摘要 我国是以煤为主要能源的国家,“缺油、少气、富煤”是我国的基本国情。目前， 随着中国经济的高速发展,对石油的需求越来越大,对进口的依赖程度日益加深。 国际石油市场中的不稳定因素、主要产油地区政治局势动荡等因素都将对中国石 油和能源的供给产生巨大的影响。因此，从能源安全角度考虑，基于中国煤资源 丰富的特征,开发以煤为原料的石油替代燃料，是中国当前较为现实的战略选择。 本文运用可行性研究的相关理论对 X 公司 200 万吨/年煤制油项目进行可行 性研究为项目的投资决策提供参考依据。通过对 X 公司 200 万吨/年煤制油项目 的产品市场分析和预测，表明该项目柴油产品未来在新疆本地及我国西南地区市 场潜力较大，且因具有低硫、高十六烷值、低密度的特性，所以可部分满足市场 对高品质柴油的需求；未来我国石脑油产品市场需求缺口较大，因此本项目石脑 油产品未来市场空间较大，且因本项目石脑油产品具有直链烷烃含量高，几乎不 含硫、氮、芳烃，金属含量极低的特点，产品质量优于石化企业同类产品，具有 较强的市场竞争力；我国未来 LPG（液化石油气）市场需求缺口较大，本项目 LPG 产品产量相对较小，因此本项目 LPG 产品目标市场为项目所在地周边城镇，且因 本项目 LPG 具有高丙烯含量的特点，也可作为炼化企业的优质原料；通过对该项 目进行技术可行性分析，可以看出该项目资源条件可以满足项目需求，工艺技术 方案较为成熟，各项节能节水、劳动安全、环境保护技术方案可以满足项目要求； 通过对该项目进行经济可行性分析，表明该项目各项财务评价指标较为合理，达 到了行业一般经验的要求，通过对该项目进行风险分析，结果表明该项目虽然存 在一些风险因素，但只要合理应对，项目在实际运营中可能面临的风险不大。 X 公司的 200 万吨/年煤制油项目可以增强企业的市场竞争能力，解决企业 未来的发展问题，调整产品结构，开拓能源化工领域产品，而且对于调整和优化 我国能源结构、缓解国内石油短缺的矛盾、保障我国的经济安全有重要的现实作 用。 关键词：可行性研究；煤制油；市场分析；风险分析Abstract Abstract Our country is based on coal as its main source of energy, lack of oil, less gas, rich in coal is the basic national conditions of our country. At present,With the rapid economic development of China, the demand for oil is increasing,the degree of dependence on imports is growing. The unstable factors in the international oil market and the political instability of the main oil-producing region will give a significant impact on the China's oil and energy supply. Therefore, in terms of energy security, based on the characteristics of China is rich in coal resources, to develop oil alternative fuels with coal as raw materials is China's current realistic strategic choice. This paper applies the relevant theories of feasibility study on feasibility analysis of the X company’s 2mt/a coal-to-liquids project to provide a reference basis for project investment decision. Based on the product market analysis and forecast of X company’s 2mt/a coal-to-liquids project, that the project diesel products in xinjiang local and southwest China in the future market potential is large, and because of its low sulfur, high cetane number, low density feature,so it can meet the demand for high-quality diesel parts market; Future demand for naphtha in China is bigger,so the market space of the project’s naphtha product in the future is larger, and because of this project’s naphtha product has high content of alkanes, almost do not contain sulfur, nitrogen, aromatic hydrocarbons, the characteristics of the metal content is extremely low, and the quality of the products is better than that of the petrochemical enterprises of similar products, with strong market competitiveness; The market demand of LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) in our country is larger in the future, the yield of LPG products of the project is relatively small, so the target market of the LPG products of this project is the surrounding towns, and the LPG products of this project with high propylene content, but also can be used as high-quality raw materials for petrochemical enterprises; Through the study of the technical feasibility of the project analysis, it can be seen that the project resource conditions can meet the demand of project, technology scheme is relatively mature, the energy saving water saving, labor safety, environmental protection technology solutions can meet the project requirements;By analyzing the economic feasibility of the project, it shows that the project financial evaluation indicators is relatively reasonable, has reached the requirement of general experience, by analyzing the risk of the project. The results show that there is some risk factors, but as long as a reasonable response, the project in the actual operation may face little risk.Abstract The 2mt/a coal-to-liquids project of X company can enhance the enterprise market competition ability, solve the problem of enterprise's development in the future,adjust product structure, expand the chemical industry products, and is an important practical role to adjust and optimize our country ‘s energy structure ,relieve the contradictions of the shortage of domestic oil, safeguard the economic security of our country. Keywords: feasibility study, coal-to-liquids, market analysis, risk analysis目录 目录 第 1 章 绪论.........................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景.................................................................................................1 1.2 研究目的与研究意义.............................................................................1 1.3 研究内容及研究方法.............................................................................2 1.3.1 研究内容......................................................................................2 1.3.2 研究方法......................................................................................2 第 2 章 相关理论基础..........................................................................................4 2.1 市场分析及预测理论.............................................................................4 2.2 财务评价理论.........................................................................................4 2.3 不确定性分析理论.................................................................................6 第 3 章 项目产品市场分析..................................................................................7 3.1 原油供需分析及预测...........................................................................7 3.1.1 世界原油供需现状及预测........................................................7 3.1.2 国内原油供需现状及预测........................................................9 3.2 柴油供需分析及预测.........................................................................10 3.2.1 世界柴油供需现状及预测......................................................10 3.2.2 国内柴油供需现状及预测......................................................11 3.2.3 本项目柴油产品市场分析......................................................12 3.3 石脑油供需分析及预测.....................................................................15 3.3.1 世界石脑油供需现状及预测..................................................15 3.3.2 国内石脑油供需现状及预测..................................................15 3.3.3 本项目石脑油产品市场分析..................................................16 3.4 LPG（液化石油气）供需分析及预测.............................................17 3.4.1 世界 LPG 供需现状及预测....................................................17 3.4.2 国内 LPG 供需现状及预测....................................................18 3.4.3 本项目 LPG 产品市场分析....................................................19 3.5 产品价格分析及预测.........................................................................20目录 3.5.1 原油价格分析..........................................................................20 3.5.2 柴油价格分析..........................................................................20 3.5.3 石脑油价格分析......................................................................22 3.5.4 LPG（液化石油气）价格分析..............................................24 第 4 章 项目技术可行性分析.................................