目前上市公司面临的国内外经济坏境越来复杂，竞争越来越激烈，风险越来越多， 企业随时都有破产的风险，所以本人选择了长沙上市公司破产的可能性研究，旨在为 相关部门和上市公司及早发现财务问题，提前采取预防措施。 本文首先介绍了国内外对财务预警的理论研究，选择了阿尔曼Z评分值作为研究 财务预警的模型。其次，选取最近8年的长沙上市公司财务数据，利用阿尔曼财务预 警模型，计算了Z评分值。第四章针对五个相关指标进行了敏感性分析，临界点分析。 第五章找出长沙上市公司存在流动资金缺乏、总资产报酬率偏低等问题，剖析其内外 部原因，指出这些破产可能性较高公司的风险点，并提出防范风险的建议，从而保障 投资者和债权人的利益，降低企业成本，达到防微杜渐的目的。 本文在预警模型上进行了初步探索，对Z值进行了敏感性分析，从而根据这些相 关系统与Z值的敏感性得知影响Z值的关键因素，建立财务预警系统，预防公司破产， 减少公司损失，解决公司财务危机。 关键词： 阿尔曼Z模型；上市公司；破产可能性；财务危机 河北地质大学硕士学位论文 V ABSTRACT Nowadays, the economic environment which listed companies confronted with is mor e and more complicated both in domestic and abroad. The completion becomes fiercer and fiercer accompanied with more and more risks. As a result, enterprises are at the edge of ba nkruptcy. That's the reason why I choose the research topic on the bankrupt possibility of listed companies in Changsha. Primarily, this paper introduces the theoretical research on financial early-warning bot h in domestic and abroad, selecting the Altman Z Score Value as the research model of fin ancial early-warning. Secondly, we collect the financial data of Changsha listed companies in the recent 8 years, applying the Altman Financial Early-warning model to calculate the z-score value, analyzing the problems Changsha listed companies facing and dissecting the reasons. In chapter 4, targeting at the five related indicators, we carry out sensitivity analy sis and critical point analysis. In the fifth chapter, it finds out the problems of Changsha list ed companies such as lack of circulating funds, and low return on total assets, then analyze s the internal and external causes, thus pointing out the risk points of these companies with high bankruptcy possibility, and some suggestions to prevent risks are put forward, so as to protect the interests of investors and creditors, reduce the cost of enterprises and achieve t he purpose of preventing bad results. To be concluded, this paper makes a preliminary exploration on the early warning mo del and conducts a sensitivity analysis on the Z value, aiming to acquire the key factors aff ecting the Z value based on relevant systems and the sensitivity of Z values, then to establi sh a financial early warning system which can prevent the company from bankruptcy, redu ce the company's losses and solve the company's financial crisis.