海洋运输是国际进出口贸易中最主要的运输方式，与国际进出口贸易有着密切的 关系。随着改革开放和加入WTO，我国的国际进出口贸易量突飞猛进， 国际货运代 理也因此得到了蓬勃的发展。但近年来，全球政治经济不确定性加剧，经济增速放缓, 我国进出口贸易量有下降趋势，大型航运、新兴线上货代、上市快递企业等加入 货代 大军，给本就竞争激烈的货代行业带来了更大的冲击和挑战。 本文以J公司海运业务为研究对象，J公司是一家中小型国际货运代理企业，自从 2016年以来海运业务量和润率 逐逐年下滑，随着外部环境威胁加大，下降趋势进一步 加大。如何改善现状制定适合的发展战略应对越发激烈的竞争和外部不确定性，是本 文的研究的课题。本文首先运用企业 内部数据、PEST、五力模型对J公司的内外部环 境做分析，然后在企业内部访谈的基础上，运用问卷调查和AHP层次分析法确定影响 J公司海运发展的内部优劣势及外部机会与威胁 关键因素和其权重。接着运用IFE、 EFE内外因素评估矩阵对影响J公司的优势劣势机会威胁的关键因素进行了量化评估， 最后根据SWOT、QSPM矩阵找出适合J公司海运总体战略方 案和业务竞争战略方案。 本文的研究对J公司海运业务未来发展提出了针对性的建议，同时也对类似的中 小型国际货代企业有着一定的参考意义。 关键词： AHP; IFE-EFE; SWOT; QSPM; 发展战略; 国际货运代理III Abstract Comparing with Air, road, train transportation, Ocean transportation is one of the most fundamental ways of the transportation for International trading. With the reform and open policy in China, the volume of Import and export have been growing significantly, which make International freight forwarding industry get great progress as well. However, we are now in the VUCA world, the speed of the world economic is going down. We have to face lots of difficulties and challenges than ever before. In this paper, we take the J International freight forwarding company as research object. J company is a small-middle size forwarding company, since 2016, the cargo volume and profit rate going down every year Furthermore, the trend of decreasing will be continued due to the threat from outside world. It’s crucial to improve the cargo strategy of J company overcome the threats from the highly competitive market and VUCA world. Due to above, firstly the current study analyzes its internal environments according to company’s data and external environment according PEST model and Porter five-force model to make a briefly picture of the company’s current status. Secondly, this study makes several interviews from the management of middle-high level in J company then design a questionnaire based on above information and related theory to identify the key elements of company’s strength & weakness, threaten & opportunity. Then based on the data collects from questionnaire, I will use AHP analysis to make sure the weight of each key element of J company. Thirdly, according to the previous outcome, I will construct IFE Matrix and EFE Matrix to calculate the internal and external situation of J company. Then, I use SWOT Matrix and QSPM Matrix to select the most appropriate and attractive strategy from the potential development strategies and competitive strategies respectively. Finally, I will explain how to implement the strategies and support activities by improve ability and resource of J company. This research will give a comprehensive development guide to the J company, meanwhile hope it also could provide reference ideas on strategy for the company which similar to J company. Keywords: AHP; IFE-EFE; SWOT; QSPM; Development Strategy; Freight forwarding 目录 致谢........................................................................................................................................ I 摘要.......................................................................................................................................II Abstract ................................................................................................................................III 第 1 章 绪 论..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背 景.....................................................................................................................1 1.2 问题提 出.....................................................................................................................2 1.3 研究方法与思 路.........................................................................................................2 1.3.1 研究方 法...............................................................................................................2 1.3.2 基本思 路...............................................................................................................3 第 2 章 相关理论基 础..........................................................................................................5 2.1 战略相关理论及国内外研究现状概 述.....................................................................5 2.2 国际货运代理基本介 绍.............................................................................................6 2.2.1 国际货运代理的概 念..........................................................................................6 2.2.2 国际货运代理的经营范 围..................................................................................6 2.2.3 国际货运代理中的海洋运输的特 点..................................................................6 第 3 章 J 公司海运内外部环境分 析...................................................................................8 3.1 J 公司海运内部环境分析 ...........................................................................................8 3.1.1 J 公司海运概况简介 ............................................................................................8 3.1.2 J 公司海运经营情况简介 ....................................................................................9 3.1.3 人力资源分 析....................................................................................................12 3.1.4 财务资源分 析....................................................................................................14 3.1.5 配套设施分 析....................................................................................................15 3.2 宏观外部环境分 析...................................................................................................15 3.2.1 政治因 素............................................................................................................15 3.2.2 经济因 素............................................................................................................17 3.2.3 地理因 素............................................................................................................18 3.2.4 科技因 素............................................................................................................20 3.3 J 公司海运外部行业环境分析 .................................................................................20 3.3.1 供应商议价的能 力............................................................................................21 3.3.2 买方议价的能 力................................................................................................21 3.3.3 潜在的新进入者的威 胁....................................................................................21 3.3.4 替代产品或服务的威 胁....................................................................................22 3.3.5 同行业内现有企业之间的竞 争........................................................................23 第 4 章 J 公司海运发展战略制定与选 择.........................................................................24 4.1 J 公司海运战略目标 .................................................................................................24 4.2 战略制定思 路...........................................................................................................25 4.3 J 公司内部访谈 .................