随着智能移动设备的普及，结合移动通信技术和互联网的移动互联网产业成 为近几年发展速度最快的产业。用户需求快速改变和提高，APP产品通过不断迭 代创新满足用户需求。针对APP产品特点分析其扩散规律和生命周期特征，提出 相应研发及运营措施，以保持产品竞争优势和增长态势，具有较高的理论意义和 应用价值。 本文在原有创新扩散模型基础上，分析其应用局限性，从定性角度分析APP 产品扩散特征，发现其扩散特征不符合原有创新扩散模型的前提假设条件，确认 了创新扩散模型改进方向。确定影响产品扩散的主要影响因素：最大市场潜量， 外部影响因素，内部影响因素，分析其在改进模型中的实际意义。描绘APP产品 扩散过程中用户演化路径，确定APP产品扩散模型构建原理。根据APP产品扩散 特征，从定量角度改进原有创新扩散模型，建立产品迭代扩散模型。利用APP产 品实际扩散数据对产品迭代扩散模型进行实证分析。最后基于产品迭代扩散模 型，结合产品生命周期理论，以四个APP产品为案例研究对象，探索APP产品扩 散过程中竞争优势演化情况及其生命周期特征。 结果表明，产品迭代扩散模型对APP产品扩散过程的拟合效果和预测效果更 好；产品迭代创新能够吸引新用户、创造新市场，增加产品最大市场潜量；APP 产品生命周期曲线随着产品不断迭代创新而波动演化；不同于传统产品生命周期 理论默认的跟随者优势，APP产品之前的竞争优势表现为：功能同质化的新发行 产品之间竞争优势表现为功能层面先占优势；分别具有产品层面先占优势和功能 层面先占优势的产品之间竞争优势表现为产品层面先占优势。 关键词：APP产品；创新扩散模型；迭代创新；产品迭代扩散模型；产品生命周 期 硕士学位论文 III Abstract With the popularity of intelligent mobile devices, mobile Internet industry combined with mobile communication technology and Internet has become the fastest growing industry in recent years. Because users’ needs are rapidly changing and improving, mobile applications meet users’ needs by continuous iterative innovation. According to the characteristics of mobile applications, the characteristics of diffusion and life cycle are analyzed, and the corresponding R&D and operation measures are put forward, in order to maintain the competitive advantage and growth situation of the product, which has high theoretical significance and application value. On the basis of the original innovation diffusion models, this paper analyzes theirs limitations in application, analyzes the diffusion characteristics of mobile applications from the perspective of qualitative analysis, finds the diffusion characteristics of mobile applications do not conform to the premise conditions of original innovation diffusion models, and confirm the improvement direction of the innovation diffusion model. This paper identified the the main factors that influence the diffusion of mobile applications, which are maximum market potential, external factors and internal factors, and their practical significance in improved model is analyzed. The user evolution path of mobile application is described, and the construction principle of the mobile application diffusion model is confirmed. According to the diffusion characteristics of mobile applications, the original innovation diffusion model is improved from the perspective of quantitative analysis, the product iterative diffusion model is established. Mobile applications’ actual diffusion data is used to make an empirical analysis of the product iterative diffusion model. Finally, based on the product iterative diffusion model, combined with the product life cycle theory, four mobile applications are taken as the case study to explore the evolution of competitive advantage and characteristics of product life cycle in the process of mobile application diffusion. The research concludes that the product iterative diffusion model has better fitting effect and prediction effect for diffusion of mobile application; product iterative innovation can attract new users, create new markets, and increase the maximum market potential of products; the life cycle curve of mobile application fluctuates with product’s iterative innovation; different from the default follower advantage of the traditional product life cycle theory, the competitive advantage of mobile applications is shown as follows: the competitive advantage between new products with same function manifests 基于改进创新扩散模型的移动应用产品生命周期特征研究 IV as first mover advantage of function level; the competitive advantage between product first mover advantage of function level and product first mover advantage of product level manifests as first mover advantage of product level. Key words: Mobile applications; Innovation diffusion model; Iterative innovation; Product iterative diffusion model; Product life cycle 硕士学位论文 V 目 录 学位论文原创性声明和学位论文版权使用授权书 .................................................... I 摘要 .................................................................................................................... II Abstract .................................................................................................................... III 插图索引 ................................................................................................................. VII 附表索引 ................................................................................................................ VIII 第1章 绪 论 ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1 研究背景 .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2研究目的及意义 ............................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 研究目的 ................................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 研究意义 ................................................................................................... 3 1.3 研究方法与内容 .............................................................................................. 4 1.3.1 研究方法 ................................................................................................... 4 1.3.2 研究内容 ................................................................................................... 5 1.4论文创新点 ....................................................................................................... 6 第2章 理论基础与文献综述 ..................................................................................... 7 2.1 移动互联网行业研究现状 ............................................................................... 7 2.2 创新扩散理论及模型研究现状 ....................................................................... 8 2.2.1 创新扩散理论 ........................................................................................... 9 2.2.2 Bass模型综述 ............................................................................................ 9 2.2.2 Norton模型综述 ...................................................................................... 12 2.2.4 模型评价指标 ......................................................................................... 14 2.3 产品生命周期理论及研究现状 ..................................................................... 14 第3章 APP产品创新扩散模型构建 ....................................................................... 17 3.1 APP产品特征分析 ......................................................................................... 17 3.1.1 APP产品的定义和主要特征分析 ............................................................ 17 3.1.2 APP产品发展特征 ................................................................................... 18 3.2 APP产品扩散特征及关键影响因素分析 ....................................................... 19 3.2.1 APP产品迭代扩散特征分析 ................................................................... 19 3.2.2 APP产品扩散关键影响因素分析 ............................................................ 20 3.3 APP产品Bass模型 ........................................................................................ 22 3.4 APP产品扩散改进模型 ......................................