I 摘要 本研究在探索解决DH公司营销风险可行方案时，首先通过文献回顾构建出DH 寿险公司营销渠道风险管理的基本框架，并基于文献分析法和德尔菲法对DH寿险公 司营销渠道风险因素进行了全面识别；其次确定关键风险控制点，主要采用FAHP法 和三角模糊数法来评价DH寿险公司营销渠道风险因素权重值、风险因素等级；最后 结合风险管理优先度因子，对公司营销渠道风险应对方式提出建议，并给出具体策略。 研究结果显示，首先，在DH寿险公司营销渠道风险因素识别方面，在公司现有 的五大营销渠道：代理人渠道、电销渠道、银保渠道、经代渠道和网销渠道中，共识 别出32项可能的风险因素。其次，在DH寿险公司营销渠道风险因素权重和等级评 价方面，代理人渠道权重和风险等级最高，按照风险等级和控制点划分标准，属于较 高风险水平和重要控制点，电销渠道和网销渠道风险属于中等风险水平和一般控制 点，说明代理人渠道是DH公司最重要、且最易发生风险的营销渠道，带来严重损失 的可能性最高。最后，在DH寿险公司营销渠道风险应对方面，根据COSO和《人身 保险公司全面风险管理实施指引》界定，将DH寿险公司营销渠道风险应对方式归纳 为四种：规避、转移、降低和接受。由于风险等级和风险管理优先度因子不同，32 种风险因素的应对方式极其组合方式具有较大差异，由此应采取差异化应对策略。 关键词：人寿保险 营销渠道 风险管理 模糊层次分析法 Abstract II Abstract When exploring the feasible solutions to DH Company's marketing risk, this study first constructs the basic framework of marketing channel risk management of DH life insurance company through literature review. Then, based on literature analysis and Delphi method, the risk factors of DH company's marketing channel are identified comprehensively. The next step is to determine the key risk control points. FAHP method and triangular fuzzy number method are mainly used to evaluate the weight value and risk factor grade of DH life insurance company's marketing channel risk factors. Finally, combined with risk management priority factor, the paper puts forward suggestions on the risk response of marketing channels and gives specific strategies. The results show that, firstly, in the aspect of risk factor identification of DH Life Insurance Company's marketing channels, 32 possible risk factors have been identified in the company's existing five major marketing channels: agent channel, electric marketing channel, bank insurance channel, agency channel and online marketing channel. Secondly, in terms of risk factor weight and level evaluation of DH life insurance company's marketing channel, the agent channel has the highest weight and risk level. According to the risk level and control point classification standard, they belong to higher risk level and important control point, and the risk of e-marketing channel and online marketing channel belongs to medium risk level and general control point, which shows that agent channel is the most important and risk-prone marketing channel for DH company, and the possibility of serious losses is the highest. Finally, in the aspect of DH life insurance company's marketing channel risk response, according to COSO and " Implementation Guidelines for Comprehensive Risk Management of Life Insurance Companies", DH life insurance company's marketing channel risk response methods are summarized into four types: avoidance, transfer, reduction and acceptance. Due to the different risk levels and risk management priority factors, the coping styles and combination styles of the 32 risk factors are quite different. Therefore, differentiated coping strategies should be adopted. Key words: Life insurance; marketing channels; risk management; fuzzy analytic hierarchy process 目录 III 目录 摘要 ...................................................................................................................................... I Abstract ..................................................................................................................................II 1 绪论 ................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ............................................................................................................. 2 1.2 研究框架和内容 ........................................................................................................ 3 1.2.1 研究框架 ............................................................................................................. 3 1.2.2 研究内容 ............................................................................................................. 3 1.3研究方法 ..................................................................................................................... 4 1.4主要创新点 ................................................................................................................. 4 2 文献综述与风险管理框架 ............................................................................................... 6 2.1 文献综述 .................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 寿险营销渠道风险因素识别 ............................................................................. 6 2.1.2 寿险营销渠道风险评价 ..................................................................................... 7 2.1.3 寿险营销渠道风险应对 ..................................................................................... 8 2.2 文献评价 .................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 寿险营销渠道风险管理框架 .................................................................................... 9 3 DH公司寿险营销渠道风险识别 ................................................................................... 11 3.1 风险识别方法 .......................................................................................................... 11 3.2 风险识别过程 .......................................................................................................... 11 3.2.1 风险因素汇总 ................................................................................................... 11 3.2.2 风险因素选择 ................................................................................................... 13 3.3 本章小结 .................................................................................................................. 14 4 DH公司寿险营销渠道风险评价 ................................................................................... 15 4.1 风险评价指标体系与指标说明 .............................................................................. 15 4.1.1 风险评价指标体系 ........................................................................................... 15 4.1.2 风险评价指标解释 ........................................................................................... 16 4.2 风险评价标准与方法 .............................................................................................. 23 4.2.1 风险评价标准 ................................................................................................... 23 4.2.2 风险评价方法 ................................................................................................... 23 4.3 风险评价过程 .......................................................................................................... 26 目录 IV 4.3.1 FAHP法确定指标权重 ..................................................................................... 26 4.3.2 三角模糊数法评价风险等级 ........................................................................... 29 4.4 风险评价结果分析 .................................................................................................. 35 4.4.1 风险因素权重评价结果分析 ...............................................................