可行性研究对于项目管理中的投资决策具有重要影响。伴随着我国高速公路 迅猛发展，如何提高可行性研究工作的质量，高效、科学的进行可行性研究工作， 对于现阶段高速公路的发展和建设有重要意义和作用。 现阶段我国对于高速公路可行性研究理论和影响因素分析缺乏系统性的研 究，基于此，本文深入分析和研究可行性研究的方法与技术理论，并对国内外研 究成果进行综合分析，从可行性研究的影响因素、基础理论以及质量评价体系进 行研究，并利用有关理论对江津经习水至古蔺高速高速公路进行实例分析。 本文首先通过文献阅读研究，对国内外公路工程可行性研究的现状进行探讨 对比，挖掘出了我国现阶段关于公路可行性研究问题，并结合我国实际情况提出 了相应的解决办法。 然后从可行性研究数据的调查和分析方面，全面针对性的对可行性研究技术 进行阐述研究，并详细研究了交通量预测一般技术；同时，采用科学化方法和理 论，提出了公路项目可行性研究质量评价体系及评价方法，以保证高速公路项目 建设可行性研究过程的科学化、公正化，从而避免项目决策的盲目性，以促进可 行性研究质量的快速增长。 最后报告在可行性研究的理论以及本文研究成果的基础上，着重对江津经习 水至古蔺高速项目的交通以及经济进行了详细评价，得出的结论为项目的决策提 供了正确的科学的依据，这反映了本次可行性研究的成果可以指导指导江津经习 水至古蔺高速项目的建设实施。本报告研究成果对其它公路项目建设可行性研究 也具有借鉴价值。 关键词：高速公路项目，建设，可行性研究II ABSTRACT Feasibility study has important influence on investment decision in project management. Along with the rapid development of Expressway in China， how to improve the quality of the feasibility study of the efficient and scientific feasibility study work plays an important role in the development and construction stage of highway. At the present stage in our country for the factors of highway feasibility research theory and effect analysis of the lack of research， based on this system， and the methods in this paper deeply analysis and Research on the theory of the feasibility study， and the research results at home and abroad were analyzed， the influencing factors， the basic theory and the quality evaluation system of feasibility study from the shadow was studied， and the use of the relevant theory of Jiangjin by Gulin to Xishui highway is analyzed. Firstly， through analyzing the present situation of domestic and international highway engineering feasibility study analysis， introduces the research status of domestic and foreign highway engineering feasibility， and find out where the problems at the stage of feasibility study of Highway Engineering in china. Then we study on project feasibility research method and related theory， the feasibility study for the influence factors are analyzed， at the same time， in order to improve the quality of highway engineering feasibility study fundamentally enhanced decision making of highway project in China， scientific and standardized， it constructs the evaluation system and evaluation method of highway project feasibility study quality. In order to conduct a comprehensive ， systematic and objective evaluation on the quality of highway project feasibility study， decision-making to prevent blindness and one sidedness， promote the quality of higher engineering feasibility study. Finally， the feasibility study theory and program and based on the research achievements of this paper， combining with the characteristics of highway project on the Jiangjin Xishui expressway project in Gulin traffic and economy in detail， and some corresponding conclusions provide a scientific basis for the project decision-making， said the relevant theoretical results and clear the feasibility study ofIII highway construction， is an important basis for the guidance of Jiangjin the Xishui Gulin expressway construction project implementation， also has the reference value to the construction of other highway project feasibility study. KEY WORDS: feasibility study；highway construction;IV 目 录 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景 ........................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究目的及意义 ............................................................................................... 1 1.2.1 研究目的 ................................................................................................ 1 1.2.2 研究意义 ................................................................................................ 2 1.3 国内外研究现状 ............................................................................................... 3 1.4 公路工程可行性研究工作存在的问题 ........................................................... 5 1.5 主要研究内容 ................................................................................................... 6 第二章 高速公路建设项目可行性研究相关理论概述............................8 2.1 项目可行性研究基本方法 ............................................................................... 8 2.1.1 净现值法 ................................................................................................ 8 2.1.2 内部收益率法 ........................................................................................ 9 2.2 工程经济学相关理论研究 ............................................................................... 9 2.2.1 边际经济学与经济可行性研究分析的关系 ........................................ 9 2.2.2 资金的时间价值理论 .......................................................................... 10 2.2.3 帕累托改进理论 .................................................................................. 10 2.2.4 经济评价相关理论 .............................................................................. 10 2.3 现代交通需求预测理论 ..................................................................................11 2.4 小结 ..................................................................................................................11 第三章 高速公路工程可行性技术研究 ..................................................12 3.1 工程可行性研究数据的调查与分析 ............................................................. 12 3.1.1 社会经济数据的调查与分析 .............................................................. 12 3.1.2 交通量数据的调查与分析 .................................................................. 13 3.2 高速公路工程可行性研究技术 ..................................................................... 14 3.2.1 交通量预测一般技术 .......................................................................... 14 3.2.2 技术方案研究 ...................................................................................... 25 3.2.3 经济研究 .............................................................................................. 25 3.3 小结 ................................................................................................................. 25 第四章 高速公路工程可行性研究工作质量评价体系研究..................26 4.1 综合评价指标体系的构建原则 ..................................................................... 26 4.2 高速公路建设项目可行性研究质量评价体系的构建 ................................. 26V 4.2.1 评价方法 .............................................................................................. 26 4.2.2 质量评价体系 ...................................................................................... 27 4.3 小结 .................................................................................................................. 31 第五章 江习古高速公路项目可行性研究 ..............................................32 5.1 项目概况 ......................................................................................................... 32 5.2 交通量分析及预测 ......................................................................................... 33 5.2.1 公路交通调查与分析 .......................................................................... 33 5.2.2 调查数据整理及基年 OD 矩阵的生成 .............................................. 36 5.2.3 交通量预测结果及分析 ..