中国是服装生产制造大国，一直以来也是世界服装出口大国，但是随着国际政治经 济环境的变化，中美贸易摩擦对服装出口带来了订单上的压力，服装生产企业在生产成 本方面也不断承压，加之东南亚其他国家服装产业的发展，竞争日益激烈。国内服装零 售销量呈逐年下降趋势，服装零售额虽有所增加但增速逐年放缓。中国的人均GDP不 断上升，人们的消费观念也在不断升级，越来越追求个性化、追求更环保服装面料及高 品质服装。服装生产制造企业如何满足现代消费者的个性化需求，如何在激烈的市场竞 争中突围，是服装企业必须面对的重要课题。长期以来，我国的服装企业大部分都只是 依靠代工生产OEM方式，没有品牌意识，中国现有的服装品牌知名度也不及国外品牌， 国家大力提倡中国自主品牌的建设，大批服装生产企业开始了从OEM向ODM和OBM 的转型升级之路。 本商业计划书针对地处广东省的某A针织服装厂的实际情况进行研究，其一直以来 的经营方式都停留在帮国际知名品牌代工的OEM阶段，在目前激烈的市场竞争中处于 被动的位置，利润不断下滑，发展遇到瓶颈。为改变现状、谋求出路，现决定新开设一 个D服装公司，通过针织童装的生产和销售开辟新的发展道路，从提升设计、营销能力 上来实现其从代工生产（OEM）向设计制造（ODM）和品牌制造（OBM）转型升级的 战略，并在进行差异化竞争的同时注意风险控制。本文将运用PEST，波特五力模型， SWOT分析法等模型对其所处的外部环境、面临的竞争情况，以及自身优劣势进行分析 以对症下药，制定符合D服装公司的商业模式和详细的运营、营销计划；通过对项目投 资收益进行估算，确定财务上的可行性；同时考虑投资风险，力求公司稳健经营。 关键词：商业计划书；针织童装；转型升级；差异化竞争；风险控制 II Abstract China is a major garment manufacturer and also a major garment exporter in the world. However, as the international political and economic environment changed, Chinese garment manufacturer were facing the situation of export order reduced and the production cost raised. In addition, with the development of the garment industry in other Southeast Asian countries, the competition is increasingly fierce, while the domestic clothing retail sales volume is declining year by year. Although the turnover has increased, the growth rate is slowing down in fact. China's per capita GDP is rising, people's consumption concept is also upgrading, more focused on personalization, environmentally friendly clothing fabrics and high-quality clothing. The important issue that garment enterprises must face is to meet the personalized needs of modern consumers and to break through in the fierce market competition. For a long time, most of China's clothing enterprises only rely on OEM mode, no brand awareness, and China's existing clothing brand’s reputation is not as good as foreign brands. Government strongly advocates the construction of Chinese own brands, and then a large number of garment manufacturers have begun to transform and upgrade from OEM to ODM and OBM. This business plan is written for a Guangdong knitting clothing factory. Its business is still remaining OEM model for helping international famous brands to manufacture. It is in a passive position in the current fierce market competition, with profits falling and facing development bottlenecks. In order to change the current situation and seek a better way out, it is decided to set up a new clothing company. It planned to open up a new development direction through the production and sales of knitted children's wear, and to realize its transformation and upgrading strategy from OEM to ODM and OBM based on its strengthened capability of design and marketing. D clothing company will manage risk control while conducting its differentiated competition strategy. The analyze methods which helps to analyze the external environment, the competition situation, the advantages and disadvantages in this article which including PEST, Michael Porter five forces model, SWOT and some other analyze models. It aimes to formulate the business model and detailed operation and marketing plan in line with D clothing company’s actual situation; and through the estimation of the project investment income to determine the financial feasibility, at the same time, consider the investment risk to seek for company’s steadily operation. Key words: Business Plan; Knitted children's wear; Transformation and upgrading; Differentiated competition; Risk control III 目 录 摘要 ............. I Abstract ......... II 图表目录 ...... VI 第一章 绪论 .. 1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ................ 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ...................... 1 1.1.2 本项目发起简述 .......... 7 1.1.3 研究意义 ...................... 8 1.2 文献综述 ............................ 8 1.2.1 我国服装行业的相关研究 ......................... 8 1.2.2 我国童装行业的相关研究 ....................... 10 1.2.3 市场营销组合相关研究 ........................... 11 1.2.4 商业计划书的相关研究 ........................... 13 1.3 研究内容与方法 .............. 14 1.3.1 研究内容 .................... 14 1.3.2 研究方法 .................... 14 第二章 项目的战略分析 ........... 16 2.1 项目外部环境分析 .......... 16 2.1.1 宏观环境分析（PEST）.......................... 16 2.1.2 行业环境分析（波特五力模型） ........... 25 2.1.3 童装需求分析及预测 28 2.2 项目的SWOT分析和发展战略 .................... 32 2.2.1 项目简介 .................... 32 2.2.2 项目的SWOT分析 ... 33 2.2.3 项目的发展战略 ........ 35 2.3 本章小结 .......................... 36 第三章 项目的营销策略 ........... 37 3.1 STP 营销 ........................... 37 IV 3.1.1 市场细分 (Segmenting) ........................... 37 3.1.2 目标市场选择 (Targeting) ....................... 38 3.1.3 市场定位 (Positioning) ............................ 38 3.2 营销组合策略(4P) ........... 40 3.2.1 产品策略 (Product) ... 41 3.2.2 价格策略 (Price) ....... 42 3.2.3 渠道策略 (Place) ....... 42 3.2.4 促销策略 (Promotion) ............................. 44 3.3 本章小结 .......................... 45 第四章 团队建设和运营规划 ... 46 4.1 使命与核心价值观 .......... 46 4.1.1 核心价值观 ................ 46 4.1.2 使命和愿景 ................ 46 4.2 人力资源规划 .................. 46 4.2.1 组织架构与人员需求 47 4.2.2 薪酬预测 .................... 48 4.2.3 员工培训与激励 ........ 49 4.3 运营规划 .......................... 50 4.3.1 运营模式 .................... 50 4.3.2 项目选址 .................... 50 4.3.3 项目的筹备和实施进度规划 ................... 50 4.4 本章小结 .......................... 51 第五章 营收预测与财务分析 ... 52 5.1 项目初期相关投资费用预估 ......................... 52 5.2 经营相关数据预测 .......... 53 5.2.1 收入预测 .................... 53 5.2.2 费用预测 .................... 55 5.2.3 利润预测 .................... 56 5.3 现金流预测 ...................... 57 5.4 项目的折现率计算 .......... 57 V 5.4.1 确定无风险回报率 .... 58 5.4.2 确定βi系数 ............... 58 5.4.3 确定市场风险溢价 .... 58 5.4.4 确定项目的折现率 .... 58 5.5 项目投资价值分析 .......... 58 5.5.1 投资净现值（NPV）计算 ....................... 58 5.5.2 内部报酬率（IRR）计算 ........................ 59 5.5.3 修正内部报酬率（MIRR）计算 ............. 59 5.6 本章小结 .......................... 60 第六章 风险分析与控制 ........... 61 6.1 项目的风险定性分析 ...... 61 6.1.1 政策风险及对策 ........ 61 6.1.2 市场风险及对策 ........ 61 6.1.3 财务风险及对策 ........ 62 6.1.4 管理风险及对策 ........ 62 6.1.5 技术和生产风险及对策 ........................... 63 6.2 风险定量分析（敏感性分析） ..................... 64 6.2.1 单因素敏感性分析 .... 64 6.2.2 多因素敏感性分析 .... 65 6.3 本章小结 .......................... 66 结 论 .......... 67