随着国际贸易形势的复杂多变，部分国别、重点市场出现风险异动，引发出 口企业对当前国际贸易风险态势及风险隐患的极大关注和忧虑之情。然而，企业 自身缺乏专业的风控人才和信息渠道。因此如何做好出口信用风险评估是出口企 业最关心的问题。 论文从出口企业的角度出发，采用雷达图模型作为评估模型。结合企业投保 出口信用保险后可获取的资源信息，建立风险指标。运用风险管理、财务管理、 战略管理等相关理论，制定评分标准。通过评分得出的雷达图，对出口信用风险 进行评价分析。并以Z公司的案例来检验风险评估方法的可操作性和实际效果。 论文提出基于雷达图模型的风险评估方法。建立5个一级指标21个二级指标、 若干三、四级指标和评分标准，对具体贸易合同的出口信用风险进行风险评估。 本文的研究结论，可以为出口企业自我评估出口信用风险提供可行的方法，对企 业做好自身的风险管理也有一定的启示，有助于企业更好地在出运前防范风险、 在出运后的跟踪风险。 关键词，出口信用风险，出口信用保险，雷达图，风险指标 论文类型，应用/专题研究浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 出口信用保险视角下企业出口信用风险评估 II ENTERPRISE’S EXPORT CREDIT RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER THE PERSPECTIVE OF EXPORT CREDIT INSURANCE ABSTRACT With the complicated and ever-changing international trade situation, risk changes have occurred in some countries and major markets, which has caused exporters to pay great attention and worries about the current international trade risk situation and potential risks. However, the company itself lacks professional risk control talents and information channels. Therefore, how to assess export credit risk is the most important issue for export enterprises. From the perspective of export enterprises, the paper adopts the radar chart model as the evaluation model. The paper combines the resource information that can be obtained after the enterprise insured export credit insurance to establish risk indicators, and uses relevant theories such as risk management, financial management and strategic management to sort out standards, and uses the radar graph model to analyze and visually evaluate the risk. And through the case of Z company to test the operability and actual effect of the risk assessment method. The paper proposes a risk assessment method based on radar chart model. The paper establishes five first-level risk indicators and twenty-tone second-level indicators, a number of third- and fourth-level indicators, and evaluation criteria to evaluate the credit risk of specific trade contracts. The conclusions of this paper can provide a feasible method for export enterprises to self-assess export credit risk, and also have certain enlightenment for enterprises to do their own risk management, which helps enterprises to better prevent risks before shipment and tracking risk after shipment. KEY WORDS: Export Credit Risk; Export Credit Insurance; The Radar Graph Model; Risk Indicator TYPE OF DISSERTATION / THESIS: Application Research浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 出口信用保险视角下企业出口信用风险评估 III 目 录 1 绪论 .................................................. 1 1.1 论文研究背景................................................. 1 1.1.1 企业的信用风险日益扩大................................... 1 1.1.2 出口信用风险及保险日趋发展............................... 1 1.2 论文研究目的和意义........................................... 2 1.2.1 企业的内生需求........................................... 2 1.2.2 保险公司的价值体现....................................... 2 1.3 主要研究内容和论文章节安排................................... 3 1.4 论文的创新之处............................................... 3 1.5 研究方法..................................................... 4 2 国内外研究文献综述及研究评价........................... 5 2.1 出口信用风险类别............................................. 5 2.2 出口信用保险................................................. 6 2.3 企业风险管理和风险评估....................................... 7 2.4 对相关文献的评述............................................. 8 2.4.1 出口信用风险............................................. 8 2.4.2 出口信用保险............................................. 8 2.4.3 风险管理和风险评估....................................... 9 3 出口信用风险评估模型构建.............................. 11 3.1 评估模型.................................................... 11 3.2 评估指标的选取来源.......................................... 12 3.3 评估指标的释义和评分标准.................................... 19 3.3.1 买方风险指标............................................ 20 3.3.2 结算方式风险指标........................................ 22 3.3.3 国家风险指标............................................ 23 3.3.4 自控风险指标............................................ 23 3.3.5 行业风险指标............................................ 24 4 评估方法 ............................................. 25 5 案例实证 ............................................. 27 5.1 单个贸易合同的风险评估...................................... 29 5.2 纵向分析.................................................... 35 5.2.1 F 买方 2018 年 4 月某贸易合同风险评估..................... 35浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 出口信用保险视角下企业出口信用风险评估 IV 5.2.2 F 买方 2016 年 4 月某贸易合同风险评估..................... 38 5.2.3 F 买方 2016 年 2 月某贸易合同风险评估..................... 40 5.2.4 F 买方 2014 年 4 月某贸易合同风险评估..................... 42 5.2.5 F 买方 2011 年 8 月某贸易合同风险评估..................... 45 5.2.6 F 买方风险趋势分析...................................... 47 5.3 横向分析.................................................... 49 5.3.1 L 买方某贸易合同风险评估................................ 49 5.3.2 F 买方某贸易合同风险评估................................ 51 5.3.3 A 买方某贸易合同风险评估................................ 51 5.3.4 C 买方某贸易合同风险评估................................ 53 5.3.5 多个贸易合同风险比较分析 ............................... 55 6 研究结论和研究讨论.................................... 57 6.1 风险评估方法的评价和调整.................................... 57 6.2 企业风险管理的总结和建议.................................... 58