I 摘要 造纸业作为国民经济的基础性产业之一，与社会经济发展、人民生活需求息息相关， 是国际公认的“永不衰竭”的工业。造纸业具有较强的产业关联性，受国家环保政策和 宏观经济循环的影响明显。近几年，随着我国经济发展的不景气及环保政策的加强，造 纸业企业的财务风险问题不断显现，资本结构失衡、资金不足、盈利能力降低等状态突 出。BH公司自2013年出现融资环境恶化，资金周转困难等局面，企业造纸主业效益低 下，产品结构不合理，阶段性供需矛盾突出，财务风险急剧上升。因此，降低企业财务 风险，提升财务管理水平，对增强企业生产力和核心竞争力具有至关重要的作用。 本文以财务风险管理理论为基础，运用文献研究、案例分析等方法，在充分掌握BH 公司财务现状下，对BH公司财务风险管理存在的问题原因进行分析，并利用BH公司2014 年至2018年的财务数据，结合层次分析法，选用可以反映偿债能力、营运能力、现金 流量能力、盈利能力和发展能力五方面一级指标，以及15个二级指标建立财务风险评 价模型，邀请造纸业和财务管理专家对指标进行重要性比较，构建判断矩阵得出指标权 重，依据量化数值和权重值计算得出对BH公司的评价结果，最后提出了一系列的优化 建议。 研究发现：造成BH公司财务风险问题的主要原因是资本结构失衡，流动负债过高， 存货周转率低。针对BH公司的具体财务风险，提出财务风险管理的优化措施。主要有 拓宽融资渠道增强融资风险管理水平，多措并举加强营运资金风险管理，完善预算流程 确保现金流管理有效性，理性投资增强财务风险抵御能力，健全公司内控制度树立财务 风险意识，从而提高财务管理水平。 关键词：造纸业；层次分析法；财务风险；资本结构 山东理工大学硕士学位论文 ABSTRACT Ⅱ ABSTRACT As one of the basic industries of the national economy, paper industry is closely related to the social and economic development and people's living needs, and is internationally recognized as a "never-failing" industry. The paper industry has a strong industrial relationship and is influenced by the national environmental protection policy and the macro-economic cycle. In recent years, with the depression of China's economic development and the strengthening of environmental protection policies, the financial risks of paper enterprises have been emerging, such as the imbalance of capital structure, lack of funds and reduced profitability. BH company has suffered from the deterioration of financing environment and the difficulty in capital turnover since 2013. The main business of papermaking of the company has low benefits, unreasonable product structure, prominent contradiction between supply and demand in stages, and sharply increased financial risks. Therefore, it is of vital importance to reduce financial risks and improve financial management level in order to enhance enterprise productivity and core competitiveness. Based on the theory of financial risk management, this paper uses literature research, case analysis and other methods to analyze the causes of the problems in the financial risk management of BH company, and uses the financial data of BH company from 2014 to 2018, combined with the analytic hierarchy process, to select the ones that can reflect the solvency, operating capacity, cash flow capacity and profitability The first level indicators of capacity and development capacity, as well as 15 second level indicators, establish financial risk evaluation model, invite paper industry and financial management experts to compare the importance of the indicators, build a judgment matrix to get the weight of the indicators, calculate the evaluation results of BH company based on the quantitative value and weight value, and finally put forward a series of optimization suggestions. The results show that the main causes of BH's financial risk are imbalance of capital structure, high current liabilities and low inventory turnover. According to the specific financial risks of BH company, the optimization measures of financial risk management are proposed. There are mainly to broaden the financing channels to enhance the level of financing risk management, take multiple measures to strengthen the risk management of working capital, improve the budget process to ensure the effectiveness of cash flow 山东理工大学硕士学位论文 ABSTRACT Ⅲ management, rational investment to enhance the ability to resist financial risks, improve the company's internal control system to establish financial risk awareness, so as to improve the level of financial management. Key words: The paper industry ;AHP; Financial risk; The capital structure 山东理工大学硕士学位论文 目录 Ⅳ 目录 摘要........................................................... I 第一章 绪 论.................................................. 1 1.1 研究背景与意义 ..................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ..................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ..................................................................................... 2 1.2 国内外研究现状 ..................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 国外研究现状 ............................................................................. 3 1.2.2 国内研究现状 ............................................................................. 4 1.2.3 国内外研究述评 .......................................................................... 6 1.3 研究目的与内容 ..................................................................................... 7 1.3.1 研究目的 ..................................................................................... 7 1.3.2 研究内容 ..................................................................................... 7 1.4 研究方法 ................................................................................................. 7 第二章 相关概念及理论基础 ...................................... 9 2.1 基础概念 ................................................................................................. 9 2.1.1 财务风险 ..................................................................................... 9 2.1.2财务风险评估 .............................................................................. 9 2.2 财务风险评估流程 .................................................................................. 9 2.3 层次分析法的理论分析 ........................................................................ 10 2.3.1 层次分析法的基本原理 ............................................................ 10 2.3.2 层次分析法的特点 .................................................................... 14 第三章 BH公司财务风险现状分析 ................................... 15 3.1 公司基本情况 ....................................................................................... 15 3.2 公司财务状况 ....................................................................................... 13 3.2.1 筹资状况 ................................................................................... 13 3.2.2投资状况 .................................................................................... 15 3.2.3营运状况 .................................................................................... 16 3.2.4现金流量状况 ............................................................................ 19 3.3 公司财务风险现状概况 ........................................................................ 19 3.3.1 筹资风险现状分析 .................................................................... 19 3.3.2 投资风险现状分析 .................................................................... 22 3.3.3 营运风险现状分析 .................................................................... 22 3.3.4 现金流量风险现状分析 ............................................................ 22 第四章 BH公司财务风险成因分析 .................................. 23 山东理工大学硕士学位论文 目录 Ⅴ 4.1 公司具体财务风险成因分析 ................................................................ 23 4.1.1融资风险管理水平偏低 ............................................................. 23 4.1.2营运风险管理力度不足 ............................................................. 23 4.1.3现金流风险管理实效较差 ........