21世纪以来，随着大数据、AI、云计算等相关技术的应用，IT系统集成技术得到了广泛发 展和深入应用，对各行业工作效率的提升起到了重要作用。宏观原因分析表明，由于技术发展， IT系统集成项目本身的难度系数越来越高。所以，在IT系统集成项目中借助科学有效的风险 管理框架来系统性地控制项目风险，提高项目成功率已是迫在眉睫的事。 深圳机场作为“未来机场”建设的示范单位，规划了一系列IT系统集成项目。这些项目的 成败，直接关系到整个机场的战略定位。本文结合深圳机场实际情况，通过实地调查、文档查 阅、专家交流等方式，并运用PMBOK中的项目风险管理理论，对深圳机场IT系统集成项目的风 险管理进行识别和评估。 首先通过头脑风暴法等方法对项目风险作一个初步的识别，再通过召开多次风险识别会议 讨论并生成风险识别表。然后对项目风险进行定量研究，得出深圳机场IT系统集成项目面临的 四个亟需关注的风险。下一步对不同风险因素以及相关的影响可能发生的概率进行评估，确定 相关因素的最终影响值。并通过综合性评估，形成最终的风险评估报表。最后根据IT系统集成 项目的风险分析结果，进行风险管理方案设计。并对IT系统集成项目的风险管理方案进行效果 评价。 现有的风险管理理论大部分是普通IT项目的风险管理理论，针对IT系统集成项目的风险 管理理论相对较少。本文为深圳机场IT系统集成项目的全周期，设计了一整套风险管理方法。 希望通过本方案，能有效地降低项目风险发生率。 关键词：IT 项目，IT系统集成，风险管理，项目管理 深圳机场IT项目风险管理方案研究 II ABSTRACT Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the application of big data, AI and cloud computing， IT system integration has been widely developed and deeply applied, which has played a decisive role in improving the work efficiency in the industry. The macro reason analysis is that, due to technology development, IT system integration projects have become more and more complex and difficult. Therefore, it is urgent to control project risks and increase the probability of project success with the help of a scientific and effective risk management framework in IT system integration projects. As an example of the construction of "Future Airport", Shenzhen Airport has planned a series of IT system integration projects. The success of these IT system integration projects is related to the future strategic positioning of the entire airport. Based on the actual situation of Shenzhen Airport, this thesis identifies and evaluates the risk management of IT system integration projects in Shenzhen Airport by using field theories, document review, and expert exchange methods, and using related theories such as project risk management in PMBOK. The first step is to make a preliminary identification of the project risk through brainstorming and other methods, and then hold a number of risk identification meetings to discuss and generate the risk identification table. The second step is to make a quantitative study of the project risk, and get four risks that need to be paid attention to. The next step is to evaluate the probabilities of different risk factors and related effects, and determine the final influence value of the relevant factors. And through the comprehensive assessment, the final risk assessment report is formed. Finally, according to the risk analysis results of the IT system integration project, the risk management scheme is designed. Then the effect of the risk management scheme is evaluated. As most of the theories in risk management theory are about the normal IT system project, risk management for IT system integration project is rarely mentioned. This thesis has designed a set of risk management for the full cycle of the Shenzhen Airport IT system integration project. Through this solution, we hope to achieve the purpose of reducing the risk rate of the project. Keywords: IT project, IT system integration, risk management, project management 南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 III 目 录 第一章 绪论 .................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1研究背景及意义 ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1研究背景 ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2研究意义 ................................................................................................................. 1 1.2国内外研究现状 ................................................................................................................ 2 1.2.1国外研究现状 ......................................................................................................... 2 1.2.2国内研究现状 ......................................................................................................... 3 1.3研究目的与内容 ................................................................................................................ 4 1.3.1研究目的 ................................................................................................................. 4 1.3.2研究内容 ................................................................................................................. 4 1.4研究框架以及方法 ............................................................................................................ 5 1.4.1研究框架 ................................................................................................................. 5 1.4.2研究方法 ................................................................................................................. 5 1.4.3创新之处 ................................................................................................................. 6 第二章 项目风险管理理论概述 .................................................................................................... 7 2.1 项目管理相关理论 ........................................................................................................... 7 2.2 项目风险管理相关理论 ................................................................................................... 7 2.2.1规划风险管理理论 ................................................................................................. 8 2.2.2识别风险管理理论 ................................................................................................. 8 2.2.3定性风险管理理论 ................................................................................................. 9 2.2.4定量风险管理理论 ................................................................................................. 9 2.2.5风险应对理论 ....................................................................................................... 10 2.3 项目风险管理理论总结 ................................................................................................. 10 第三章 深圳机场IT系统集成项目介绍 .................................................................................... 11 3.1 深圳机场IT系统概述 ................................................................................................... 11 3.1.1深圳机场IT系统简介 ......................................................................................... 11 3.1.2深圳机场IT系统建设状况 ................................................................................. 11 3.1.3深圳机场IT系统从业人员基本情况 ................................................................. 12 深圳机场IT项目风险管理方案研究 IV 3.2 深圳机场IT系统集成项目管理现状 ........................................................................... 14 3.2.1 IT系统集成项目背景 .......................................................................................... 14 3.2.2 IT系统集成项目目标和要求 .............................................................................. 15 3.2.3 IT系统集成项目内容 .......................................................................................... 15 3.2.4 IT系统集成项目工作分解WBS ........................................................................ 15 3.2.5 IT系统集成项目的特殊性分析 .......................................................................... 1