从 2008 年全球性金融危机的爆发到 2010 年的欧债危机，金融业过度投机而无有效监 管的问题引起各国高度关注，现今欧洲各国面对繁重的债务，开始考虑借助税收来调控金 融产业，欧盟自 2010 年起陆续提出了各种税收提案。而金融市场的稳定发展也一直是我 国经济发展的核心，借鉴欧盟金融交易税的经验，对促进我国金融市场的稳健运行，具有 重要意义。因此，本文以 2016 年欧盟即将开始征收的金融交易税为基础，研究对中国银 行业开征金融交易税可行性。 本文从理论规范和实证两方面对我国银行业开征金融交易税的可行性进行分析。理论 规范部分介绍国际资本流动性及实际税收负担理论，并对金融交易税对我国的借鉴作用深 入分析；实证部分首先从我国国际收支平衡的角度研究我国国际资本的流动性，利用三个 项目调整后的国际投机资本规模估算公式，估算国际投机资本现况，通过汇率及外汇投资 收益变动调整外汇储备增加额；利用时间序列回归模拟真实的贸易顺差调整对外贸易顺 差；利用 OLS 回归模型，选取三个主要因素影响构建回归模型调整 FDI；其次，本文对我 国银行业税收负担进行研究，并与其他行业及国际主要机构税负进行对比；最后，利用上 市银行数据，构建税收与主营业务收入的面板回归模型，分析间接税政策的有效性。 通过研究得出以下结论，1、中国境内国际投机资本规模较大，开征金融交易税控制 国际投机资本，防止其扰乱金融市场，是有必要的；2、对我国金融行业（以银行业为代 表）进行分析，发现其不存在过重的税收负担，而且间接税能较好的发挥政策效果，影响 其主营业务，因此，我国开征金融交易税是切实可行的。3、借鉴欧盟经验，针对未来我 国可能会实施的金融交易税，提出相关的政策建议。 本文的创新点主要有，一是选取 2016 年正式开始实施的欧盟金融交易税为视角进行 研究具有前沿性；二是选取银行业进行分析具有代表性，可为其他金融机构的分析做铺垫； 三是采用定性与定量相结合的方法，定性分析了金融交易税会产生的影响，还选取我国上 市银行的实证数据进行定量研究，研究方法较为全面。 关键词，金融交易税；银行业；国际投机资本；税收负担II Abstract Since the wave of the global financial crisis in 2008 and the European debt crisis in 2010, the issue of financial sector excessive speculation without effective re gulation has attracted worldwide attention. Now facing heavy debts in Europe, the European Union began to consider using taxation to regulate the financial industry. The EU have proposed a variety of tax proposals since 2010. Stabilization of China financial market is a hot issue nowadays. Can we learn from the experience of the EU financial transaction taxThis article will discuss the effects on the banking industry in China if EU financial transaction tax would be levied in 2016. This paper will apply theoretical and empirical research methods to research on the feasibility of levying financial transactions tax on banks in China. Theoretical research part make a brief introduction of the theory of International capital flows and the ETR，then make a deeper research of the EU financial transaction tax; Empirical research part analysis the international capital mobility through China's international balance of payments, and through the formulas for estimating the scale of international speculative capital, there need to adjust the three items as amount of foreign exchange reserves, foreign trade surplus and FDI: the amount of foreign exchange reserves increased to adjust the exchange rate change and the portion of the investment income; foreign trade surplus adjustment is using time-series regression simulate real trade surplus; FDI adjustment is using OLS regression model, select its three main factors to build regression models; secondly, it researches the tax burden of banking and make comparison with other industries and major international institutions, reuse listed bank data, and the main business income and their tax data to build a panel regression model to analyze the effectiveness of tax policy. Through this paper research, it had proved China exist a large scale of the international speculative capital, and its volatility is larger, China levy tax on financial transactions to control international speculative capital, to prevent its disrupt China's financial markets, it is necessary; At the same time, analyzing China's financial sector (banking industry as a representative) and found their tax burden isn’t heavy, furthermore, it plays a good policyeffect through indirect tax policy for banking to control their main business, therefore, our country impose the financialIII transaction tax is feasible. In the last part of this paper, for the financial transaction tax could be imposed by our country in the future, it puts forward relevant policy recommendations drawing on the experience of EU. The innovation point of this paper are as follows: the first is the EU financial transaction tax will be started from 2016, choosing it as the angle of view is advanced; the second is the selection of the banking as a representative to analysis, can pave the way for the analysis of other financial institutions; the third is the research method which combine with the theoretical and empirical, qualitative analysis on the effect of FTT will produce, also selected empirical data of listed banks in China to carry on quantitative research, using comprehensive research method. Key words: Financial transactions tax; Banking; International speculative capital; Tax burdenIV 目录 摘要..................................................................................................................................................I Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................II 目录................................................................................................................................................IV 图表目录.........................................................................................................................................V 1 绪论 .............................................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景 ...........................................................................................................................1 1.2 国内外研究现状 ...............................................................................................................2 1.3 本文研究内容及方法 .......................................................................................................5 1.4 创新之处 ...........................................................................................................................8 2 理论基础 .....................................................................................................................................9 2.1 国际间资本流动性理论 ...................................................................................................9 2.2 税收负担理论 .................................................................................................................12 2.3 小结 .................................................................................................................................12 3 我国银行业开征金融交易税可行性的实证分析 ...................................................................13 3.1 我国银行业背景现状分析 .............................................................................................13 3.2 税收负担分析 .................................................................................................................28 3.3 我国银行业税收与营业收入关系分析 .........................................................................31 3.4 小结 .................................................................................................................................34 4 欧盟金融交易税借鉴分析 .......................................................................................................36 4.1 金融交易税的目的 .........................................................................................................36 4.2 金融交易税的预期效果 .................................................................................................38 4.3 金融交