空气是地球上一切生命体赖以生存的最基本条件。众所周知,清洁的空气被污染 以后,危害人类健康,影响动植物生长,以致影响全球气候变化,威胁人类及动植物 的生存。能源、环境是当今世界所面临的两大严峻的现实问题,随着经济的高速发展, 人类赖以生存的环境却日益恶化,污染问题层出不穷。环境保护越来越重要,治理尾 气排放已成为世界各国关注的重点。柴油车与汽油车相比具有更好的燃油经济性、更 低的二氧化碳排放、强劲的动力性、耐久性及安全性等方面的优势,柴油机颗粒过滤 器通过过滤或化学反应来降低排气中颗粒物,过滤效率在80%90%之间。 Cysc公司是中国电瓷行业的重点骨干企业,主要产品陶瓷绝缘子的生产品种、 数量位居行业之首,生产吨位居行业第二。公司以优良产品和良好信誉成为国家电网 公司的主要合格供应商,铁道绝缘子在国内铁道行业享有盛名,产品还畅销40多个 国家和地区,为进一步拓展发展空间,公司准备成立柴油机颗粒过滤器项目事业部, 专门从事柴油机颗粒过滤器的幵发、生产和销售。 本文对cysc公司的柴油微粒过滤器项目进行了可行性研究,主要采用了定性分 析和定量评估的方法,对项目的市场可行性,技术可行性,经济可行性,内部条件, 生产能力(规模),技术解决方案,营销策略和定价,投资和融资的估计,以及销售 税收等方面,都进行比较全面和深入的分析研究。该项目还通过基本财务报表的编制, 分析估算了投资回收期,净现值,内部回报率和有关财务分析等财务指标, 最后,本文运用盈亏平衡分析和敏感性分析项目的方法,进行了不确定性和风险 分析,以提高项目经济评价和决策更加科学,更加可靠,降低风险。 综上所述,cysc公司的柴油机颗粒过滤器项目,技术先进,规模合理,是改善 我国的环境状况、减少污染的有效方式。这个研究项目符合国家环保产业政策的发展, 条件较好、产品市场广阔。项目是可行的和必要的,不仅能取得较好的经济效益,也 能取得较好的社会效益和环境效益。 关键词:财务预测;产业化;可行性研究 Abstract T.程硕I:报告 Abstract Air is the basic requirement for the survival of all the lives on the earth. As everyone knows, air pollution affect human health, affect plant and animal growth seriously, it also impact the global climate change and threat to the survival of human and animal. Energy, environment is currently world's two serious realistic problems. Along with the rapid economic development, the human survival environment is worsening, pollution problems emerge in an endless stream. Protecting environment becomes more and more important. Emission control has become the focus of the world. Compared with gasoline vehicles, Diesel is better in fuel economy. Lower carbon dioxide emissions, strong power, durability and safety. Diesel filtration can reduce the exhaust particulate matter via chemical reaction. The efficiency can reach between in 80% 90o/o. The Cysc Company is an important electrical industry in China. The main products of ceramic insulator production varieties, volume ranked first in the industry. The production ranks the second in the industry. Based on the high quality and good reputation, the company had become the main suppliers to the national electricity. The insulator in the domestic railway industry renowned, product is also sold in more than 40 countries and regions; the company is currently in a good momentum of development. In order to further improve the market competitiveness of products,enhance the company's ability to resist risks, seek new profit point of growth, the company is ready to build a department for the diesel particulate filter project, expecially for the development, production and sales of pecializing in diesel filter. This documentation states the research about the project of particulate filter project feasibility. Mainly uses the methord of qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation. The rearch is mainly towards possibility of marking, technical and economy, the internal requirement and the ablity of producing. The analysis is including technical solution, sales strategy and evaluation, investment and financing and tax on sales. We explained in this documantion in a comparative comprehensive and in-depth way about the research. Based on financial statements, the document estimates the internal rate of return, net value and the payback period. II 工程硕上报告 cysc公柴油机颗粒过滤器产业化可行性研究 At last, this paper adopts the break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis of project uncertainty and risk analysis, in order to improve the reliability of project economic evaluation and decision-making scientific sex. In summary,The Cysc company diesel particulate filter is advanced technology projects with a reasonable size which can improve China's environmental health, environmental pollution control in effective way. The construction of the project in line with the national policy of environmental protection industry development direction,to the environmental protection industry technical progress has oriented effect. The construction condition is better, product market is broad. Project construction is feasible, necessary, not only to better economic benefits,but also good to social and environmental. Keywords: financial forecast; industrialization; feasibility study hi n汆 n程硕丄报告 目录 m要 I Abstract II 1 躲 1 1.1选题背景 1 1.1.1汽车尾气的危害 1 1.1.2汽车尾气的治理 1 1.1.3柴油机颗粒过滤器的优势 1 1.1.4 cysc公司实施项目的前景 2 1.2研究意义 3 1.2.1提供技术装备加强汽车尾气排放控制 3 1.2.2促进cysc公司未来发展与产业延伸 4 1.2.3项目投资决策可行性研究作用 4 1.3研究内容 5 1.4技术路线及研究方法 5 1.5 报告结构 6 2可行性研究的相关理论与方法 7 2.1技术可行性分析 7 2.2经济可行性分析 8 2.3 项目管理的基本理论方法 10 2.4工程经济分析的相关理论方法 10 3柴油机颗粒过滤器项目所处的内外环境分析 12 3.1项目的市场分析 12 3.1.1 国外市场现状 12 3.1.2 国内市场现状 12 3.1.3 未来市场预测 13 3.1.4柴油机颗粒过滤器市场需求量预测 14 3.1.5柴油机颗粒过滤器产品的市场生命周期预测 15 3.1.6企业可能获得的初始市场分析 16 3.1.7柴油机颗粒过滤器项目的资金市场分析 17 3.2 CYSC公司内部环境及条件分析 17 3.2.1企业的营销能力分析 17 工程硕士报告 cysc公勺柴油机颗粒过滤器产业化町行性研究 3.2.2 企业获得的认可 18 3.3柴油机颗粒过滤器技术及工艺可行性分析 21 3.3.1技术先进性分析 21 3.3.2技术经济性分析 22 3.3.3技术适用性和安全性分析 22 3.3.4柴油机颗粒过滤器工艺可行性分析 22 3.4柴油机颗粒过滤器项目产业化态势(SWOT)分析 24 4柴油机颗粒过滤器产品的生产方案设计 26 4.1柴油机颗粒过滤器生产技术目标、原则及方案 26 4.1.1生产技术目标及原则 26 4.1.2生产技术方案 27 4.2柴油机颗粒过滤器生产规模方案的设计 27 4.2.1 生产能力核定 28 4.2.2交货期的保证方案 31 4.2.3价格管理方案 32 4.3人力资源配置方案 :33 5项目财务分析及评价 35 5.1柴油机颗粒过滤器项目投资估算 35 5.1.1固定资产投资估算 35 5.1.2流动资金估算 37 5.1.3 项目总资金估算 37 5.2柴油机颗粒过滤器项目资金来源及规划 37 5.3柴油机颗粒过滤器项目成本估算 37 5.3.1 生产成本费用估算 38 5.3.2期间费用估算 39 5.3.3其他费用估算 40 5.4柴油机颗粒过滤器销售收入与税费估算 40 5.5柴油机颗粒过滤器项目的综合财务分析 41 5.5.1 基本的财务报表 41 5.5.2静态财务指标 42 5.5.3 动态财务指标 42 5.5.4项目的财务效益评估 44 6柴油机颗粒过滤器项目的风险与不确定性分析 45 6.1项目的财务盈亏平衡分析 45 V ii.A T程_丨论义 6.2 项ti的敏感性分析 46 7 总结与展望 49 1:谢 50