1 摘要 珠宝首饰行业是非常古老的行业，在经济中占有十分重要的地位。中国现已 成为全球最大的珠宝首饰消费市场，然而最近 3 年，中国珠宝首饰的销售额呈现 断崖式的下降，由此珠宝首饰行业进入洗牌、整合、升级的阶段。要想在这种行 业背景下立于不败之地，就要开始探索珠宝首饰行业的全新经营模式。SN 首饰 体验馆项目主要在传统珠宝首饰经营模式的基础上开拓新的经营模式，要想正式 投入运营仍需对项目有更全方位的可行性研究以及更多的资金支持。因此，本文 对 SN 首饰体验馆项目进行投资可行性研究，拟为投资者提供 SN 首饰体验馆项 目是否具有投资可行性的参考意见，同时也为投入经营后的 SN 首饰体验馆提供 营销策略、定价方式、营销渠道等方面的建议。 本文的研究内容包括所处行业可行性分析、市场可行性分析、技术可行性分 析、环境可行性分析、财务可行性分析、敏感性及风险分析。其中，所处行业可 行性分析、技术可行性分析和环境可行性分析部分主要是定性研究，市场可行性 分析、财务可行性分析、敏感性及风险分析部分主要是定量研究。 本文的创新点体现在两个方面，一方面是研究对象的创新，投资项目可行性 研究的对象和以往的工程、工业项目有所不同，本文是以盈利性质的 SN 首饰体 验馆为研究对象，为投资者提供决策建议；另一方面，在内容上进行了创新，第 一，基于“波特五力模型”对珠宝首饰行业竞争结构进行了分析，第二，将列联 分析方法应用于目标消费群体的预测中去，第三，将营销组合问题作为 SN 首饰 体验馆市场可行性分析的重要内容，也是本文的重要创新点。 通过一系列的研究，本文得出结论如下：SN 首饰体验馆项目的投资具有可 行性。投资回收期为 3.94 年，净现值 NPV 远大于 0，计算期内投资效益较好， 内含报酬率大于社会折现率。总的来说，SN 首饰体验馆项目既能满足投资者的 收益需求，又能为消费者提供个性需求，还能为社会发展做出一定贡献，项目发 展前景可观。 关键词：珠宝首饰，体验馆，投资，可行性Abstract 2 Abstract The jewelry industry has a long history and occupies an important position in the economy. Now our country has become the world’s largest jewelry consumer market. In the recent 3 years, however, China's jewelry sales fall rendering of precipice. As a result, the jewelry industry is entering into the integration upgrade stage. We must explore a new business model of the jewelry industry if we want to be an impregnable position in this industry. SN jewelry experience pavilion project develop the new business model on the basis of the traditional jewelry business. While it still need to have a more comprehensive feasibility research and more financial support to put into operation. Therefore, the purpose of this article is not only to provide the reference that if the SN jewelry experience pavilion is investment feasibility or not for the investors, but also provide advice for SN jewelry experience pavilion on marketing strategy, pricing, marketing channels, etc. The research contents of this article include industry feasibility analysis, market feasibility analysis, technical feasibility analysis, environmental feasibility analysis, financial feasibility analysis, sensitivity analysis and risk analysis. Among them, the industry feasibility analysis, technical feasibility analysis and environmental feasibility analysis part mainly using the qualitative research methods. Meanwhile, market feasibility analysis, financial feasibility analysis, sensitivity analysis and risk analysis part mainly using the quantitative research methods. In this article, the innovations embodied in two aspects: On one hand, the research object of this article is SN jewelry experience pavilion which is a for-profit project different with engineering projects; On the other hand, this article has carried on the innovation in the content. First, This paper analyzes the competition structure of jewelry industry based on the Michael Porter’s Five Forces Model. Second, The prediction of the target consumer group applied the Contingency analysis method. At last, Use the marketing mix strategy as the important content of market feasibility analysis. This is also an important innovation point of this article.Abstract 3 Through a series of research, this article concluded as follows: SN jewelry experience pavilion project investment is feasible. The payback period is 3.94 years. The net present value is far greater than 0. During the calculating period it can receive a good investment benefit. The growth rate of IRR is greater than the capital. On the whole, SN jewelry experience pavilion project can not only meet the demand of investors’ profit, but also can provide individuality demand for consumers. What’s more, it can make a certain contribution for social development. The project has a considerable development prospects. Key words: jewelry, experience pavilion, investment, feasibility目录 I 目 录 1 绪论 ..............................................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景.................................................................................................................................1 1.1.1 行业宏观环境背景..........................................................................................................1 1.1.2 企业项目背景..................................................................................................................3 1.2 研究目的及意义.....................................................................................................................4 1.3 研究内容.................................................................................................................................5 1.4 国内外研究现状.....................................................................................................................6 1.4.1 国外研究现状..................................................................................................................6 1.4.2 国内研究现状..................................................................................................................7 1.5 研究方法.................................................................................................................................8 1.5.1 资料调查方法..................................................................................................................9 1.5.2 研究方法..................................................................................................................9 1.6 研究思路与技术路线.............................................................................................................9 1.7 研究的创新之处...................................................................................................................11 2 理论与方法综述.........................................................................................................................12 2.1 市场营销理论综述...............................................................................................................12 2.1.1 市场营销理论的发展....................................................................................................12 2.1.2 市场预测的方法............................................................................................................13 2.2 战略管理理论综述...............................................................................................................13 2.2.1 PEST 分析法 .................................................................................................................13 2.2.2 波特“五力模型”分析法 ...............................................................................................14 2.2.3 SWOT 分析法 ...............................................................................................................14 2.3 可行性研究与方法综述.......................................................................................................15 2.3.1 可行性研究的定义........................................................................................................15 2.3.2 可行性研究的内容........................................................................................................15 2.3.3 可行性研究的主要指标及计算方法..................................