this paper, the transaction flow is designed based on the central comparison method in detail in checking ways shunhao shares (002565), small and medium plate index，guangming ruye(600536), zhejiang LongSheng(600352) and the Shanghai composite index pick and gives the corresponding train of thought, and sums up the analysis of the starting point of individual stocks, T +1 rule based on the Shanghai composite index, the operation idea of daily K line and 30 minute K line is put forward. The application of the transaction process is studied.Through empirical test, this transaction process can be used by small and medium investors. According to the definition of central pens in further study, through the design of two variables, at the same time give each variable two values, analysis of the Shanghai index data from the three levels of a year (30 minutes, 5 minutes, 1 minutes) of 64 kinds of combinations.this paper designs the buying and selling decision indicators that are easy for investors to observe and apply based on the trend with the highest turning probability in the data and the conclusion that the trend with the rising or falling trend of the two central centers is basically over. Based on the re-analysis of the above-mentioned stocks by this index, it is found that the trading point of this decision covers three types of trading points in the standardized process. The trading strategy of 北京交通大学硕士专业学位论文 ABSTRACT v a+A+b+B+c designed based on this index improves the reward risk ratio and the winning rate of trading.This research expands the application scope of central comparison method and reduces its application difficulty. Finally, the paper summarizes the following conclusions:(1)The trend of stock prices with two central rising or falling as an important turning point of the trend;(2) Comprehensive analysis of different levels of trend is the key to explore the stock trading point;(3)Through the analysis of statistical data and the trend pattern of a+A+b+B+c,which reduces the difficulty in the application of the central comparison method and improves the application range of the method, Enriched the investment strategy of investors. KEYWORDS：Inflection prediction; central comparison; trend investment; trading of individual shares; 北京交通大学硕士专业学位论文 目录 vi 目录 致谢 .......................................................................................................................... ii 摘要 ........................................................................................................................... iii ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................. iv 1 引言 ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 选题背景 ...................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究意义 ...................................................................................................... 2 1.3 研究内容与思路 ........................................................................................... 3 1.3.1 内容安排 ................................................................................................ 3 1.3.2 技术路线 ................................................................................................ 4 2 理论基础与文献综述 .......................................................................................... 5 2.1 技术分析的基本假设 .................................................................................. 5 2.2 中枢比较法概述 .......................................................................................... 6 2.2.1 方法的界定 ............................................................................................ 6 2.2.2 方法的特点 ............................................................................................ 7 2.2.3 适用范围 ................................................................................................ 7 2.3 证券价格混沌性质与分形特征 .................................................................. 8 2.3.1 证券价格混沌性质 ................................................................................ 8 2.3.2 证券价格分形特征 ................................................................................ 9 2.4 经典技术分析理论 .................................................................................... 10 2.4.1 道氏理论 .............................................................................................. 10 2.4.2 波浪理论 .............................................................................................. 11 2.4.3 经典技术指标 ...................................................................................... 12 2.5 国内外技术分析研究概况 ...................................................................... 13 2.5.1 国外技术分析的研究现状 .................................................................. 13 2.5.2 国内技术分析的研究现状 .................................................................. 14 3 中枢比较法的应用及交易流程设计 ................................................................ 17 3.1 中枢比较法的分析框架 .............