近年来，随着我国经济的快速发展和对外贸易规模的不断扩大，市场经济环境变 化日益复杂，加大了企业经营管理活动中的财务风险。企业要想持续良好的发展就需 要适应经济环境变化并提高财务风险管控能力，财务风险预警管理是企业财务风险管 理的重要方法之一，对企业科学准确地制定发展战略和经营方案尤为重要。 纺织服装行业作为我国重要的产业支柱之一，近年来正面临着来自各方面的压力 与挑战。一方面，我国国内服装销售量增速大幅放缓；另一方面，大量国外服装品牌 进入我国市场，市场竞争愈加激烈。同时，由于纺织服装行业存在季节性明显、产品 更新快的特点，企业普遍面临较大的库存压力，这些都给我国纺织服装类企业带来了 一定程度的财务风险。因此，对纺织服装类企业进行财务风险预警管理的研究就较为 迫切，进行财务风险预警系统的构建能够帮助管理者提前发现财务风险，分析财务风 险的程度和原因，制定相应的处理措施，对企业的可持续发展有着重要的现实意义。 本文以女装生产和销售为主的上市公司LB公司为研究对象，基于风险管理理论、 信息不对称理论、财务预警理论等基础理论，采用案例研究法、比较分析法、定性和 定量分析法对 LB 公司的财务风险情况进行分析。首先，运用单变量分析方法对 LB 公司的偿债能力、盈利能力、营运能力、发展能力和现金流状况进行分析，得出 LB 公司目前财务风险较大的结论。然后，从外部环境和内部环境两个方面，对 LB 公司 产生财务危机进行警源探究。最后，笔者提出财务风险预警系统的构建可以帮助 LB 公司及时发现财务风险，提高财务风险预警管理水平，运用多变量分析方法中较常用 的 Lojistic 回归模型对 LB 公司进行财务风险预警分析，得到 LB 公司处于财务风险重 警级别的结论，该模型也可以为纺织服装行业中其他企业进行财务风险判别和防控起 到借鉴作用。 本文对 LB 公司应对财务风险的建议为：一是优化资本结构和负债规模；二是加 强对存货和应收账款的管理；三是重视投资项目决策；四是重视研发活动，增加对研 发的投入；五是线上线下渠道融合，引入直播销售方式。为了保障 LB 公司财务风险 预警系统的有效实施，需要从以下三方面提供系统运行的保障措施：一是完善财务风 险监测和报告流程；二是重视和完善内部控制制度；三是加强信息化建设。 关键词：纺织服装行业；财务风险预警；财务风险预警机制LB 服饰股份有限公司财务风险预警管理研究 I ABSTRACT In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy and the continuous expansion of the scale of foreign trade, the market economic environment has become increasingly complex, which has increased the financial risks in the operation and management activities of enterprises. In order to achieve sustainable and sound development, enterprises must adapt to the changes in economic environment and improve their ability to control and control financial risks. Financial risk early warning management is one of the important methods for financial risk management of enterprises, which is particularly important for enterprises to scientifically and accurately formulate development strategies and business plans. Textile and garment industry, as one of the important industrial pillars in China, is facing pressure and challenges from all sides in recent years. On the one hand, China's domestic clothing sales growth slowed down sharply; On the other hand, a large number of foreign clothing brands enter our market, the market competition is more and more fierce. At the same time, due to the obvious seasonality of textile and garment industry, rapid product update , enterprises are generally faced with greater inventory pressure, which brings a certain degree of financial risk to China's textile and garment enterprises. On textile and apparel enterprise, therefore, is urgent to research on the financial risk early warning management of financial risk early warning system is built to help managers found that financial risk in advance, analyzes the degree and reasons of financial risk, formulate corresponding measures, has important practical significance for the sustainable development of the enterprise. Based on the risk management theory, information asymmetry theory, financial early warning theory and other basic theories, this paper adopts case study method, comparative analysis method, qualitative and quantitative analysis method to analyze the financial risk of LB Company, a listed company mainly engaged in the production and sales of women's wear, as the research object. First, univariate analysis was used to analyze the solvency, profitability, operating capacity, development capacity and cash flow status of LB company, and a conclusion was drawn that LB company's current financial risk was relatively large. Then, from the external environment and internal environment, the financial crisis of LB company was investigated. Finally, the author puts forward the construction of the financial risk early warning system can help LB company found that financial risk in time, improveLB 服饰股份有限公司财务风险预警管理研究 II the level of financial risk early warning management, using multivariate analysis method is commonly used in Lojistic regression model to simulate the LB company financial risk early warning analysis, get the conclusion of LB company in financial risk warning level, the model can also for other companies in the textile and garment industry to be used for reference in and determine the financial risk prevention and control. The Suggestions for LB to deal with financial risks in this paper are as follows: first, optimize capital structure and debt scale; Second, strengthen the management of inventory and accounts receivable; Third, attach importance to the decision of investment project; Fourth, attach importance to Research and development activities and increase investment in Research and development activities ; Fifth, the integration of online and offline channels and the introduction of live broadcast sales. In order to ensure the effective implementation of LB Company's financial risk early warning system, guarantee measures for system operation should be provided from the following three aspects: first, improve the financial risk monitoring and reporting process; Second, pay attention to and improve the internal control system; Third, we will strengthen it application. KEYWORDS: Textile and Clothing Industry; Financial Risk Pre-warning; Financial Risk Pre-warning Mechanism.LB 服饰股份有限公司财务风险预警管理研究 2 目 录 第一章 绪论......................... 1 第一节 研究背景与意义...................1 一、研究背景及目的.......................1 二、研究意义....2 第二节 文献综述2 一、国外文献综述...........................2 二、国内文献综述...........................4 三、文献评述....6 第三节 研究内容与方法...................6 一、研究内容与思路.......................6 二、研究方法....8 第四节 本文创新点.............................9 一、 研究视角的创新.....................9 二、研究方法的创新.......................9 第二章 相关概念界定与理论基础...................11 第一节 相关概念界定.....................11 一、财务风险..11 二、财务危机..11 三、财务风险预警.........................12 四、财务风预警机制.....................12 第二节 相关理论基础.....................12 一、风险管理理论.........................12 二、信息不对称理论.....................13 三、财务预警理论.........................13 第三节 企业财务预警相关方法.....14 一、企业财务预警的定性分析法.14 二、企业财务预警的定量分析法.15LB 服饰股份有限公司财务风险预警管理研究 3 第三章 我国纺织服装行业现状及 LB 公司财务风险分析..........16 第一节 我国纺织服装行业发展现状............................16 一、我国纺织服装行业发展现状.16 二、我国纺织服装行业基本特征.18 三、我国纺织服装行业主要风险.19 第二节 LB 公司概况........................20 一、LB 公司简介............................20 二、LB 公司经营模式....................21 三、LB 公司经营现状....................22 第三节 LB 公司财务风险分析........23 一、偿债能力计算与分析.............23 二、盈利能力计算与分析.............25 三、营运能力计算与分析.............26 四、发展能力计算与分析.............28 五、现金流计算与分析.................29 第四节 LB 公司财务风险诊断结果31 一、资产负债率过高，债务压力增大........................31 二、存货周转率降低，存在减值风险........................31 三、内源融资能力明显下滑.........32 四、对外投资持续亏损，战略失效............................32