模块化建筑从诞生.以来就一直在影响着建筑的设计与建造等关键性问题。在 当今社会的发展过程中能源、环境、土地等因素已经成为制约建筑领域进一步发 展的主要障碍,科学技术的进步带给人类的不仅仅是前所未有的消费驱动力,还 伴随着不可估量的资源消耗和环境恶化。在未来任何领域中的标准、制度、技术、 观念都将逐渐地开始发生转变,建筑设计领域也是如此,提高建筑设计的水平, 有效对接工业化建筑和绿色建筑是未来建筑优化设计领域主要发展方向,也是必 然的趋势。我国目前建筑施工企业的大部分仍然采用现场施工的模式,先建筑材 料运到施工现场,然后根据现场状况进行施工,由此不仅产生了大量的噪声、废 气等污染,而且大量的消耗水、电等能源。这种传统的施工方式造成劳动生产率 低,根本无法适应现代建筑工业化的发展趋势。引入模块化施工理念将会大大提 高劳动生产率,提高建筑工程质量,改善一线人员工作环境,减少安全事故,降 低工程成本。大力推广模块化建筑体系将会改善我国现行的建筑施工模式,并且 也会带动其上下游的产业链升级换代。模块化建筑技术是未来的一个发展趋势, 可以想象,将来造房子完全可以像造汽车一样工厂化施工。因此,为了能使其成 为建筑业技术的一个重要组成部分,政府、房地产商、相关专家学者需要不断进 行研究、实践,逐步建立、完善其相关理论和技术体系。J公司对中国国内模块化 建筑市场的现状引起了该公司决策层的浓厚兴趣,故此决定对模块化建筑市场进 行一次全面的市场可行性分析研究,本文所做的模块化建筑项目的可行性研究是 其决策的依据之一。 本文首先阐述本项目可行性研究的背景、意义及国内外的研究。通过阅读相 关的文献资料,对可行性研究的发展、内容、方法等方面做详细的介绍。结合可 行性研究的理论和J公司的模块化建筑生产项目相关的产业政策、消费状况,进 行项目市场定位,作出消费预测,并且对项目的竞争力、出口创汇能力、市场战 略进行详细的市场分析。项目的实施可行性分析从技术可行性、人力资源配置、 环境、节能、劳动安全卫生及消防等方面产开。通过可行性研究的初期资料收集、 现场的考察,结合财务评价基础数据和参数制作了固定资产投资估算表、铺底流 山东大学硕士学位 动资金估算表、总投资构成分析一览表、投资计划与资金筹措表、资金使用计划 与运用表、综合总成本费用估算表等12张财务方面表格,运用财务分析的公式对 项目的财务可行性进行判断。此外还分析项目的风险,确定了风险源,找到 相对应的策略。最终给出结论和建议,认为此项目是可行的,应立即组织实施。 关键词:建筑模块化,可行性分析,市场分析,经济分析 2 山东大学硕士学位 Abstract The modular architecture from its birth has been the key problem affecting building design and construction etc.. Energy, in the process of development in today's society environment, land and other factors have become the main obstacles restricting the further development of the construction sector, human science and technology progress to bring is not only the hitherto unknown consumption driving force, accompanied by the consumption of resources and deterioration of environment immeasurable. In any future in the field of standard, system, technology, ideas will gradually began to change, and so is the scope of architectural design, improve design level, the effective docking industrial building and green building is the future development direction of optimization design mainly in the field of architecture, but also the inevitable trend. At present most of the construction enterprises still use the site construction mode,the first building materials transported to the construction site, and then the construction according to the site condition, which not only produced a lot of noise, exhaust pollution,but also a large consumption of water, electricity and other energy. The construction of this traditional way cause labor productivity is low, cannot adapt to the development trend of modern architectural industrialization. The introduction of modular construction concept will greatly improve labor productivity, improve quality of construction engineering, improve the working environment of frontline staff, reduce accidents, reduce the cost of the project. Vigorously promote the modular construction system will improve our current construction mode, and will drive the downstream industry chain upgrading. Modular construction technology is a development trend, the future can imagine, the future to build a house can like cars like the factory construction. Therefore, in order to make it become an important part of construction technology, the government, the real estate business, the relevant experts and scholars need to study, practice, and gradually establish, perfect the related theory and technology system. Current situation of domestic construction market China modular J aroused great interest in the company decision-making layer, therefore decided to carry out construction market on the module of a market feasibility comprehensive, modular construction project feasibility study done in this paper is one 3 山东大学硕士学位 of the basis for decision-making. This paper first introduces the study background, significance and the domestic and foreign research on the feasibility of the project. By reading relevant documents, a detailed introduction on development, the feasibility study of the contents, methods and so on. Combined with the theory of the feasibility study and J's modular construction projects related to industrial policy,consumption situation, the project market positioning, make consumption forecasting, and the project competition, export capacity, market strategy for a detailed market analysis. The implementation of the project feasibility analysis from the technical feasibility, the allocation of human resources, environment, energy saving, labor safety and health aspects of open fire. After the initial data collection, the feasibility study of field investigation, combined with the financial evaluation of basic data and parameters of the production of the fixed assets investment estimation table, working table,estimated total investment capital structure analysis schedule, investment plan and fund raising, planned use of funds and use table, total cost assessment table 12 financial in terms of form, are used to judge the financial analysis formula of the financial feasibility of the project. In addition, this thesis also analyzes the project risk, identified the risk source, find the corresponding strategy. Finally gives the conclusion and suggestion, that the project is feasible, shall immediately organize the implementation. Keywords: Modular architecture, feasibility analysis, market analysis, economic analysis 4 山东大学硕士学位 第1章导论 1.1研究背景与研究意义 1.1.1研究背景 人类自进入工业社会后,尤其是近代以来,生产力迅猛发展,在征服自然和 改造自然的斗争中取得了巨大的成就,人类文明有了长足的进步。但是,人类在 取得成就的同时,也付出了极大的代价。伴随着社会科学技术的不断发展与进步 以及全球人口的持续增长,导致了可用于居住的土地严重不足,使得人们在一直 思考与寻找出新的建筑模式。新的建筑模式应针对适应不同气候带来采取相应的 技术和本地的材料设备,组织标准化、规模化、工业化的生产和供应,只有这样,. 才能有效地提高质量、改善品质、降低成本、节约资源、减轻污染,并以其普适 性加快推广和应用⑴。对于建筑界而言,如何达到合理的规划建筑整体布局,从而 更好地把人类居住、办公、生活、休闲的建筑空间与大自然有机的相结合,更好 地利用可再生资源作为建筑的主导材料,节约土地、水等资源,减少建筑垃圾的 排放量,为人类创造出和谐的生态环境,是当今每一位建筑师的责任和使命[2]。模 块化建筑作为众多工业化建筑体系中的一种,能够很好地满足当前社会的需求。 模块的概念源于英文单词module,该单词又可翻译为模数。在《朗文现代英 汉双解词典》中,模块的意思是有标准形状及大小的组件,这些组件是用于建筑、 制造家具、产品设计等。中文词典把模块定义为能够组合成系统的、具有某种确 定功能和接口结构的、典型的通用独立单元。模块化的概念至今没有统一的定义, 目前模块化比较统一的理解是一种设计方法,同时也是一种标准化的方法[3]。模块 化建筑是将建筑的基本模块单元、辅助模块单元、屋顶模块单元、围挡模块单元 等结构件在工厂调试完毕,然后通过运输吊装工具送到施工现场,在现场将各单 元体结构通过标准的连接方式组装而建成的建筑,在日本及欧美被称作工业化建 筑或产业化建筑。单元体结构,如同一个个火柴盒,但又不局限于四边形的方体。 每个单元体可以是多边形的,呈现不同的形体构造。这些利用特殊新型节能材料 5 山东大学硕士学位 修建起来的单元体,将通过插件,拼插燥接在一起。这一过程有些类似于搭火柴 盒,或是儿童搭建、拼插积木玩具。现代的建筑模块化概念雏形正是受