能源是一个国家发展经济的基础，能源短缺也是制约一国经济发展的重要因 素。21世纪，我国的能源结构和产业结构都面临着新的调整和突破。旧的能源产 业结构正被以使用新型的、清洁能源为主的新型产业逐步替代。 生物质能源作为一种清洁、高效、便宜的能源正越来越受到人们的青睐。充 分利用丰富的生物质资源，加快生物质能源工程项目的发展是急需研究的课题。 本文在深入调查NM公司目前经营现状的基础上，结合我国能源产业发展的宏观 背景，研究了在多变的内外部环境下NM公司生物质能源工程项目可行性研究的 重要课题。主要的研究内容如下， （1）通过对当前国家能源问题的回顾和生物质能源的介绍，对 NM 公司利 用木质纤维植物制备燃料乙醇项目的背景分析，以及内外部环境分析，笔者认为 发展生物质能源能有效缓解我国能源供应紧张的问题，市场前景广阔。 （2）根据 NM 公司具体情况，详细对 NM 公司利用木质纤维植物制备燃料 乙醇项目进行可行性分析。包括经济性分析、市场分析、技术性分析、不确定性 分析、社会效益分析和风险分析。最终得出结论，实施 NM 公司利用木质纤维植 物制备燃料乙醇项目完全可行。最后，对我国生物质能源的发展提出几点建议。 关键词， 生物质能源，燃料乙醇，项目经济评价，不确定性分析ABSTRACT Energy plays a foundational role in national economic development，and the shortage of energy restricts the development of a country's economy. In the 21st century， Chinese energy structure and industrial structure were confronted with new adjustments and breakthroughs. Old industrial structure of energy has being substituted gradually by an new energy industry，using new and clean energy mainly. Biomass energy as a clean， efficient and cheap energy is attracting more and more people of all ages.It’s an urgent need of study to make full use of abundant natural gas resources in NM company，and to speed up the development of the Biomass Energy Project in NM Company. In this paper，depending on depth investigation in NM company combined with the macro background of Chinese energy industry，the important issue was studied，that was the fessibility analysis and empirical study on biomass energy project in a changing external and internal environment.The main content is as follows， (1) First of all， the background of energy crisis ， the biomass energy and fuel ethanol production from lignin plant in NM company were introduced .It is included that biomass energy can improve the problem of energy crisis，and that market foreground is expansive. (2) The feasibility analysis of fuel ethanol production from lignin plant in NM company.Include， economic analysis，risk analysis，market analysis，environmental analysis， uncertainty analysis and technical analysis.Ultimately concluded that the implementation of fuel ethanol production from lignin plant in NM company is entirely feasible. Finally， in accordance with the conclusions of feasibility analysis， some proposals for the implementation of Biomass Energy were proposed. KEY WORDS，Biomass Energy，Fuel Ethanol， Project Economical Appraisal， Uncertainty Analysis目 录 第一章 绪论..................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景 ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 能源危机 ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1.2 政策导向 ................................................................................................................ 4 1.1.3 项目概况及必要性................................................................................................. 5 1.2 燃料乙醇发展现状 ........................................................................................................... 6 1.2.1 国外燃料乙醇发展现状......................................................................................... 6 1.2.2 国内燃料乙醇发展现状......................................................................................... 9 1.2.3 木质纤维原料生产乙醇研究进展....................................................................... 10 1.2.4 对于燃料乙醇发展现状的思考........................................................................... 11 1.3 本文的研究目的与思路 ................................................................................................. 12 1.3.1 研究目的 .............................................................................................................. 12 1.3.2 研究内容与思路 .................................................................................................. 13 第二章 可行性研究的理论基础................................................................................15 2.1 可行性研究的内涵及作用.............................................................................................. 15 2.1.1 可行性研究的内涵............................................................................................... 15 2.1.2 可行性研究的作用............................................................................................... 15 2.2 可行性研究的内容及步骤和依据.................................................................................. 16 2.2.1 可行性研究的主要内容........................................................................................ 16 2.2.2 可行性研究的步骤和依据.................................................................................... 18 第三章 NM 公司木质纤维植物制备燃料乙醇项目设计方案................................20 3.1 项目法人基本情况 ......................................................................................................... 20 3.1.1 企业基本情况 ...................................................................................................... 20 3.1.2 企业主营业务 ...................................................................................................... 21 3.1.3 企业财务状况 ...................................................................................................... 21 3.1.4 主要股东 .............................................................................................................. 21 3.1.5 组织机构与人力资源配置................................................................................... 22 3.2 项目设计方案 ................................................................................................................. 23 3.2.1 项目建设内容及产能规模................................................................................... 23 3.2.2 项目实施计划 ...................................................................................................... 253.2.3 厂址选择 .............................................................................................................. 26 3.2.4 产品的市场分析 .................................................................................................. 26 第四章 NM 公司木质纤维植物制备燃料乙醇项目财务分析................................29 4.1 项目投资情况 ................................................................................................................. 29 4.2 成本费用估算 ................................................................................................................. 31 4.3 销售收入和应纳税种及税率.......................................................................................... 32 4.4 贷款偿还能力分析 ......................................................................................................... 32 4.5 财务盈利能力分析 ......................................................................................................... 33 4.6 项目不确定性分析 ......................................................................................................... 34 4.7 小结 ................................................................................................................................. 38 第五章 NM 公司木质纤维植物制备燃料乙醇项目技术分析................................40 5.1 成果来源及知识产权情况..................................................................................