电力行业是基础支持产业，它的发展水平直接关系到相关产业的好坏，它是社会和 谐与经济健康发展的重要保证，而输变电项目可行性研究和建设是电力行业生产规模扩 大的重要体现，在社会经济发展和保障居民生活方面具有重要的作用。 B 市位于广东西翼，是整个广东省西部的电网负荷中心。随着钢铁基地、中科炼油 化工等大项目的投产，用电将会迅猛增长。B 市目前正面临供电不足，用电紧张的趋势， HD 项目的建设能够有效地缓解 B 市电网的供电压力，电网负荷压力巨大、供电源不足 的问题，并保证居民生活用电、促进当地经济快速发展。项目投资决策前必须要对项目 进行可行性研究，在项目技术是可行的前提条件下，还要对项目进行财务可行性研究， 本文针对 B 市的投资环境对 HD 项目投资估算、财务融资、财务收益进行了分析研究， 通过敏感性分析评估了风险对项目建设的影响，并针对性地提出了防范对策。 本文首先对 HD 项目建设的区域环境和项目建设概况进行分析，确定了项目的建设 规模、建设时间、项目选址的合理性。其次，在确定了项目的投资估算后，通过与限额 指标进行对比，进行了项目投资的合理性分析，同时还从融资的角度，分析了项目的筹 资比例，确定了项目筹资的方式和计划筹资年限；然后以《输变电工程经济评价导则》 作为财务评价依据，通过对预测得出的财务数据进行计算和分析，编制项目的现金流量 表，采用净现值和内部收益率作为盈利能力的决策指标，计算得出项目净现值为 11708.53 万元，项目的内部收益率为 9.95%，项目的投资回收期为 10.38 年；同时通过资产负债 率、利息备付率、偿债备付率的动态指标对投资单位的偿债能力进行评价，得出投资企 业在借款期内也能还清债务，所以项目具备财务可行性。 由于 HD 项目处于可行性研究阶段，大部分数据都是通过以往工程经验估算得出， 评价结果与实际可能出现偏差。因此，还需要对 HD 项目进行不确定性分析，本文首先 对项目进行了单因素敏感性分析，选用净现值和内部收益率两个动态决策指标，确定 HD 项目的敏感性因素，然后通过对数据的分析确定敏感性因素的变化幅度，通过多因素敏 感性分析识别项目的风险因素，并提出应对风险的措施。 关键词，可行性研究；财务评价；敏感性分析。II Abstract Power industry is the foundation to support industry, and its level of development is directly related to the quality of related industries, it is the social harmony and an important guarantee for the healthy development of the economy, while the power transmission project feasibility study and construction of the power industry, the importance of expanding the scale of production manifested in the socio-economic development and the protection of living has an important role. The B City West is located in Guangdong, western Guangdong Province, the whole grid load center. With steel base, in the Division of large projects such as oil refining and chemical production, consumption will be increased rapidly. B City is currently facing power shortage, power shortage trend, HD project construction can effectively alleviate the pressure of B city power grid, grid load is enormous pressure for the power shortage problem, and to ensure that residential electricity consumption, promote local economic rapid development. Before the investment decision must conduct a feasibility study on the project, the project technically feasible preconditions, but also a financial feasibility study of the project, how to determine whether the project is financially feasible to determine on what basis is this need solve the problem. This article first HD project construction and project construction area of environmental profiles were analyzed to determine the scale of construction projects , the construction period , the project site is reasonable. Secondly , in determining the project investment estimate , through comparison with limit indicators for the rationality of the project investment analysis , but also from a financing perspective , analyzing the project's funding ratio to determine the manner of financing the project and plans for financing life ; then transmission project economic evaluation guidelines as a basis for financial evaluation , prediction obtained by calculation and analysis of financial data , preparation of project cash flow statement , using the net present value and internal rate of return as profitability the decision index , calculated net present value of 11708.53 yuan, the project's internal rate of return of 9.95% , the project's payback period is 10.38 years ; simultaneously through asset -liability ratio , interest coverageIII ratio , debt service coverage ratio dynamic indicators to evaluate the solvency of investment units , the project has drawn HD profitability, the expected period of the borrowings invested enterprises can pay off the debt , so the project financially unviable . Because of HD projects at the feasibility study stage, most of the data are estimated from the experience of previous projects, the evaluation results and the actual possible bias. Therefore, you also need the HD project uncertainty analysis, this paper first project was carried out on single factor sensitivity analysis, the choice of NPV and IRR two dynamic decision indicators to determine the sensitivity factor HD project, and then through the data analysis to determine the sensitivity factors change floating through multivariate sensitivity analysis for identifying risk factors for the project, and raised the question of risk prevention recommendations. Keywords，Feasibility study; Financial evaluation; Sensitivity analysis.IV 目 录 摘要 ..... I ABSTRACT II 第一章 绪论1 1.1 研究背景和意义 .. 1 1.1.1 研究背景 .... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 .... 2 1.2 文献综述 .. 3 1.2.1 项目可行性研究的阶段及内容 .... 3 1.2.2 项目可行性研究重要性和作用的研究 .... 4 1.2.3 输变电项目财务可行性研究 5 1.2.4 财务评价的目的和主要内容 6 1.4 研究方法和内容 .. 7 1.4.1 研究方法 .... 7 1.4.2 研究内容 .... 7 第二章 投资环境分析与项目建设..9 2.1 项目建设地区状况 9 2.1.1 地区用电现状 9 2.1.2 地区用电发展规模 .. 9 2.2 项目建设概况 ... 11 2.2.1 建设背景 ... 11 2.2.2 项目选址 ... 12 2.2.3 建设规模 ... 12 2.2.4 建设时间 ... 13 2.3 本章小结 . 13 第三章 项目投资与融资...14V 3.1 项目投资估算与合理性 . 14 3.1.1 投资估算方法 ..... 14 3.1.2 估算编制依据 ..... 14 3.1.3 投资估算 ... 15 3.1.4 投资比较 ... 16 3.2 项目融资 . 22 3.2.1 融资比例 ... 22 3.2.2 融资金额及使用计划 ..... 22 3.3 项目融资方式 ... 23 3.3.1 融资方式对比 ..... 23 3.3.2 融资贷款年限 ..... 23 3.3.3 融资可行性分析 ... 23 3.4 本章小结 . 24 第四章 项目财务评价与企业偿债能力分析..25 4.1 财务评价依据 ... 25 4.2 成本预测 . 26 4.2.1 折旧费及摊销 ..... 26 4.2.2 财务费用 ... 27 4.2.3 经营成本 ... 28 4.2.4 销售税金及附加 ... 27 4.3 收入预测 . 28 4.3.1 网售电量 ... 29 4.3.2 增量电价 ... 29 4.4 现金流量预测 ... 30 4.5 盈利能力分析 ... 36 4.6 筹资方偿债能力分析 ... 39 4.7 本章小结 . 41 第五章 项目的不确定性分析.42VI 5.1 敏感性分析的步骤 ..... 42 5.1.1 敏感性分析的作用 . 42 5.1.2 敏感性分析的基本步骤 ... 43 5.2 敏感性指标与不确定因素的选择 ..... 43 5.2.1 确定分析指标 ..... 43 5.2.2 选择需要分析的不确定因素 ..... 43 5.3 单因素敏感性分析 ..... 44 5.3.1 敏感性系数 . 44 5.3.2 净现值决策指标 ... 44 5.3.3 内部收益率决策指标 ..... 45 5.4 多因素敏感性分析 ..... 45 5.4.1 敏感性因素变化范围预测 . 45 5.4.2 财务评价指标的变化范围 . 47 5.5 敏感性因素风险应对措施 ..... 48 5.5.1 项目投资方面 ..... 48 5.5.2 经营成本方面 ..... 49 5.6 本章小结 . 50 结论.....51