I 摘要 随着我国经济的快速发展，越来越多的社会矛盾和问题突显出来，并不断 恶化，社会风险不断积累。腐败、就业、工程质量、食品安全等影响社会稳定 问题不断涌现，极大的影响了整个社会的稳定。其主要原存在于整个事件的社 会稳定评价不足，忽略了事件起初的整体社会稳定风险评价，影响事件的顺利 实施和可持续性的发挥。 公路工程项目可行性研究阶段社会稳定风险分析内容从项目背景、工程方 案、路线走向、建设规模、交通量预测、、沿线环境等方面进行，其中涉及的 社会稳定风险因素很多，能有效的识别项目整体面临的风险，准确提出具有针 对性、有效性、可行性及全面性的风险对策，规避并减少项目风险的发生，为 整个项目健康、稳定和可持续性的发展起到关键性的作用。 报告阐述了公路项目可行性研究阶段的社会稳定分析工作的整体思路、内 容、步骤和方法，运用层次分析法确定风险指标，初步研究并建立了公路项目 可行性研究阶段的社会稳定风险评价指标体系。文章以内蒙古自治区省道 201 线哈达图至海拉尔段一级公路工程可行性研究阶段的社会稳定风险分析项目 为研究对象，结合项目的实际，以该评价指标体系为基础，论证了社会风险分 析的全过程。该指标体系充分考虑项目的合法性、合理性、可行性及可控性的 有机结合，用定性和定量分析相结合的方法确定源头及存在的主要问题，从而 有针对性的提出风险对策，规避并降低风险因素的影响。为项目的相关责任主 体提供了努力的方向，保证了项目的顺利实施和运行。 关键词：公路项目；风险；社会稳定；层次分析法北京工业大学工程硕士专业学位报告 II Abstract With the rapid development of our economy, more and more highlighted social contradictions and problems, and worsening social risk accumulation. Corruption, employment, construction quality, food safety, affect social stability problems emerge, great impact on the stability of the society as a whole. The main original exists in the whole event of insufficient social stability evaluation, ignoring the event overall social stability risk assessment at first, influencing the full play of the smooth implementation and sustainability of the event. The highway project feasibility study stage of social stability risk analysiscontent from the project background, project plan, route, the scale of construction, traffic volume forecast, the environment, and other aspects ofsocial stability risk factors, which involved a lot of risk, can effectively identify the whole project faces, accurate to propose targeted,effectiveness, feasibility and the comprehensive measures of risk, avoidand reduce risk, a key role for the development of the entire project healthy, stable and sustainable play. This paper expounds the social stable stage of highway project feasibility study analysis the overall train of thought, content, steps and methods,using the AHP method to determine risk index, preliminary study and the establishment of social stability risk evaluation stage of feasibility study of highway project system. Based on the social stability risk of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region S201 line hadatu to Hailarsection of highway engineering feasibility study stage of the analysis of the project as the research object, combined with the actual project, theevaluation index system, demonstrates that the whole process of social risk analysis. The index system considers the organic combination of legitimacy,rationality, feasibility and controllability of the project, by the method of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis of the source of the problemand to determine the main existence, so as to put forward the riskcountermeasures, avoid and reduce risk factors. Provide direction torelated responsibility main body project, to ensure the smooth implementation and operation of the project. Key Words Highway project; risk; social stability; analytic hierarchy process目 录 I 目 录 摘要................................................................I Abstract...........................................................II 第 1 章 绪论 .....................................................3 1.1 报告研究背景与意义...............................................................................3 1.2 国内外研究现状.......................................................................................5 1.2.1 国外研究现状....................................................................................5 1.2.2 国内研究现状....................................................................................7 1.2.3 社会稳定的风险因素研究................................................................9 1.2.4 国内外研究现状总结......................................................................12 1.3 研究的主要目标及基本思路.................................................................12 1.3.1 本文研究的目标................................................................................12 1.3.2 研究思路及实施步骤.........................................................................13 1.4 研究内容及方法.....................................................................................15 1.4.1 研究内容..........................................................................................15 1.4.2 研究方法..........................................................................................17 1.4.3 工作原则..........................................................................................17 1.5 本文研究的内容及框架.........................................................................19 第 2 章 公路项目的社会稳定风险因素识别研究 ......................21 2.1 主要的风险因素识别.............................................................................21 2.2 风险因素估计.........................................................................................26 2.3 本章小结.................................................................................................27 第 3 章 公路项目的社会稳定风险因素分析研究 ......................29 3.1 社会稳定风险因素评价体系.................................................................29 3.2 社会稳定风险因素评价办法.................................................................30 3.3 层次分析法确定风险因素权重（I i ） ..................................................33 3.3.1 建立分析风险因素指标的递阶层次结构模型..............................33 3.3.2 构造两两矩阵..................................................................................39 3.3.3 一致性检验......................................................................................39 3.4 本章小结.................................................................................................39 第 4 章 公路项目的社会稳定风险因素控制研究 ......................41北京工业大学工程硕士专业学位报告 II 4.1 社会稳定风险控制措施.........................................................................41 4.2 措施后的社会稳定风险.........................................................................45 4.3 本章小结.................................................................................................47 第 5 章 公路项目可行性研究阶段的社会稳定风险分析应用 ............49 5.1 项目概况........................................................................................................49 5.2 风险因素识别................................................................................................50 5.3 风险因素分析...............................................................................................56 5.4 风险因素防范和控制....................................................................................69 5.5 本章小结.......................................................................................................72 结 论..............................................................73