汇编出版,采用影印、缩印或者其它方式合理复制学位报告。 本学位报告属于: ( )1.经厦门大学保密委员会审查核定的保密学位报告, 于 年月日解密,解密后适用上述授权。 (y) 2.不保密,适用上述授权。 (请在以上相应括号内打“ V ”或填上相应内容。保密学位报告 应是已经厦门大学保密委员会审定过的学位报告,未经厦门大学保密 委员会审定的学位报告均为公开学位报告。此声明栏不填写的,默认 为公开学位报告,均适用上述授权。) 声明人(签名):| 2014年$月0曰 摘要 摘要 2014年春节前后,北京、上海、天津、河北、西安等地发生了大面积长时 间的雾霾天气,环境污染矛盾突出。因此,改变以前粗放式的经济发展方式、加 强生态环境保护、推动能源生产和消费方式变革已成为关系人民生活、建设生态 文明刻不容缓的重要任务。国务院总理李克强同志在2014年3月5円十二届全 丨5人大二次会议上作的《政府工作报告》中,要求推进节能减排和污染防治,能 源消耗强度下降3.7%,非化石能源发电量比重达到22.3%,鼓励发展风能、太 阳能发电。本文通过对榆林市比亚迪300MW光伏电站项F1进行nJ行性分析,为 该光伏电站的建设提供了重要依据,具有重要的理论和1:程指导意义。 本文分为七章。第一章是研究概述,阐明了研究光伏发屯行业的背景,提出 了研究榆林市比亚迪光伏电站项H的问题及其意义,构建了研究的框架;第二章 是投资项目的市场分析,重点分析了中H和榆林地区电力市场的供给和需求,以 及中国光伏电站的发展历程和现状;第二章是太阳能资源分析和发电量计算;第 四章是投资项目的预算和报表编制,主要从投资总额、融资成本、财务报表等方 而对投资项目做了预算;第五章是投资项丨:彳的效益评价,、R要使用投资利润率和 利税率、保本点和保利点、投资回收期、净现值和内涵报酬率等财务指标对投资 项目进行效益评价,分析项目可行性;第六章是投资项I〗的风险评价,通过保本 和保利程度、单因素和多因素敏感性分析以及矩阵式风险分析,对投资项目风险 进行量化分析;第七章是结论和建议,提出本文的主要结论,并从可持续发展的 角度给出项目建成后的风险控制及持续经营管理建议⑴。 国务院《能源发展“十二五”规划》要求到2015年,我UI#化石能源消费 比重提高到11.4%,煤炭消费比平要从2011年的8 ] .56%降低到65%左右,鼓励 建设大型光伏发电站。此外,陕两省电力消费量同比增长309.91%,电力消费增 长巨大。因此,在国内特别是在陕西省发展光伏发电行业介着广泛的市场发展前 景。木项目总装机容量为300MW,建成后可实现销售收入992628.21万元,利 润总额562759.8万元,平均每年实现126.87MW容量满负荷发电即可盈亏平衡。 本项目投资利润率为8.54%,动态投资回收期(所得税后)为9.24年,全部投资 财务净现值(所得税后)为221971.75万元,全部投资内涵报酬率(所得税后) 为13.66%,投资效益评价可行。为保证本项目有较好的经济效益,在项目生产 偷林市比#.迪光伏i[i站财务nj行件研究 经营过程中要采取应对措施避免投资额、发电量和上网电价同时减少(下调)的 情况出现,以提高项目抗风险能力,保证项目可行性。本项目生产经营过程中要 严格控制光伏组件的质量和成本,枳极丌拓国外光伏新兴市场,大胆探索光伏互 联网金融产品,为促进比亚迪光伏产业可持续发展提供理论和工程经验。 关键词:比亚迪;光伏屯站;财务可行性研究 Abstract Abstract During the Spring Festival in 2014, there have a contradiction of environmental pollution because of the large long fog and haze come into being in Beijing,Shanghai, Tianjin. Hebei and Xi'an. Changing the former extensive mode of economic development, strengthening ecological environmental protection, promoting the change in energy production and consumption mode become the important task of people's good living environment and strengthening ecological improvement. At the Second Session of the Twelfth National People's Congress on March 5,2014,Premier Li Keqiang in Report IN THE WORK OF THE GOVERNMENT said we should try hard to conserve energy, reduce emissions and prevent and control pollution, encourage the development of wind and solar power. Energy intensity was cut by 3.7%, and electricity generated from non-fossil energy amounted to 22.3%. The paper provides the important theoretical and engineering significance for the construction of the photovoltaic power station based on the investment feasibility analysis of BYD 300MW photovoltaic power station in Yulin. The paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter introduces the background of the photovoltaic power industry and shows the significance of PV power station in Yulin and research framework. Then the second chapter gives the market analysis on supply and demand of electricity power in China and Yulin, with presenting the development course and status quo of PV power stations in China. After that, the third chapter provides the survey of solar energy resources and ri 11 oti ori Tor <11\ frM irt In ^1tln<^ Vvur^o^t 1 V- WA 裊 iAnmvy VI > A A X. J Jl Jl A X ^ x N- . i ^ W VV-t L. and financial statement preparation mainly focusing on total investment, financing costs and financial statement. The fifth chapter sets out the benefit assessment, principally on return on investment- profit and tax investment ratio, break-even point and profit-guarantying point, payback period, net present value and internal rate of return. The sixth chapter introduces the risk evaluation throughout the degree of break-even and profit-guarantying, the sensitivity analysis of single factor, multifactor and risk matrix. Finally, the seventh chapter provides the conclusions and continuous operation and management recommendations from the point of sustainable development of the PV power station In the energy development under “Twelve-Five” program, the State Council demands non-fossil energy consumption should increase to 11 40/n nnd coal ill Financial Feasibility Study of Photovoltaic Power Station in Yulin BYD consumption should reduce from 81.56% to 65%, encouraging the construction of large photovoltaic power stations. Therefore, it has a broad market prospect on the development of photovoltaic industry with the tremendous growth in electricity consumption in Shanxi. The project is expected to achieve sales of $ 9.9 billion and total profit of $ 5.6 billion. It will break even only 126.87MW capacity power generation at full capacity. The investment evaluation is feasible because the return on investment is 8.54%, dynamic payback period (after tax) is 9.24,total financial net present value is 2.2 billion, and internal rate of return is 13.66%. To ensure economic benefits and improve the risk resistance capacity, project response measures should be taken to avoid the reduction of the investment, generating capacity and on-grid prices at the same time. In the course of operation, the investor should explore foreign markets and solar internet financial products while control the quality and cost of PV module strictly. Only in this way, the project can provide theories and engineering experience for the sustainable development of BYD's PV industry. Keywords: BYD; PV power station; Financial feasibility study IV 目录 第一章研究概述 1 第一节研究背景 1 第二节投资项目概况 2 第三节本文研究的主要问题及其意义 3 第四节本文的研究框架及其说明 4 第二章投资项目的市场分析 6 第一节中国电力市场的供给和需求分析 6 第二节榆林地区电力需求和发展前景分析 8 第三节中国光伏电站的发展历程和现状分析 10 第三章太阳能资源分析和发电量计算 14 第一节全国太阳能资源概况 14 第二节区域太阳能资源概况 15 第三节太阳能资源分析 16 第四节年上网电量预测 18 第四章投资项目的预算和报表编制 22 给—共in这已飾石宵 00 I— J 入 第二节融资成本预算 24 第三节利润表预算 25 第四节资产负债表预算 30 第五节现金流量表预算 33 第六节还贷计划表预算 44 第五章投资项目的效益评价 47 第一节投资利润率和投资利税率 47 第二节保本点和保利点 48 偷枓市比#迪光伏屯站W务nj tj'll f')Vri 第三节投资回收期 50 第四节净现值和内涵报酬率 51 第五节其他财务评价 52 第六章投资项目的风险评价 55 第一节保本程度和保利程度 55 第二节敏感性分析——单因素和多因素 56 第三节矩阵式风险分析 60 第四节投资风险的综合分析和评价 62 第七章结论和建议 63 第一节主要结论 63 第二节项目建成后的风险点及防范措施 64 第三节管理建议 66