当前我国正处于“三期叠加”的经济新常态阶段，经济增速放缓，进入经 济增长换挡期，而作为国民经济支柱产业的制造业也陷入了一个“两难之境”。 一方面是由于缺乏核心生产研发技术和资源而被长期锁定在全球价值链的低 端，而亟需向全球价值链高端环节攀升；另一方面则是受限于趋紧的资源、能 源和环境约束，亟待转型升级。面临着经济下行和环境约束所带来的双重压力， 我国制造业如何突破低端陷阱成为当前关注的重点和热点问题。已有研究表明， 技术创新是实现制造业价值链攀升的关键路径[1]，但在我国不断加大科技投入鼓 励技术创新的发展历程中，我国并未从根本上解决制造业高污染、高能耗、附 加值低的问题。如何在实现制造业高速发展的同时又能更好地保护生态环境？ 在政府出台系列措施鼓励和促进企业开展绿色技术创新的情境下，绿色技术创 新是否能显著促进制造业价值链的攀升？环境规制作为政府常用的调控手段， 在不同的环境规制工具作用下，绿色技术创新的推进将会对制造业发展带来什 么样的影响？这些问题的研究将对我国制造业的发展和推进绿色技术创新有着 重要的理论和现实意义。 本文采用线性回归分析和非线性面板门槛分析方法，探究了绿色技术创新 对制造业价值链攀升的内在作用机理。首先，在对绿色技术创新、环境规制以 及制造业价值链攀升等相关文献进行总结和回顾的基础之上，对相关概念和理 论基础进行了界定和阐述；其次，探讨了绿色技术创新对制造业价值链攀升的 影响机制，并以环境规制为门槛变量，分析了绿色技术创新对制造业价值链攀 升的作用效应；在此基础上，本文以中国30个省市区为研究对象，运用2007-2017 年的面板数据，将绿色技术创新作为解释变量，制造业价值链攀升作为被解释 变量，环境规制作为门槛变量，通过构建线性面板回归模型和非线性面板门槛 模型，实证分析了绿色技术创新对制造业价值链攀升的影响以及环境规制对两 者关系所产生的门槛效应。研究结果显示：（1）绿色技术创新对制造业价值链 攀升的影响作用存在着典型的行业异质性特征，其显著促进了技术密集型产业 价值链攀升，却不利于劳动密集型产业价值链的攀升，对资本密集型产业价值 链攀升无显著影响作用；（2）在以命令控制型环境规制、市场激励型环境规制 和公众参与型环境规制为门槛变量时，绿色技术创新与制造业价值链攀升之间 都呈现出显著的门槛特征，两者为非线性关系，绿色技术创新会因为环境规制 II 类型和强度的不同而对制造业价值链攀升产生不同的影响作用。最后，本文提 出了绿色技术创新激励政策和相关建议，为促进我国制造业价值链攀升和推进 绿色技术创新提供理论指导。 本文的研究结果对政府更有针对性、差异化地制定科学合理的绿色创新激 励措施和环境规制政策，促进制造业价值链攀升具有一定的参考意义和借鉴价 值。 关键词：绿色技术创新，价值链攀升，环境规制，门槛效应，行业异质性 III ABSTRACT At present, China is in the new normal state of "three-phase superposition". The economic growth has slowed down and entered a period of shifting economic growth. The manufacturing industry, which is a pillar industry of the national economy, is also in a "dilemma". On the one hand, it is locked in the low end of the global value chain for a long time due to the lack of core production research and development technology and resources, and it is urgent to climb to the high end of the global value chain. On the other hand, it is constrained by tighter resource, energy and environmental constraints, and it is urgent to transform and upgrade. Facing the dual pressure brought by the economic downturn and environmental constraints, how to break the low-end trap of China's manufacturing industry has become the focus and hot issue of current concern. Existing studies have shown that technological innovation is the key path to realize the climb of manufacturing value chain [1]. However, in the development process of increasing investment in science and technology and encouraging technological innovation, China has not fundamentally solved the problems of high pollution, high energy consumption and low added value of manufacturing industry. How to better protect the ecological environment while achieving the rapid development of the manufacturing industry? Under the circumstances that the government has introduced a series of measures to encourage and promote enterprises to carry out green technology innovation, can green technology innovation significantly promote the climbing of the manufacturing value chain? Environmental regulation is a commonly used regulation method by the government. Under the role of different environmental regulation tools, what impact will the promotion of green technology innovation have on the development of manufacturing? The study of these issues will have important theoretical and practical significance for the development of China's manufacturing industry and the promotion of green technological innovation. This paper uses linear regression analysis and non-linear panel threshold analysis methods to explore the internal mechanism of green technology innovation on the rise of manufacturing value chains. First, on the basis of summarizing and reviewing relevant literature on green technology innovation, environmental regulation, and Value Chain Upgrading, the related concepts and theoretical foundations were defined IV and explained. Secondly, the impact mechanism of green technology innovation on the rising value chain of manufacturing industry is discussed, and environmental regulation is used as the threshold variable, and the effect of green technology innovation on the rising value chain of manufacturing industry is analyzed. Based on this, this article takes 30 provinces and municipalities in China as research objects, uses panel data from 2007 to 2017, uses green technology innovation as explanatory variables, the manufacturing value chain climbs to be explained variables, and environmental regulations are made as threshold variables. By constructing a linear panel regression model and a non-linear panel threshold model, the empirical analysis of the impact of green technology innovation on the climbing of the manufacturing value chain and the threshold effect of environmental regulations on the relationship between the two. The research results show that: (1) The impact of green technology innovation on the rise of manufacturing value chains has typical industry heterogeneity characteristics, which significantly promotes the rise of technology-intensive industry value chains, but is not conducive to labor-intensive industry value chains. And has no significant effect on the rise of capital-intensive industry value chains. (2) When command-controlled environmental regulation, market-incentive environmental regulation, and public participation environmental regulation are the threshold variables, there are significant threshold characteristics between green technology innovation and the rise of the manufacturing value chain. Linear relationship, green technology innovation will have different impacts on the rise of the manufacturing value chain because of different types and intensity of environmental regulations. Finally, this paper proposes green technology innovation incentive policies and related suggestions, providing theoretical guidance for promoting the climbing of China's manufacturing value chain and promoting green technology innovation. The research results of this paper have certain significance and reference value for the government to make more targeted and differentiated scientific and reasonable green innovation incentives and environmental regulation policies, and to promote the climbing of the manufacturing value chain. Keywords: Green Technology Innovation, Value Chain Upgrading, Environmental Regulation, Threshold effect V 目录 摘要 ... I ABSTRACT ................... III 第1章 绪论 .................... 1 1.1研究背景和意义 . 1 1.1.1 研究背景 .. 1 1.1.2 研究目的 .. 3 1.1.3 研究意义 .. 3 1.2 国内外研究现状 4 1.2.1 制造业价值链攀升 ................. 4 1.2.2 绿色技术创新 ......................... 7 1.2.3 绿色技术创新对制造业价值链攀升的影响 ...... 10 1.2.4 绿色技术创新、环境规制与制造业价值链攀升 ............................. 11 1.2.5 研究评述 12 1.3 研究内容、方法和技术路线 ......... 13 1.3.1 研究内容 13 1.3.2 研究方法 14 1.3.3 技术路线 15 第2章 相关概念界定及理论基础 ............. 17 2.1 相关概念界定 .. 17 2.1.1 绿色技术创新 ....................... 17 2.1.2 制造业价值链攀