ZL 公司是南沙国家新区四大区属国企之一，是广州市农业重点企业，土地资源丰 富，且土地物业大部分位于南沙明珠湾核心湾区范围。公司选址南沙新区珠江街八涌半 灵新公路以东地块，策划建设珠三角农产品（冷链）物流配送交易中心项目，立足于建 成珠三角乃至华南地区规模较大、设施最先进、管理水平和效率最高的农产品冷链物流 配送交易中心。它以农产品标准化生产示范和加工储运为依托，紧紧围绕无公害农产品 标准化生产和绿色食品为主题，通过生产质量管理的标准化，以及对检验检疫系统的不 断改善，来大大提升现代化生产经营水平和农副产品附加值，有效的促进农业产业化和 农产品物流业的发展，本文对该项目建设进行策划。 本文分为七个模块，首先介绍项目概况和项目建设的必要性。在第二模块，分析“冷 链”物流的环节，及其减少食品损耗、保障食品安全的作用，并详细研究了农产品冷链 物流行业在我国的发展现状及未来趋势，分析冷链发展的经济背景和目标市场现状。从 分析看出，我国农产品冷链物流发展从宏观来看充满机会，市场前景广阔。本文通过对 外资知名竞争对手分析及地区分布分析、冷库规模分析、业务构成分析认为，本项目的 冷库发展充满着挑战与机遇，相比竞争对手具有综合竞争优势。在第三模块，介绍项目 建设方案及其配套；在第四模块，论述三种可行的项目发展模式和四种经营模式，以及 项目组织结构和人力资源配置。最后两个模块分别介绍了项目财务预算与财务收益能力 分析、项目风险分析及规避对策。 本项目总资金投入通过自有资本金和投资方投入两方筹措。以寻找投资者方式获得 融资，项目第 2 年即开始获得盈利，以利润分配使投资双方获利。本文列示了该项目财 务明细表，从项目的静态投资回收期、动态投资回收期、净现值、内部收益率来看，显 示本项目效益良好，投资方案具有可行性。本项目单因素敏感性分析的经济效益指标我 们选择净现值，得出本项目三个最为敏感的因素为，流通加工服务收入、配送服务收入、 土地租恁费。项目有其特有的经营管理风险、市场风险、政策风险、技术人才风险、安 全风险、环境污染风险及融资风险，项目策划对各类风险提出了相应的规避和控制策略。 整体来说，项目风险在可接受和控制的范围之内。 关键词，珠三角农产品；冷链物流；项目策划II Abstract The pear river commercial joint corporation is one of the big four territorial state-owned enterprises in Nansha National New District. Most land property located in the core area of Nansha Pearl Bay and abundant in land resources makes it also a key agricultural enterprise in Guangzhou. Site selected in the east lot of Ba Yong Ban Ling New Highway, Zhujiang Street, Nansha New District, the company planned to build up a project of Logistics Distribution Trading Center of Agricultural Products (Cold Chain) In Pearl River Delta, in order to form a trading center that is with larger scale, most advanced facilities and the highest management level and efficiency. It bases on agricultural product standardization production demonstration and processing storage and transportation, closely around the pollution-free agricultural products standardization production and green food as the theme. through standardized production quality management and the improvement of the inspection and quarantine system, it raises the level of modernization of agricultural and sideline products production and operation ,as well as the added value of the agricultural products. Also it effectively promotes the development of agricultural industrialization and agricultural products logistics industry, this paper discusses the construction of the project. This paper is divided into seven modules. The paper first states the overview and the necessity of the project building. In the second module, we analyze the “cold chain” logistics step, and introduce its effect of reducing food loss as well as ensuring food safety. Through detailed study of present situation, development trend and target market of the “cold chain” logistics industry, we absolutely find a bright market prospect in a macroscopic view. Besides, after the study steps of famous foreign competitor analysis, region distribution analysis, refrigerator scale analysis, and business structure analysis, it is obvious that the development of the project is full of challenge and opportunity, moreover, with stronger comprehensive advantages. Furthermore in the third module, we introduce the project construction scheme and its assortments. In the forth module, we introduce three feasible development model and four practical operation model. And then establishe organization and human resource configuration of the Project. The last two modules respectively introduces the financial budget and Financial profitability analysis, the risk and circumvent countermeasures, . The total investment of the whole project is raised by self capital and external investment funds separately. Profit would be realized in the second year and profit distribution will benefit both sides. we list detailed financial subsidiary ledger of the project——the static payback period, the dynamic investment payback period , the accumulate NPV , and the IRR.III According to the nice project benefit, the investment scheme is with great feasible.The single factor sensitivity analysis of the project we choose the net present value.Finally we obtain that the best sensitive factors of the project are circulation processing services, distribution services revenue and land rent fee. Although the project has its unique management risk, technical personnel risk, security risk, environmental risk, policy risk and financing risk, we do settle the mitigate and control strategy separately. As a result, the project risk is within the range of acceptability and controllability as a whole. Key Words，Agricultural Products In Pearl River Delta; Cold Chain Logistics; Project PlanningIV 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I Abstract ......................................................................................................................................II 图表清单..................................................................................................................................VI 第一章 项目概要......................................................................................................................1 1.1 公司基本情况 .................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 项目概况 .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 项目建设必要性 .............................................................................................................. 4 1.4 文献综述 .......................................................................................................................... 5 1.4.1 国外研究现状............................................................................................................ 5 1.4.2 国内研究现状............................................................................................................ 6 1.5 本章小结 .......................................................................................................................... 9 第二章 冷链物流行业及产品市场分析................................................................................10 2.1 行业情况分析 ................................................................................................................ 10 2.1.1“冷链”物流........................................................................................................... 10 2.1.2“冷链”物流行业的发展现状及趋势................................................................... 11 2.1.3“冷链”物流行业发展的启示............................................................................... 18 2.2 目标市场分析 ................................................................................................................ 19 2.2.1“冷链”发展的经济基础....................................................................................... 19 2.2.2 项目目标市场.......................................................................................................... 20 2.2.3 珠三角市场冷库