房地产业是基础性行业,是一切经济活动的基础和载体,具有高度的敏感性 和超前性,对整个国民经济发展具有积极的促进作用然而随着房价的不断上涨, 国家对房地产业宏观调控力度的加强,房地产市场受国家政策影响越来越大,房 地产开发过程中的风险进一步增大,对项目的经济评价及不确定性分析显得非常 必要运用敏感性分析能够找出影响商品住宅经济指标的不确定因素,为开发商 制定风险防范措施提供帮助 本文通过阅读大量国内外相关文献,借鉴其研究成果的基础上,依据房地产 经济学的基本理论,从房地产开发项目的特点入手,论述了商品住宅项目所具有 的不确定性特征;通过敏感性分析法在商品住宅项目可行性研究中的应用,系统 研究并探讨了各因素对于项目经济指标的影响程度,并运用定价模型!线性多目 标规划等多种方法对经济评价中各种显性不确定因素进行估测,明确了各因素在 构成房地产开发项目现金流量中的作用,最后结合对各不确定因素在一定变化幅 度范围内发生概率的区间统计,确定影响项目经济指标的敏感性因素,为开发商 寻求规避政策风险的有效手段提供一定的理论基础 关键词:商品住宅,敏感性分析,不确定因素 报告类型:应用研究西安建筑科技大学硕士学位报告 APPlicationontheSensitivityAnalysisoffeasibilitystudyof CommereialResidential SPeeialty:ManagementSeienceandEngineering Name:XiongGuangHui Instructor:ProfLiu兀aoJun ABSTRACT Realestate15akindofleadinginfrastruetureIndustry,15thebaseande盯ierofthe wholeeconomicalactionwithitshighsuseePtibilityandadvaneed,whichPlaysa Promotingroleinthenationaleeonomy,HoweveralongwiththehousePrieeunceasing rise,theeoUntryregulatesandeontrolsthemaeroeeonomieenhaneemenitothereal estate,therealestatemarkethasbeeninflueneedmoreandmorebythenationalPolie苏 intheProPertydeveloPmeniProeessriskfurtherinereases,itaPPearsextremely essentialtotheProjecteeonomieevaluationandtheuneertaintyanalysis.Through aPPlyingsensitivityanalysisitcan血dthev硕ousfactorsaffeetingtheeeonomie evaluationtargetinordertoProvidersthehelPforthedeveloPerstomakeoutthe Protectivemeasure. 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Keywords:eonunereialresideniial,sensitivityanalysis,uneertalntyfaetors TyPeofdissertation:APPlieationResearch西安建筑科技大学硕士学位报告 目录 第1章绪论.............................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景.......................................................................................................1 1.2研究意义.......................................................................................................1 1.2.1理论意义............................................................................................1 1.2.2实践意义............................................................................................2 1.3研究内容和方法...........................................................................................3 1.3.1研究内容及逻辑框架........................................................................3 1.3.2研究方法............................................................................................4 1.4国内外研究现状...........................................................................................4 1.4.1国外研究现状....................................................................................4 1.4.2国内研究现状....................................................................................6 第2章商品住宅项目敏感性分析理论基础...........................................................7 2.1商品住宅相关概念,.,.......,.,.,....................,.,...7 2.2不确定性分析的基本理论...........................................................................8 2.2.1不确定性产生机理............................................................................8 2.2.2不确定性因素类型..........................................................................10 2.3敏感性分析.................................................................................................n 2.3.1选择不确定因素及变化幅度..........................................................12 2.3.2计算不确定性因素影响程度..........................................................12 2.3.3综合评价..........................................................................................13 2.4商品住宅项目的不确定性由来.................................................................13 2.4.1商品住宅开发内含的不确定性因素..............................................13 2.4.2商品住宅开发诱发的不确定性因素..............................................14 2.4.3商品住宅项目中不确定因素之间的相互作用机理......................17 2.5商品住宅项目传统敏感性分析.................................................................18 2.5.1传统敏感性分析基本原理.............................................................19 2.5.2传统敏感性分析的局限性............................................................20 第3章商品住宅项目不确定因素的测度.............................................................21 3.1商品住宅项目开发过程中的不确定因素分析.........................................21 3.2商品住宅价格的不确定性分析.................................................................21 3.2.1商品住宅定价方法..........................................................................21 3.2.2商品住宅因素分析..........................................................................22西安建筑科技大学硕士学位报告 3.2.3案例计算说明..................................................................................23 3.3商品住宅建设投资的不确定性分析.........................................................25 3.3.1建设投资构成..................................................................................25 3.3.2建设投资估算方法..........................................................................27 3.3.3土地开发成本估算方法..................................................................28 3.3.4商品住宅建设成本不确定性分析..................................................29 3.4商品住宅开发期.........................................................................................30 3.5商品住宅开发面积.....................................................................................31 3.6商品住宅基准收益率与贷款利率.............................................................33 第4章商品住宅项目不确定因素敏感性分析.....................................................34 4.1商品住宅项目经济评价指标选择.............................................................34 4.2商品住宅不确定因素对经济评价指标的影响.........................................35 4.2.1商品住宅价格对经济评价指标的影响..........................................35 4.2.2土地开发成本对经济评价指标的影响..........................................35 4.2.3建筑成本对经济评价指标的影响..................................................36 4.2.4商品住宅开发期对经济评价指标的影响......................................36 4.2.5商品住宅开发面积对经济评价指标的影响..................................36 4.3商品住宅项目敏感性分析模型改进.........................................................37 第5章实例分析.....................................................................................................39 5.1项目概况.....................................................................................................39 5.2项目评价基础数据.................................................