十九大报告指出，要加快建立多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度， 让全体人民住有所居。为了缓解住房市场供需矛盾，有效解决中低收入家庭安居问题， 全面实现“住有所居”目标，国家大力推行保障性住房建设。虽然我国保障性住房建 设不断加强，保障性住房体系不断完善，但是我国保障性住房供给仍显不足，存在住 房保障制度缺陷、融资渠道单一、效率低下等问题。因此探究保障性住房供给不足的 原因，影响保障性住房供给规模的因素成为学者们关注的焦点。 现有针对保障性住房供给规模影响因素的文献研究中，大多针对某一省市或地区， 采用经济适用房数据替代保障性住房数据，对影响因素进行识别研究，研究数据缺乏 一定的时效性且未对影响程度和影响方式展开深入研究。基于此，本文对保障性住房 供给规模指标进行了测算，采用2004-2016年全国29个省市面板数据，利用时序全 局主成分分析和回归分析相结合的方法对保障性住房供给规模影响因素指标进行识 别筛选，筛选出主要影响因素。然后建立PVAR模型对保障性住房供给规模及其主要 影响因素之间的动态互动关系进行了实证研究并对东中西部地区的影响因素进行了 对比分析。 研究发现：影响保障性住房供给规模的主要因素为商品房平均价格、住宅土地供 应面积、恩格尔系数和人均财政收入；保障性住房供给规模抑制自身规模的扩大，具 有一定的惯性压力；商品房平均价格的增加对保障性住房供给规模呈促进作用；住宅 土地供应面积的增加短期会抑制保障性住房供给规模，之后呈显著促进作用；恩格尔 系数对保障性住房供给规模存在一定促进作用，但是影响程度较小；人均财政收入的 增多对保障性住房供给规模均存在一定促进作用；东中西部保障性住房供给规模的主 要影响因素存在差异且保障性住房供给一定程度上促进商品房市场发展。 关键词：保障性住房；供给规模；PVAR模型；全局主成分； II Abstract The report of the 19th National Congress pointed out that we would move faster to put in place a housing system that ensures supply through multiple sources, provides housing support through multiple channels, and encourages both housing purchase and renting. This would make us better placed to meet the housing needs of all of our people. In order to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand in the housing market, effectively solve the problem of housing for low-income and middle-income families and fully meet the housing needs of all of our people, the state vigorously promotes the construction of indemnificatory apartments. Although the construction of indemnificatory apartments in China has been continuously strengthened and the system of indemnificatory apartments has been continuously improved, the supply of indemnificatory apartments in China is still insufficient. There are problems such as defects in the housing security system, single financing channels and low efficiency. Therefore, exploring the reasons for the shortage of indemnificatory apartments and the factors affecting the scale of indemnificatory apartments supply has become the focus of scholars. Most of the existing literature review on the factors affecting the scale of indemnificatory apartments supply is aimed at a certain province, city or region, using affordable housing data to replace the indemnificatory apartments data and identifying the influencing factors. The research data lacks certain timeliness and there is no in-depth study of the degree of the influence and the way of the impact. Based on this, this paper measures the scale of indemnificatory apartments supply, adopts the panel data of 29 provinces and cities in China from 2004 to 2016, and uses the time series global principal component analysis and regression analysis to identify and screen the indicators of the factors affecting the supply scale of indemnificatory apartments. Then the empirical research on the dynamic interaction between the scale of indemnificatory apartments supply and its main influencing factors is carried out, and the influencing factors of the eastern, central and western regions are compared and analyzed. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: Firstly, the main factors affecting the supply scale of indemnificatory apartments are the average price of commercial housing, the supply area of residential land, the Engel coefficient and the per capita fiscal revenue. II I Secondly, the scale of the supply of indemnificatory apartments inhibits the expansion of its own scale and has a certain inertia pressure. Thirdly, the increase in the average price of commercial housing will promote the scale of indemnificatory apartments supply and the increase in the supply of residential land will inhibit the scale of the supply of indemnificatory apartments in the short term, and then play a significant role in promoting. Fourthly, the Engel coefficient will promote the scale of supply of indemnificatory apartments, but the degree of impact is small and the increase in per capita fiscal revenue has a certain role in promoting the supply of indemnificatory apartments. There are differences in the main influencing factors of the supply scale of indemnificatory apartments in the eastern, central and western regions. And the supply of indemnificatory apartments promotes the development of the commercial housing market to some extent. Key words: Indemnificatory apartments; Supply scale; PVAR model; Global principal component; IV 目 录 摘要 ................................................................................................................................. I Abstract ............................................................................................................................... III 第一章 绪论 .................................................................................................................... - 1 - 1.1 研究背景 ..................................................................................................................... - 1 - 1.2 研究目的与意义 ......................................................................................................... - 3 - 1.2.1 研究目的 ........................................................................................................... - 3 - 1.2.2 研究意义 ........................................................................................................... - 3 - 1.3 研究内容与框架 ......................................................................................................... - 4 - 1.3.1 研究内容 ........................................................................................................... - 4 - 1.3.2 研究框架 ........................................................................................................... - 5 - 1.4 研究方法 ..................................................................................................................... - 6 - 1.5 创新点 ......................................................................................................................... - 6 - 第二章 相关概念与文献综述 ........................................................................................ - 9 - 2.1 保障性住房相关概念 ................................................................................................. - 9 - 2.1.1 住房保障 ........................................................................................................... - 9 - 2.1.2 保障性住房 ....................................................................................................... - 9 - 2.1.3 保障性住房供给规模 ..................................................................................... - 10 - 2.2 保障性住房供给体系相关研究 ............................................................................... - 10 - 2.2.1 保障性住房供给理论相关研究 ..................................................................... - 10 - 2.2.2 保障性住房供给政策相关研究 ..................................................................... - 11 - 2.2.3 保障性住房供求关系相关研究 ..................................................................... - 11 - 2.3 保障性住房供给规模影响因素相关研究 ............................................................... - 13 - 2.4 文献评述 ...........................................................................................................