全球一次性医疗防护服市场主要为美国和欧洲市常该行业需要大量的劳动力来 进行缝制工作，属于劳动密集型行业。在过去的三十年中，中国大陆地区是该行业的 主要生产地。2000 年至今，柬埔寨的一次性医用防护服生产已经发展了二十年，逐渐 在全球医疗耗材供应链中占据一定地位。近十年来，中国因为人工成本，土地租赁成 本的持续上升，导致竞争力不断下降，给柬埔寨的制造发展让出一些空间。2019 年的 中美贸易战之下，中国的医疗耗材出口美国市场遭受重击。而柬埔寨因拥有对美关税 优惠政策，对美出口占有极大优势，因此在柬埔寨的该类工厂订单量猛增。此外，随 着 2019 年秋天美国流感疫情和 2020 年初全球新冠病毒疫情的爆发，柬埔寨工厂的订 单量持续增长，对工厂的生产管理造成巨大压力。 在这样的背景下，柬埔寨 M 工厂短期内客户需求加大，订单快速增长。而 M 工 厂没有及时修正需求预测，未及时确认原料供应商供货情况，或快速调整工厂陈旧的 生产排程，造成原料短缺、生产混乱、交货困难、客户满意度下降。故而，本文通过 对 M 工厂组织结构、生产工序的介绍和对企业内存在问题的发现和分析，结合对国 内外预测方法和生产排程的现状研究，寻找合适的预测方法修正预测订单量满足客户 的需求，再通过调整生产排程来优化 M 工厂的采购计划和生产活动。本论文运用 Holt’s 模型修正其需求预测，运用精益排程确定优化生产方案，并通过实施过程中的 监控，制度和人力资源保障措施来辅助优化方案。 关键词：订单；需求预测；产能；精益排程III Abstract The key markets of global disposable medical protective equipment are in the United States and Europe. It’s a labor intensive industry because the producing needs a lot of labor force to carry on sewing work. For the past three decades, most of the producing has been in Chinese mainland. Since 2000, the production in Cambodia has developed for two decades, and gradually occupied a certain position in the global medical supply chain. In the past decade, with the continuous rise of labor cost and land lease in China, its competitiveness has been declining, leaving some space for Cambodia’s manufacturing development. InthetradewarbetweenChinaandtheunited states in 2019, China suffered a heavy blow in the export market of Medical consumables to the United States. Cambodia has a great advantage in exporting to the United Sates with Preferential tariff policies. In addition, with the influenza epidemic in the fall of 2019 and the COVID 19 in early 2020, the orders in Cambodia keep increase, which put great pressure on the Cambodia factories’producing. In this context, M factory in Cambodia has seen a rapid increase in customer demand and orders in the short term. However, M factory didn’t timely revise the demand forecast, confirm the supply situation of raw material suppliers, or quickly adjust the obsolete production schedule of the factory, resulting in the shortage of raw material, chaotic production, difficult delivery, and customer satisfaction decreasing. So, with the introduction of the M factory organization structure, production process and the detection, this paper searched M factory’s problems by studying forecast methodsandthepresentstatusofproductionschedulingresearch.ThispaperusesHolt's model to revise its demand forecast, uses lean scheduling to determine the optimize production plan, and assists the optimization plan through monitoring, system and human resource guarantee measures in the implementation process. Keywords：Order; Demand Forecast; Capacity; Lean Scheduling目录 致谢..................................................................................................................................................I 摘要................................................................................................................................................II Abstract .........................................................................................................................................III 第 1 章 绪论.................................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题的背景、目的和意义 ................................................................................................1 1.1.1 选题的背景 ..............................................................................................................1 1.1.2 选题的目的 ..............................................................................................................1 1.1.3 选题的意义 ..............................................................................................................2 1.2 国内外研究现状...................................................................................................................2 1.2.1 需求预测的国内外研究现状..................................................................... 2 1.2.2 生产排程的国内外研究现状..................................................................... 3 1.2.3 国内外研究评述......................................................................................... 4 1.3 研究内容、方法和框架结构............................................................................................5 1.3.1 研究内容..................................................................................................... 5 1.3.2 研究方法..................................................................................................... 6 1.3.3 研究框架结构............................................................................................. 7 第 2 章 企业现状及主要问题..................................................................................................8 2.1 企业现状 ................................................................................................................................8 2.1.1 组织结构..................................................................................................... 8 2.1.2 生产工序..................................................................................................... 9 2.2 企业生产存在的问题........................................................................................................10 2.2.1 订单暴增给生产带来巨大压力................................................................ 10 2.2.2 需求预测不科学....................................................................................... 11 2.2.3 生产排程能力薄弱................................................................................... 12 2.3 企业存在问题的成因分析 ..............................................................................................13 2.3.1 工厂缺乏应对政策变化及疫情突发的提前布局................................... 13 2.3.2 M 工厂缺乏精确的需求预测方法 ........................................................... 142.3.3 M 工厂排程方法滞后 ............................................................................... 15 2.4 外部环境分析 .....................................................................................................................17 2.4.1 外部一般环境分析................................................................................... 17 2.4.2 外部具体环境分析................................................................................... 19 第 3 章 M 工厂需求预测和生产排程分析........................................................................23 3.1 需求预测理论及运用分析 ..............................................................................................23 3.1.1 简单指数平滑法....................................................................................... 23 3.1.2 趋势调整的指数平滑法（Holt’s 模型）................................................ 25 3.1.3 最优平滑指数的选择............................................................................... 26 3.2 精益生产的排程概念及分析..........................................................................................28 3.2.1 精益排程的由来....................................................................................... 28 3.2.2 精益排程的概念及分析........................................................................... 28 第 4 章 M 工厂需求预测修正和精益排程优化方案制定..........................