东莞一直处于土地矛盾突出和产业转型过渡的双重困境，以往依赖外向型加工贸易 模式，以土地换资金，以空间换发展，导致东莞土地资源过度开发，2014 年土地综合开 发强度已高达 46.7%，仅次于发达城市深圳土地开发强度 48%。同时由于过去城乡规划 滞后和管理缺位，形成大量低效的“旧城镇、旧村庄、旧厂房”，目前东莞处于一方面 是土地资源短缺，另一方面是大量资源闲置。随着粤港澳大湾区的规划利好，东莞新一 轮城市发展和经济腾飞，亟需土地资源升级换代。通过三旧改造，盘活存量土地，利用 好这些老化土地空间，将低效的存量土地转化经济发展中有效的增量资源，促进城市持 续发展，已成为社会共识，而面对现有土地缺乏的情况下，越来越多房地产发展商也把 目光投进“三旧”改造。因此本文针对特定的“三旧”改造项目，以商业计划书的形式， 运用可行性研究、营销管理、财务测算等理论，对项目整体性的评估和计划。 本商业计划书从房地产开发和营销角度研究“三旧”项目的商业运营模式，并结合 三旧改造的特殊性，以东莞市月山村“三旧”改造项目实际案例进行研究。分别从国内 外相关理论综述、案例取证、项目现状及改造必要性、投资环境分析等方面论证月山村 旧改项目的可行性。从 SWOT 分析、产品定位、营销策略、财务及效益等方面构建月 山村旧改项目的运营模式，并提出房地产发展商在旧改过程中面临的各种风险和利益权 衡，保证在众多不可控的风险下正常运营。从可行性到项目定位到营销，建立“三旧” 改造项目整体运营模式，有利于增强政府和投资方的信心和支持，为“三旧”改造项目 后期开发和营销提供一定的参考经验。 关键词，月山村；三旧改造 ；房地产；商业计划II Abstract Dongguan has been in a dilemma of the contradiction between the land and the industrial transformation. The dependence on export-oriented processing trade, expenditure of land for money and expenditure of space for development, result in land resources over exploitation. The land development intensity of Dongguan has reached 46.7% in 2014, second only to Shenzhen's 48%. At the same time as the urban and rural planning lag and lack of management, resulting in a large number of the old town, the old village, the old plant, for one thing is currently in a shortage of land resources, for another is a large number of idle resources. With the plan of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, a new round of Dongguan city and economic development desiderates land upgrading. Through three old reconstruction, to reform and revitalize the stock land, to make good use of these aging land space, to turn inefficient land into effective incremental resources in economic development and promote the urbanization, has become a social consensus. And faced with the existing land scarce, more and more real estate developers look into the three old transformation. Therefore, this paper researches the feasibility and the overall plan of the specific three old transformation project, in the form of a business plan, in use of the feasibility study, marketing management, financial analysis and so on. The business plan studies the case of three old reconstruction for Dongguan Yueshan village, from the views of the developing and marketing theory, combined of the particular three old project business model. From the domestic and foreign related theory review, case evidence, project status and necessity of transformation, investment environment analysis, it demonstrates the feasibility of three old reconstruction for Yueshan village. The paper project the operation mode from the SWOT analysis, product positioning, marketing strategy and financial benefits, and proposes that the estate developers how to weigh all the benefits and risks faced by the process, to ensure the normal operation of the risk in many uncontrollable under. From feasibility to project orientation to marketing, the establishment of the three old transformation project overall operation mode will help enhance the confidence and support of the government and investors, and provide some reference experience for the development and marketing of three old transformation projects. Key words: Yueshan Village;Three-Old Reconstruction;Real Estate;Feasibility studyIII 目 录 摘要 .................................................................... I ABSTRACT ................................................................. II 目 录 ................................................................... III 第一章 绪 论 .............................................................. 1 1.1 研究背景和意义 ........................................................ 1 1.2 相关研究综述 .......................................................... 2 1.2.1 国内外关于“三旧”改造的研究综述 .................................. 2 1.2.2 国内外关于可行性分析的研究综述 .................................... 3 1.3 广州市猎德村案例简析 .................................................. 4 1.4 研究内容与方法 ........................................................ 5 1.4.1 研究内容 .......................................................... 5 1.4.2 研究方法 .......................................................... 6 1.5 本章小结.............................................................. 6 第二章 项目概况 ........................................................... 7 2.1 规划前景 .............................................................. 7 2.2 月山村基本概况 ........................................................ 7 2.2.1 基本属性 .......................................................... 7 2.2.2 区位分析 .......................................................... 8 2.2.3 交通概况 .......................................................... 9 2.2.4 配套情况 .......................................................... 9 2.2.5 现状分析 .......................................................... 9 2.3 月山村改造必要性 ..................................................... 10 2.4 本章小结 ............................................................. 12 第三章 项目宏观分析 ...................................................... 13 3.1 经济环境分析 ......................................................... 13 3.2 社会环境分析 ......................................................... 14 3.2.1 东莞城市概况 ..................................................... 14IV 3.2.2 东莞城市规划 ..................................................... 15 3.2.3 大岭山城市定位和规划 ............................................. 17 3.3 政策环境分析 ......................................................... 18 3.3.1 土地政策分析 ..................................................... 18 3.3.2 房地产政策分析 ................................................... 19 3.4 市场环境分析 ......................................................... 20 3.4.1 土地市场分析 ..................................................... 21 3.4.2 商品房市场分析 ................................................... 23 3.4.3 大岭山和松山湖市场分析 ........................................... 24 3.5 竞品环境分析 ......................................................... 27 3.6 本章小结 ............................................................. 29 第四章 项目规划及定位 .................................................... 30 4.1 市场调查与分析 ....................................................... 30 4.2 三旧改造赔偿及安置办法 ............................................... 32 4.3 项目规划 ............................................................. 33 4.3.1 整体规划 ......................................................... 33 4.3.2 物业规划 ......................................................... 35 4.4 SWOT 分析及项目定位 .................................................. 38 4.4.1 优势分析（Strength） ............................................. 38 4.4.2 劣势分析（Weakness） ............................................. 39 4.4.3 潜在机会（Opportunity） .......................................... 39 4.4.4 潜在威胁（Thread） ............................................... 40 4.4.5 SWOT 战略 ........................................................ 41 4.4.6 形象定位 ......................................................... 41 4.5 客户预判分析 ......................................................... 41 4.6 本章小结 ........................................