苏州太湖新城项目风险管理研究 在四万亿计划的刺激之下，我国的房地产行业经历了飞速的发展，一度成为部分 地区的主要经济增长动力，在 GDP 中所占的比重也越来越高。而近些年以来，我国的 房地产市场开始逐渐被调控，“房住不炒”成为了主要的方针，去库存更成为了国内三 四线城市的主旋律。随着房地产的发展速度放慢，全国房地产行业开始重新洗牌，仅 2020 年上半年全国就有 208 家房地产企业倒闭，其余的房地产企业也进入了艰难求生 的阶段。在这样的背景下，房地产企业必须强化对项目的风险管理，以确保在所有的 项目都能按照既定标准和既定时间交付。 本文立足于项目风险管理的相关理论，在这些理论的基础上通过定性分析和定量 分析确定 Z 房地产公司太湖新城项目的风险，并提出相应的解决建议。基于此，本文 搜集项目相关的数据信息，通过对收集到的资料进行分析，用数据解释问题所在，再 次归纳完善苏州太湖新城住宅项目中的风险管理把控点。也就是从问题中找办法，从 方法中找出路，也正是这几个方面是困扰风险的主要因素，只有将这几个方面的问题 想全面，最大程度上规避所能考虑到问题，才能实实在在地掌握整个项目运营过程的 所有状况，将风险减到最少，企业才能从中获利，才能更加稳定的成长。立足相关理 论基础，进行苏州太湖新城项目风险因素识别，立足苏州太湖新城项目现状进行项目 的风险识别、分析与控制的研究，借助于层次分析的风险分析方法，展开整个苏州太 湖新城项目风险评估过程，最后提出苏州太湖新城项目的风险管理和解决措施。 关键词： 苏州太湖新城项目，风险管理，风险识别，风险分析，风险应对III Abstract Study on Risk Management of Residential Projects in Taihu New Town, Suzhou Under the stimulation of the four trillion plan, China's real estate industry has experienced rapid development, once becoming the main driving force of economic growth in some regions, and its proportion in GDP is also increasing. In recent years, China's real estate market began to be gradually regulated, "real estate speculation" has become the main policy, de stocking has become the main theme of domestic third and fourth tier cities. With the slow down of the development of real estate, the real estate industry in China has begun to reshuffle. In the first half of 2020, 208 real estate enterprises have closed down, and the rest of the real estate enterprises have entered the stage of survival. In this context, real estate enterprises must strengthen the risk management of projects to ensure that all projects can be delivered according to the established standards and time. Based on the relevant theories of project risk management, this paper determines the risk of Taihu new city project of Z real estate company through qualitative and quantitative analysis, and puts forward corresponding solutions. Based on this, this paper collects the data related to the project, analyzes the collected data, explains the problems with data, and summarizes and improves the risk management control points of Suzhou Taihu new town housing project. That is to find a way out of the problems and find a way out from the methods. These aspects are the main factors that perplex the risk. Only by comprehensively considering the problems in these aspects and avoiding the problems that can be considered to the greatest extent, can we really grasp all the conditions of the whole project operation process, reduce the risk to the minimum, and then the enterprise can benefit from it and achieve more stable results Long. Based on the relevant theoretical basis, the risk factors of Suzhou Taihu new city project are identified. Based on the current situation of Suzhou Taihu new city project, the risk identification, analysis and control of the project are studied. With the help of the risk analysis method of analytic hierarchy process, the risk assessment process of Suzhou Taihu new city project is carried out. Finally, the risk management and solution measures of Suzhou Taihu new city project are put forward. Keywords: Suzhou Taihu new town project, Risk management, Risk identification: risk analysis, Risk responseV 目 录 第 1 章 绪论......................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景..................................................................................................1 1.2 研究目的和研究意义..............................................................................4 1.3 相关研究理论基础..................................................................................6 1.3.1 项目管理理论....................................................................................6 1.3.2 风险管理理论....................................................................................6 1.4 研究方法与研究内容..............................................................................8 1.4.1 风险识别............................................................................................9 1.4.2 风险分析............................................................................................9 1.4.3 风险控制..........................................................................................10 第 2 章 苏州太湖新城与项目风险识别与分析 ...........................................11 2.1 项目风险识别方法与识别过程 ...........................................................11 2.1.1 项目风险识别方法选择..................................................................12 2.1.2 项目风险影响因素分析..................................................................12 2.1.3 项目风险识别过程..........................................................................16 2.2 项目风险定性分析过程........................................................................17 2.2.1 决策阶段风险分析..........................................................................17 2.2.2 筹备阶段风险分析..........................................................................19 2.2.3 实施阶段风险分析..........................................................................21 2.3.4 营销及交付阶段风险分析..............................................................22 第 3 章 苏州太湖新城项目风险定量分析....................................................24 3.1 项目风险定量分析方法选择................................................................24 3.2 层次分析法的应用................................................................................24 3.2.1 层次分析法的基本原理..................................................................24VI 3.2.2 层次分析法的应用步骤 .................................................................25 3.3 项目风险定量分析过程 .......................................................................25 3.3.1 建立层次结构模型..........................................................................25 3.3.2 确定判断矩阵..................................................................................27 3.3.3 计算权重向量及一致性检验 .........................................................29 第 4 章 苏州太湖新城项目风险应对措施 ...................................................32 4.1 决策阶段风险应对措施 .......................................................................32 4.2 筹备阶段风险应对措施 .......................................................................33 4.2.1 加强图纸会审..................................................................................33 4.2.2 建立管控体系..................................................................................34 4.2.3 完善监督制度..................................................................................34 4.3 实施阶段风险应对措施 .......................................................................36 4.3.1 完善风险管理的组织架构 .............................................................36 4.3.2 建立全方位的施工风险管理的控制体系 .....................................37 4.3.3 基于 BIM 建立工期风险管理机制................................................39 4.4 营销及交付阶段风险应对措施 ...........................................................39 4.4.1 制定灵活营销措施..........................................................................39 4.4.2 深挖老用户群体.............................................................