创业过程中存在很多不确定性，这些不确定性会带来很多风险，尤其是对于大学生科技创 新项目，如何控制风险，是一个非常重要的管理内容。有效管理创业项目风险，是创业项目得 以成功的关键。根据科技型项目在创业早期的特点，了解和识别它即将面对的发展风险，并构 建大学生创新项目风险评估体系，加强对大学生科技型创业项目的项目风险管理，有益于对正 在创业的项目能提供更加专业的服务，给予大学生创业新的活动效率，对于国家的科技发展来 说，也是非常有意义的。 本文以大学生科技创业J项目的风险管理为研究对象，从大学生创业者的角度出发，首先 在对国内外相关学者在该领域的研究成果进行分析的基础上，总结了本文研究所需要的理论基 础，其中主要包含了创业的概念以及风险管理的理论，并对大学生创业软件项目风险管理的特 点进行了论述。其次，阐述了J项目设计、开发基础和项目规划以及进展的概况，并对项目风 险管理的总体流程以及其中存在的问题进行了有针对性的分析。再次，对J项目风险管理进行 了系统化的设计，其中包含了项目风险管理的分析、设计思路以及方案。最后结合大学生自身、 学校以及政府三个方面提出项目实施的保障措施，为大学生创业降低风险提供最大程度的保障。 关键词：大学生，科技创新，创业项目，风险管理，系统优化 大学生科技创业J项目风险管理研究 II ABSTRACT There are many uncertainties in the process of entrepreneurship, which will bring a lot of risks, especially for college students' scientific and technological innovation projects. How to control the risks is a very important management content. Effective management of entrepreneurial project risks is the key to success. According to the characteristics of scientific and technological projects in the early stage of entrepreneurship, we should understand and identify the development risks it is about to face, build a risk assessment system for college students' innovation projects, strengthen the project risk management for college students' scientific and technological entrepreneurship projects, which is conducive to providing more professional services for the projects that are starting their own businesses, providing new activity efficiency for college students' entrepreneurship. And it is also of great significance for the development of science and technology in the country. This article takes the risk management of the J-project of science and technology entrepreneurship for college students as the research object. From the perspective of college students' entrepreneurs, first of all, based on the analysis of relevant domestic and foreign scholars' research results in this field, it summarizes the theoretical basis needed for this research. It mainly includes the concept of entrepreneurship and the theory of risk management, and discusses the characteristics of risk management of entrepreneurial software projects for college students. Secondly, it expounds the overview of the J project design, development foundation, project planning, and progress, and makes a targeted analysis of the overall process of project risk management and its existing problems. Thirdly, the J project risk management is systematically designed, which includes the analysis, design ideas and schemes of project risk management. Finally, combined with the government, schools, and college students themselves, the proposed measures for project implementation are provided to provide the greatest degree of protection for college students to reduce risks. Keywords: college students, scientific and technological innovation, entrepreneurial projects, risk management, system optimization 南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 III 目 录 第一章 导论 .................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 研究背景 ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 研究意义 ................................................................................................................................. 2 1.3 国内外研究现状...................................................................................................................... 2 1.3.1 国外研究现状 ............................................................................................................... 2 1.3.2 国内研究现状 ............................................................................................................... 4 1.4 研究内容和研究方法 .............................................................................................................. 6 1.4.1 研究内容....................................................................................................................... 6 1.4.2 研究方法....................................................................................................................... 6 1.4.3 技术路线....................................................................................................................... 8 第二章 相关理论基础 ................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 相关概念介绍.......................................................................................................................... 9 2.1.1 创业 .............................................................................................................................. 9 2.1.2 风险 ............................................................................................................................ 10 2.1.3 风险管理..................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 项目风险管理........................................................................................................................ 11 2.2.1 项目风险识别 ............................................................................................................. 11 2.2.2 项目风险评价 ............................................................................................................. 12 2.2.3 项目风险控制 ............................................................................................................. 13 2.2.4 项目风险监控 ............................................................................................................. 13 2.3 软件项目风险管理的特点 .................................................................................................... 14 第三章 大学生科技创业项目风险管理现状分析 ..................................................................... 15 3.1 J项目简介 .............................................................................................................................. 15 3.1.1 项目设计概况 ............................................................................................................. 15 3.1.2 J项目开发基础 ........................................................................................................... 16 3.1.3 J项目规划 ................................................................................................................... 16 3.1.4 J项目开发进展 ........................................................................................................... 17 3.2 J项目风险管理现状 .............................................................................................................. 17 3.2.1 J项目管理现状 ........................................................................................................... 17 大学生科技创业J项目风险管理研究 IV 3.2.2 J项目风险管理存在的主要问题 ............................................................................... 18 第四章 J项目风险管理 .............................................................................................................. 24 4.1 风险管理的目标.................................................................................................................... 24 4.2 J项目风险管理思路 .............................................................................................................. 24 4.3 J项目风险识别 ...................