文本描述
科创板的设立是支持和培育具有发展潜力的科技创新型企业的一项重要金融市场 改革举措,具有重要的的战略导向和资源支持意义。科创板全新的上市规则,不再仅 仅局限于盈利、营业收入等指标,更加多元化,也更具包容性,为资本市场的进一步 发展注入了新的活力。科创板上市企业的新特性也对企业上市估值提出了新要求,传 统的绝对估值法并不能完全胜任,需要对估值方法探索补充,以更好的为投资者投资 决策提供估值参考。本文基于科创板上市企业的新特性、估值新要求,探索相对估值 指标与科技创新型不同生命周期阶段企业价值的相关关系,以期能够发现相对估值法 在科技创新型企业企业估值中的规律,为投资者估值决策提供有建设意义的参考。 本文采用实证研究的方式进行相关研究,以具有主业突出且成长性较好特征的深 圳中小企业板块市场企业的 2015 至 2019 年相关数据为研究对象,将企业所处生命周 期阶段作为分类型的调节变量引入模型,观察调节变量的不同取值情况下,自变量与 因变量之间的关系是否发生变化,以此探索在不同生命周期下,相对估值指标与企业 价值之间的相关关系。 本文采用面板数据的固定效应模型及倍分法的研究方法,以 Tobin’s Q 为被解释变 量,PR、PS、PE 等相对估值指标为主要解释变量,企业所处的生命周期划分变量为虚 拟变量。通过实证研究发现:(1)不同生命周期阶段的科创型企业,具有不一样的特 征与经营特性,适用不一样的相对估值法。(2)尽管存在生命周期的差异,但市研率 指标与企业价值指标初创期、成长期、成熟期等各个阶段都具有显著的相关关系,具 有较好的适用性。(3)市销率指标与企业价值指标在初创期、成长期、成熟期也都具 有较为显著的相关关系,可以作为估值决策的重要参考。(4)市盈率估值指标与企业 价值指标并不存在显著的相关关系,在我国资本市场中的投资估值决策适用性不强。 基于研究发现,本文建议投资者在使用相对估值法进行投资估值决策时,可以优 先考虑市研率指标及市销率指标,且不限于使用一种方法,可以同时使用多种方法, 对照比较。特别地,针对具有高研发投入的科技创新型企业而言,应重点关注市研率 指标,结合现有行业的相近类似企业,综合比较,以提升投资估值的精确性。 关键词: 企业价值评估,科创板,相对估值法,企业生命周期II The Research on relative valuation method in IPO pricing of Sci-Tech innovation board under the perspective of enterprise life cycle Abstract The Sci-Tech innovation board is an important financial market reform measure to support and cultivate scientific and technological innovation enterprises with development potential, which has important strategic guidance and resource support significance. The new listing rules of the Sci-Tech innovation board are not only limited to the conditions of profit and operating income, but also more diversified and inclusive, ana inject new vitality into development of the capital market.The new characteristics of the listed enterprises on the Sci-Tech innovation board also put forward new requirements for the valuation of enterprises. The traditional absolute valuation method is not fully competent, so it is necessary to explore and supplement the valuation method.So as to provide a better valuation reference for investors' investment decisions, this paper explores the correlation between the relative valuation index and the enterprise value in different life cycle stages to discover the law of relative valuation method in the enterprise valuation, and provide constructive reference for investors' invesment decision. In this paper, empirical research method is used to conduct relevant research, and the data from 2015 to 2019 of Shenzhen SME plate market enterprises with prominent main business and good growth characteristics are taken as the research object, and the life cycle stage of an enterprise is introduced into the model as a type of moderating variable.The relationship between independent variable and dependent variable is observed under different values of adjustment variable, so as to explore the correlation between relative valuation index and enterprise value under different life cycle. This paper bases on the panel data and uses the method of DID.Tobin's Q, that difines as an agent variable of enterprise value, is used as the dependent variable, and the P/R ratio, P/S ratio and P/E ratio are the main independent variables. The start-up period, growth period and maturity period are virtual variables. Through the empirical study, weIII find that: (1) enterprises in different life cycle stages have different characteristics, and different relative valuation methods are applicable. (2) Although there are differences in life cycle, the evidences shows that the P/R ratio and enterprise value are correlated in the all stages,such as the start-up stage, the growth stage and the mature stage. (3) the evidences also shows that the P/S ratio and enterprise value are correlated in each stage, which can be used as an important reference for valuation decision-making. (4) There is no significant correlation between P/E ratio and enterprise value, and the applicability of investment valuation decision in China's capital market is not well. Based on the research findings, this paper suggests that investors should pay attention to the P/R ratio and the P/S ratio when making investment decision by using relative valuation method, and not limited to using one method,.You can use multiple methods at the same time. In particular, for high-technological enterprises with high R & D input, we should focus on the P/R ratio, and make a comprehensive comparison with similar enterprises in existing industries to improve the accuracy of valuation. Key words: Enterprise Valuation;Sci-Tech Innovation Board; Relative Valuation Method;Enterprise Life CycleIV 目 录 中文摘要 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Ⅰ Abstract ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Ⅱ 第一章 绪论........................................................1 1.1 研究的背景与意义 ............................................................................................ 1 1.2 研究内容、基本思路 ........................................................................................ 3 1.3 研究方法 ............................................................................................................ 5 1.4 本文的创新之处与不足 .................................................................................... 5 第二章 文献综述.....................................................7 2.1 企业生命周期相关研究回顾 ............................................................................ 7 2.2 企业价值评估相关研究回顾 ............................................................................ 7 2.3 文献评述 ............................................................................................................ 9 第三章 理论分析与假设..............................................10 3.1 企业生命周期阶段划分理论 .......................................................................... 11 3.2 不同生命周期阶段下的相对估值法运用与研究假设 .................................. 11 3.2.1 初创期企业相对估值法运用与研究假设 ........................................... 12 3.2.2 成长期企业相对估值法运用与研究假设 ........................................... 13 3.3.3 成熟期企业相对估值法运用与研究假设 ........................................... 13 3.3.4 衰退期企业相对估值法运用 ............................................................... 13 第四章 研究设计....................................................15 4.1 变量选取及解释 .............................................................................................. 15 4.1.1 被解释变量 ........................................................................................... 15 4.1.2 解释变量 ............................................................................................... 15 4.1.3 控制变量 ............................................................................................... 16 4.1.4 变量内生性问题及其处理 .................................................................. 17 4.2 样本数据来源与筛选 ....................................................................................