伴随国内制造业的规模扩张，迅速发展，出口产品规模逐渐增大，而且国内的经济 市场也向外不断拓展，制造业规模位居世界前列。尤其是在我国加入世贸组织之后，对 外贸易持续推动着国内制造业的发展，但是，市场的扩张虽然给国内市场带来了很多的 受益，但也会伴随着更多的风险，出口企业面对着更加恶劣的风险环境。需要提高风险 管理水平，目的是用最小的投入得到更多的风险保障，能够在竞争激烈的国内市场当中 存活下来，而风险管理在诸多企业当中已经成为核心内容。 本文选择CS耐火材料公司作为案例进行研究，分析本公司国际贸易业务现状，对 公司贸易风险进行识别和预测，研究相应的管理对策。论文首先对研究背景及其意义、 国内外相关研究成果进行了归纳总结，并在此基础上对于与风险管理，国际贸易理论的 相关概念进行了介绍。之后，基于公司多年来的国际贸易实践，对公司内部蕴含着的国 际贸易风险因素完成识别工作。接着对各个风险因素的影响权重进行了评价测算，获得 了各个风险因素的影响权重。最后，建立了公司国际贸易风险管理的解决方案与实施对 策。 通过本文的研究可以看出，CS耐火材料公司国际贸易风险可归纳为：合同风险、信 用证风险、外汇风险和国家风险四个方面。其中，公司遇到的最重要的国际贸易风险是 合同风险，其次是信用证风险。为此，本文分别从合同风险、信用证风险、外汇风险和 国家风险等四个方面提出了相应的应对措施。同时，为了保证应对措施的有效实施，还 提出了优化组织结构并建立风险管理小组、建立建全公司风险管理决策方式和流程、加 强贸易业务的规范经营控制、建立贸易风险信息预警系统、重视公司贸易管理人才的培 养等五个方面的保障措施。 本文以CS耐火材料公司为例，对本公司当前面临的国际贸易风险进行了分析，在 帮助公司有效应对自身的贸易交易风险，实现健康可持续发展的同时，以此希望对同类 相关行业的企业起到一定的参考和借鉴作用。 关键词：国际贸易，风险管理，风险评价，风险对策 III Abstract Withthescaleexpansionandrapiddevelopmentofthedomesticmanufacturingindustry, thescaleofexportproductsisgraduallyincreasing,andthedomesticeconomicmarketisalso expandingoutward,withthemanufacturingscalerankingthetopintheworld.Especially afterChina'saccessiontotheWTO,foreigntradecontinuestopromotethedevelopmentof domesticmanufacturingindustry.However,althoughtheexpansionofthemarketbringsalot ofbenefitstothedomesticmarket,italsobringsmorerisks.Exportenterprisesarefacedwith aworseriskenvironment.Thelevelofriskmanagementneedstobeimprovedinorderto obtainmoreriskprotectionwiththeminimuminputandsurviveinthefiercelycompetitive domesticmarket.Riskmanagementhasbecomethecorecontentinmanyenterprises. Inthispaper,CSrefractorycompanywasselectedasacasestudytoanalyzethecurrent situationofthecompany'sinternationaltradebusiness,identifyandpredictthecompany's traderisks,andstudythecorrespondingmanagementcountermeasures.Atfirst,thispaper summarizestheresearchbackground,significanceandrelevantresearchachievementsat homeandabroad,andonthisbasis,introducestheconceptsrelatedtoriskmanagementand internationaltradetheory.Then,basedonthecompany'sinternationaltradepracticeformany years,theidentificationofinternationaltraderiskfactorscontainedinthecompanywas completed.Thentheinfluenceweightofeachriskfactorisevaluatedandcalculated,andthe influenceweightofeachriskfactorisobtained.Finally,thesolutionsandcountermeasuresof internationaltraderiskmanagementareestablished. Throughtheresearchofthispaper,itcanbeseenthattheinternationaltraderiskofCS refractorycompanycanbesummarizedintofouraspects:contractrisk,letterofcreditrisk, foreignexchangeriskandcountryrisk.Amongthem,themostimportantinternationaltrade riskencounteredbythecompanyisthecontractrisk,followedbytheletterofcreditrisk. Therefore,thispaperputsforwardcorrespondingcountermeasuresfromfouraspects:contract risk,letterofcreditrisk,foreignexchangeriskandcountryrisk.Atthesametime,inorderto ensuretheeffectiveimplementationofthemeasures,andputsforwardtheoptimizationof organizationalstructureandestablishtheriskmanagementteam,setuptobuildthecompany riskmanagementdecisionmakingmethodsandprocesses,strengthenthestandard IV managementoftradebusinesscontrol,establishingtraderiskearlywarninginformation system,attentiontothecultivationoftrademanagementtalentsinfiveaspectssuchas securitymeasures. TakingCSrefractorycompanyasanexample,thispaperanalyzesthecurrent internationaltraderisksfacedbythecompany.Whilehelpingthecompanytoeffectivelydeal withitsowntraderisksandachievehealthyandsustainabledevelopment,thispaperhopesto playacertainroleofreferenceforenterprisesinsimilarrelatedindustries. Keywords:InternationalTrade，RiskManagement，RiskAssessment,RiskStrategy V 目录 第一章绪论..................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景及意义..............................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景..................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究目的..................................................................................................1 1.1.3研究意义..................................................................................................2 1.2国内外相关研究现状......................................................................................3 1.2.1国外相关研究..........................................................................................3 1.2.2国内相关研究..........................................................................................5 1.2.3国内外相关研究评述..............................................................................6 1.2.4国际贸易风险管理发展趋势..................................................................7 1.3研究内容、方法及技术路线..........................................................................8 1.3.1研究内容..................................................................................................8 1.3.2研究方法..................................................................................................9 1.3.3技术路线..................................................................................................9 第二章国际贸易风险管理相关概念及理论概述....................................................11 2.1相关概念界定.................................................................................................11 2.1.1风险及风险管理的概念.........................................................................11 2.1.2国际贸易风险及风险管理的概念.........................................................11 2.2国际贸易风险管理相关理论.........................................................................12 2.2.1国际贸易理论.........................................................................................12 2.2.2风险管理理论.........................................................................................13 2.3国际贸易风险管理的流程............................................................................14 2.3.1风险识别................................................................................................14 2.3.2风险评价................................................................................................15 2.3.3风险控制................................................................................................16 2.3.4风险监测................................................................................................16 2.4本章小结........................................................................................................17 第三章CS耐火材料公司国际贸易业务发展及风险识别......................................18 VI 3.1CS耐火材料公司简介...................................................................................18 3.1.1公司简介.................................................................................................18 3.1.2组织结构.................................................................................................18 3.1.3.CS耐火材料公司国际贸易业务发展...................................................19 3.2CS耐火材料公司国际贸易风险识别...........................................................20 3.2.1国家风险................................................................................