近几年，担保行业发展迅猛，担保行业的覆盖规模逐渐扩大，在我国经济 体系所占的地位不断提高。担保行业是一个专业性很强、风险性很高的行业 ， 其生存和发展的核心问题是有效地防范和化解担保风险，这就必须采取严格的 措施，识别、防范、控制和分散风险，将可能形成的损失控制的可承受的范围 内。担保机构获得 快速发展的同时，也面临着较大的业务风险，风险控制成为 担保机构需要面临的首要问题。 随着哈企信担保中心快速发展的背后，哈企信担保中心的风险控制过程中 暴露出许多 问题，对中心的进一步发展产生了负面的影响和威胁。本文运用文 献分析和层次分析法等分析方法，以哈企信担保中心作为研究对象，首先以对 哈企信担保中心的业务类型与经 营环境的分析为依据，对哈企信担保中心的担 保业务风险进行识别，提出其担保风险来自担保对象风险、宏观风险和内部风 险。 在风险识别的基础上，对风险进行评估为哈企信 担保中心建立有效的评估 方法从而得出哈企信担保中心风险评估的结果。剖析哈企信担保中心风险评估 的情况，针对不同的担保风险设定不同的风险防范措施，同时为保障哈企 信担 保中心风险进一步降低，本文为哈企信担保中心从建立风险控制组织、提高员 工风险防范的意识和能力、应用现代风险防范技术、强化客户关系等四方面组 成了哈企信担保 中心的风险控制保障措施。 关键词 担保机构；风险识别；风险评估；风险控制 哈尔滨理工大学工商管理硕士学位论文 -II- Research on the Risk Management of the Guarantee business of the Credit Guarantee Center of Harbin Enterprises Abstract In recent years, the guarantee industry has developed rapidly, the coverage scale of the guarantee industry has been expanded gradually, and its position in China's economic system has been continuously improved. With the rapid development of guarantee institutions, they are also faced with greater business risks. Risk control has become the primary problem that guarantee institutions need to face. Assurance is a very professional and high risk industry, the core issue of the survival and development is to effectively guard against and dissolve the risk guarantee, it must take strict measures to identify, prevent, control and risk diversification, would be likely to form the loss of control range of affordable, this thesis focuses on companies believe that assure the center is the cause of the risk and the necessity of strengthening risk management, and puts forward risk point in the daily business operations, targeted put forward concrete means of risk control. On the basis of risk identification, the risk assessment is conducted to establish an effective assessment method for the center of credit guarantee so as to obtain the result of the center's risk assessment. Analyze the enterprise guarantee letter center risk assessment of the situation, according to different risk guarantee set different risk prevention measures, at the same time to ensure the enterprise letter assure the center further reduce the risk, in this paper, for the enterprise guarantee letter center from establishing risk control organization, improve the risk prevention consciousness and the ability of employees, the application of modern risk prevention technology, strengthen customer relations and so on four aspects of the ha company letter assure the center of risk control measures. Keywords Guarantee agencies, Risk identification, The risk assessment, Risk control 哈尔滨理工大学工商管理硕士学位论文 -I- 目 录 摘要 ............................................................................................................................... I Abstract ........................................................................................................................ II 第1章 绪论 ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 研究背景及目的和意义 ................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景 .................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究目的和意义 ........................................................................................ 2 1.2 国内外研究现状 ............................................................................................... 3 1.2.1国外研究现状 ............................................................................................. 3 1.2.2国内研究现状 ............................................................................................. 4 1.3研究内容与方法 ................................................................................................ 8 1.3.1研究内容 ..................................................................................................... 8 1.3.2研究方法与技术路线 ................................................................................. 9 第2章 哈企信担保中心担保业务风险识别 .......................................................... 11 2.1 哈企信担保中心的发展 ................................................................................. 11 2.1.1 哈企信担保中心概况 .............................................................................. 11 2.1.2 哈企信担保中心行业地位 ...................................................................... 13 2.1.3 哈企信担保中心经营环境 ...................................................................... 13 2.1.4 哈企信担保中心的业务类型 .................................................................. 13 2.2 哈企信担保中心来自担保对象的风险识别 ................................................. 14 2.2.1 基于德尔菲法的来自担保对象风险识别 .............................................. 14 2.2.2 担保对 象的经营者素质与竞争力风险 .................................................. 14 2.2.3 担保对象的行业风险与技术风险 .......................................................... 15 2.2.4 担保对象的财务风险 .............................................................................. 15 2.2.5 担保对象的道德风险 .............................................................................. 16 2.3 哈企信担保中心担保业务宏观风险识别 ..................................................... 16 2.3.1 基于头脑风暴法的宏观风险识别 .......................................................... 16 2.3.2 政府过度干预与政策变化风险 .............................................................. 16 2.3.3 法律体系不健全风险 .............................................................................. 17 2.4 哈企信担保中心来自内部风险识别 ............................................................. 17 2.4.1 哈企信内部风险的因果图识别 .............................................................. 17 哈尔滨理工大学工商管理硕士学位论文 -II- 2.4.2 资本风险 .................................................................................................. 18 2.4.3 决策风险与业务操作风险 ...................................................................... 19 2.4.4 内部控制风险 .......................................................................................... 19 2.4.5 员工道德风险 .......................................................................................... 21 2.5 本章小结 ......................................................................................................... 21 第3章 哈企信担保中心担保业务风险评估 .......................................................... 22 3.1 哈企信担保中心担保业务风险评估步骤 ..................................................... 22 3.1.1 评价方法选择 .......................................................................................... 22 3.1.2 评价指标确定 .......................................................................................... 24 3.2 哈企信担保中心担保业务风险评估指标分析 ............................................. 24 3.2.1 哈企信担保中心来自担保对象风险评估指标分析 .............................. 24 3.2.2 哈企信担保中心担保 业务宏观风险评估指标分析 .............................. 26 3.2.3 哈企信担保中心内部风险评估指标分析 .....................................