Ⅰ 中原城市群城市用地扩张的时空格局特征及驱动因素分析 摘要 城市化是社会发展的必然趋势，是一个国家实现现代化的重要标志。随着我 国改革开放的不断深入与社会经济的持续发展，我国的城市化进程不断加快。城 市群作为推动我国城市化进程的主体形态，在优化资源配置方面的优势凸显。城 市用地规模作为城市群发展的重要载体，其扩张态势、结构变化将直接影响城市 土地利用系统和城市群整体功能的发挥。本文基于2000—2017年中原城市群5 省30个城市的统计数据，首先，利用城市扩张相关指数、空间相关性检验、重 心转移模型等方法研究中原城市群城市建设用地扩张的时空特征。同时，结合城 市建设用地结构数据，运用土地信息熵和均衡度对中原城市群城市用地的内部结 构变化进行时空分析。其次，将城市用地扩张数据与城市人口增长数据相结合， 对城市用地扩张的合理性进行探讨。最后，结合城市统计年鉴中的经济社会数据， 运用灰色关联分析法、计量经济模型分析法，分析其城市用地扩张的主要驱动因 素。 研究表明：中原城市群城市用地扩张阶段性、波动性明显，研究期内城市用 地扩张速率逐渐放缓，经历了从前期快速扩张到后期平稳扩张的过渡；空间上， 经历了由“片状集聚扩张”，“跳跃式离散扩张”到“阶梯圈层式扩张”的过程， 城市用地增长呈现较弱离散现象，区域发展之间存在一定“虹吸效应”；居住用 地、仓储用地、道路交通用地和绿地为增长性结构，公共设施用地、工业用地、 对外交通用地及市政公用设施用地为衰减性结构；中原城市群城市土地扩张速率 快于人口增长速率，城市建设用地利用正在由用地粗放态势向合理化的状态转 变。经济发展和人口增长是中原城市群城市用地扩张的根本动力。 关键词：城市用地扩张；时空特征；空间关联；驱动因素；中原城市群 ABSTRACT Ⅱ Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Pattern Characteristics and Driving Factors of Urban Land Expansion in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration ABSTRACT Urbanization is an inevitable trend of social development and an important symbol of a country's modernization. With the deepening of China's reform and opening and the continuous development of society and economy, China's urbanization process has continued to accelerate. Urban agglomerations, as the main form of urbanization in China, have prominent advantages in optimizing resource allocation. The scale of urban land use is an important carrier for the development of urban agglomerations, and it’s expansion and structural changes will directly affect the urban land use systems and the overall functioning of urban agglomerations. This paper is based on the statistical data of 30 cities in 5 provinces of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration from 2000 to 2017. Firstly, the spatial-temporal characteristics of urban construction land expansion in the Central Plains urban agglomeration were studied by using urban expansion correlation index, spatial correlation test, and center of gravity shift model. Simultaneously, based on the urban construction land structure data, the land information entropy and equilibrium degree are used to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of the internal structure of urban land in the Central Plains urban agglomeration. Secondly, the data of urban land expansion and urban population growth are combined to explore the rationality of urban land expansion. Finally, combined with the economic and social data in the Urban Statistical Yearbook, the grey driving analysis method and the econometric model analysis method were used to analyze the main driving factors of urban land expansion. Based on the results of the empirical analysis, countermeasures and suggestions are proposed for the development of the Central Plains urban agglomeration. The research shows that the urban land expansion of the Central Plains urban agglomeration has obvious stages and fluctuations. During the study period, the urban land expansion rate gradually slowed down and experienced a transition from rapid expansion in the early period to steady expansion in the later period. Spatially, it experienced the process from "flaky agglomeration expansion", "jump-type discrete 华北水利水电大学硕士学位论文 Ⅲ expansion" to "step-and-loop expansion". The urban land growth showed a weak discrete phenomenon, and there was a certain "siphon effect" between regional development. Residential land, storage land, road traffic land, and green land are growth structures. Public facilities land, industrial land, diplomatic land and municipal public facilities land are decaying structures. The land expansion rate of the Central Plains urban agglomeration is faster than the population growth rate, utilization of urban construction land is shifting from extensive land use to rationalization. Economic development and population growth are the fundamental driving forces for urban land expansion in the Central Plains urban agglomeration. KEY WORDS: Urban land expansion; Spatial and temporal characteristics; Spatial correlation; Driving factors; Central plains city cluster 目录 I 目 录 摘要............................................................................................................................ Ⅰ ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................. Ⅱ 1 绪论............................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 研究背景及意义.............................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 研究背景................................................................................................ 1 1.1.2 研究意义................................................................................................ 2 1.2 国内外研究综述.............................................................................................. 2 1.2.1 国外研究综述........................................................................................ 2 1.2.2 国内研究综述........................................................................................ 4 1.2.3 国内外研究述评.................................................................................... 8 1.3 研究方法及数据来源...................................................................................... 9 1.3.1 研究方法................................................................................................ 9 1.3.2 数据来源................................................................................................ 9 1.4 研究内容及技术路线...................................................................................... 9 1.4.1 研究内容................................................................................................ 9 1.4.2 技术路线图.......................................................................................... 11 1.5 创新点............................................................................................................ 11 2 相关概念及理论基础.............................................................................................. 13 2.1 相关概念的界定............................................................................................ 13 2.1.1 城市用地的特点.................................................................................. 13 2.1.2 城市用地扩张的内涵.......................................................................... 13 2.2 理论基础........................................................................................................ 14 2.2.1 土地集约利用理论.............................................................................. 14 2.2.2 区域差异性理论.................................................................................. 14 2.2.3 可持续发展理论.................................................................................. 15 2.3 本章小结........................................................................................................ 16 3 中原城市群城市用地扩张的时空格局特征分析.................................................. 17 3.1 研究区域概况................................................................................................ 17 3.2 城市用地扩张时序演化特征...........