随着市场经济的飞速发展，各企业之间的竞争愈演愈烈，为赢得更多的市场，建立有效 的供应链管理模式就显得尤为重要。具有良好供应链管理模式的企业相比较于其他企业所具 备的优势更为明显，从本质上来讲供应链竞争同样是企业竞争的一种形式。不可否认卓越的 供应链会加速企业的发展，反之也将极大程度制约其发展速度。因此企业在建立供应链管理 模式时应从多方面进行综合考虑，使其尽可能规避风险，保障企业的快速平稳发展。对供应 链成因和管理方法的分析，对风险识别、评估和制定应对策略，从而降低风险带来的损失就 变得尤为重要。 在以上背景下，本篇文章以苏州住电装有限公司作为研究对象，就线束制造行业而言， 在进行风险管理研究时应将理论与实践充分相结合，全面分析住电装供应链管理可能存在的 风险，并采取相应的方法与对策来减小风险带来的不良影响。 首先结合制造业的特点利用 SCOR 模型对住电装供应链的风险进行识别，以 SCOR 模型 为基础，通过查阅相关资料文献对模型体系进一步扩展，考虑了企业风险意识与员工素质、 合作伙伴关系的协调、环境等因素，使得模型能够全面适应住电装供应链运作情况。而后， 在全面识别风险的前提下，对住电装供应链进行风险评估，选择了两种分析方法，层次分析 法和模糊综合评价法，这为后续制定应对策略提供了强有力保障。最后，针对不同级别的风 险制定了预防、规避和分散策略，通过完善对供应链的监控机制，改善管理的漏洞，进而使 风险减小或者消失。同时，还引入风险预警机制理念，完善住电装对供应链风险管控机制。 本文旨在可以让住电装全面认识供应链风险，并且在充分识别和评估其危害性的基础上 建立合理的应对机制，减少风险带来的破坏。并且希望本研究可以对其他类似的制造类实体 企业的供应链风险管理起到指导作用。 关键词: 供应链管理，风险管理，SCOR 模型，层次分析法，模糊综合评价II Abstract With the rapid development of the market economy, the intensity of competition between various enterprises is intensifying. To win more markets, it is particularly important to establish an effective supply management model. Enterprises with good supply chain management models have more obvious advantages than other companies. In essence, supply chain competition is also a form of enterprise competition. It is undeniable that an excellent supplychain will accelerate the development of the enterprise, and on the contrary, it will greatly restrict its development speed. Therefore, when establishing a supply chain management model, enterprises should consider comprehensively from various aspects to avoid risks as much as possible and ensure the rapid and stable development of enterprises. For the analysis of the causes and management methods of the supply chain, it is necessary to formulate risk identification and evaluation strategies, so that it is particularly important to reduce the losses caused by risks. Under the above background, this study takes SDM-S as the research object. As far as the wire harness manufacturing industry is concerned, the theory and practice should be fully combined when conducting risk management research, and a comprehensive analysis of the possible existence of SDM-S SupplyChain Management Risks, and adopt corresponding methods and countermeasures to reduce the adverse effects of risks. First, the SCOR model is used to identify the risks of the SDM-S supply chain based on the characteristics of the manufacturing industry. Based on the SCOR model, the model system is further expanded by referring to relevant documents and documents, taking into account the risk awareness of the enterprise, the qualityof employees, the coordination and environment of the partnership Other factors make the model fullyadaptable to the operation of SDM-S supplychain. Then, on the premise of comprehensively identifying risks, two analysis methods were selected in the risk assessment of the SDM-S supply chain, the analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which provided a strong guarantee for the subsequent formulation of response strategies. Finally, strategies for prevention, avoidance, and decentralization were formulated for different levels of risk. By improving the monitoring mechanism of the supply chain, management loopholes were improved, and the risks were reduced or eliminated. At the same time, the concept of risk early warning mechanism was introduced to improve the risk management and control mechanism ofIII SDM-S for the supply chain. The purpose of this article is to enable SDM-S to fully understand the risks of the supply chain and establish a reasonable response mechanism on the basis of fully identifying and evaluating its hazards to reduce the damage caused by the risks. It is hoped that this research can guide the supply chain risk management of other similar manufacturing entities. Keywords:SupplyChainManagement,RiskManagement,SCORModel,AnalyticHierarchyprocess, Fuzzy Comprehensive EvaluationIV 目录 摘要............................................................................................................................................................................I Abstract......................................................................................................................................................................II 第一章 绪论............................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 研究背景与研究意义................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ....................................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 研究现状.................................................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 国内外供应链风险相关文献综述 ............................................................................................................ 3 1.3.1 供应链风险定义相关文献综述 ................................................................................................... 3 1.3.2 风险分类相关文献综述 ............................................................................................................... 5 1.3.3 风险识别相关文献综述 ............................................................................................................... 6 1.3.4 风险评估相关文献综述 ............................................................................................................... 7 1.4 研究内容与研究框架................................................................................................................................ 9 1.4.1 研究内容 ....................................................................................................................................... 9 1.4.2 研究框架 ....................................................................................................................................... 9 第二章 供应链及供应链风险相关理论基础 ........................................................................................................11 2.1 供应链及供应链风险等相关的定义及特征............................................................................................11 2.1.1 供应链相关的定义及特征 ..........................................................................................................11 2.1.2 供应链管理相关的定义及特征 ..................................................................................................11 2.1.3 供应链风险的定义及特征 ......................................................................................................... 12 2.1.4 供应链风险管理的定义与具体流程.......................................................................................... 13 2.2 供应链风险识别方法——SCOR 模型................................................................................................... 14 2.3 供应链风险评估方法.....................................................