Y 房地产有限公司作为广州的老牌房地产开发商，是一个资本结构多元化、产业发 展多元化的综合性企业，但多年以来其主要业务一直局限于广州范围内。由于在广州市 区内好的地块越来越少，拿地难度与成本也越来越高。为了规避激烈竞争，扩大企业规 模，增加企业的抗风险能力，该公司选择了异地扩张。中山市作为“珠中江城市群”的 重要节点城市，战略地位日益凸显，中山市的房地产市场发展前景被一致看好。正在这 种背景下 Y 公司选择进军中山。 本文通过建立五力模型对项目所在地的房地产竞争环境进行了分析，虽然今年国家 已经数次上调存款准备金和基准利率，对房地产市场、房地产企业带来了间接影响，但 中山本地政府对于房地产一直比较支持。而且中山市近年宏观经济的高速发展、人均收 入较高，为房地产市场创造了良好的经济环境，可以预见未来中山市经济将行进的更加 稳健。 在对当地市场进行了充分调研后，结合公司的战略目的，本项目定位为南区中高端 楼盘。本项目充分利用项目紧邻岐山、树木公园的特点，强调运动和健康，把“生活便 利”、“自然环境”、“南区 CBD 中心”作为置业时的主要考虑因素。商业方面考虑到市 场容量问题，业态必需区别于永安新城的商业广场，力求 “共生”。因此本项目考虑与 “红星美凯龙公司合作，引入专业建材市场。 通过对项目投资、预期收入、内部收益率等数据进行财务分析。从指标来看，本项 目收益可观，抵御风险能力强。只要控制好项目品质，加强对专业商场的招商工作，本 项目是能获得较大的收益的。而且通过本项目可为南区增加就业岗位，税收，提升南区 城市形象，可以帮助开发公司树立城市建设者的良好社会形象，具有良好的社会效益， 与公司在中山的战略定位相一致。最后得出结论，认为本项目可行。 关键词，房地产项目；商业计划书；财务评价；风险分析II Abstract Y real estate Co., LTD as one of famous real estate developers in guangzhou, is a comprehensive enterprise with capital structure diversification and industrial development diversification, but its main business has been limited in Guangzhou for many years. Because it is more and more difficult to get land in downtown, the company has to expand the area and increase enterprise anti-risk ability in order to avoid competition. Zhongshan’s strategic position is highlighted increasingly as a central city of middle pearl river, which market development prospect was unanimously valued. So Y companies choose to enter zhongshan real estate market in this situation. This article analyze competition environment of zhongshan real estate based on theory of five competitive forces. Even though government has raised deposit reserve and benchmark interest rate which affect to real estate industry, but the support from local government for zhongshan real estate has advantage. Meanwhile, the zhongshan macroeconomic is developing with high-speed in recent years, and individual income is higher, which are favorable to a good economic environment of zhongshan. The company has collected amount of data combined with the company's strategic objectives, and decided to develop the storied built with middle and high grade in southern area. This program fully advocate exercise and health, and take life convenient, natural environment, southern CBD center as the main consideration. Commercial operation will cooperate with hong xing mei kai long company and introduce professional building materials market in order to boom economy of surroundings. The article analyzed the project’s financial status through the project investment, expected income, internal rate of return data etc, and it got the result from indicators that this project will be profitable and has strong ability to resist risk. This project will make a fortune as long as the company control project quality, strengthen the merchants inviting work of professional stores. And this project can increase jobs for the southern district, taxes, ascension, also it is helpful to advocate the image of the city. The project has the good social efficiency, which is accordance with company’s strategic position. So we can draw the conclusion that the project is feasible. Keywords，Real estate project；Commercial Plan；Financial Evaluation；Risk AnalysisIII 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. II 图表清单..................................................................................................................................VI 第一章 绪 论..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究的背景和意义 ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究的背景.............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 研究的意义.............................................................................................................. 2 1.2 文献综述 ......................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 研究的方法 ..................................................................................................................... 3 1.4 研究内容和报告结构 ..................................................................................................... 3 第二章 开发商及项目所在地简介..........................................................................................5 2.1 建设单位情况介绍 ......................................................................................................... 5 2.2 项目实施地点及周边情况介绍 ..................................................................................... 7 2.3 项目的有关经济技术指标 ........................................................................................... 10 2.4 管理团队 ....................................................................................................................... 10 2.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 11 第三章 项目所在地房地产竞争环境分析............................................................................12 3.1 宏观环境 ....................................................................................................................... 12 3.1.1 国家宏观政策因素................................................................................................ 14 3.1.2 当地地理位置........................................................................................................ 14 3.1.3 当地经济发展情况................................................................................................ 15 3.1.4 当地相关法律、法规............................................................................................ 16 3.1.5 当地环保政策........................................................................................................ 17 3.2 当地产业竞争环境 ....................................................................................................... 17 3.2.1 供应商讨价还价的力量........................................................................................ 17 3.2.2 购买者讨价还价的力量........................................................................................ 18IV 3.2.3 潜在的市场进入者的威胁.................................................................................... 18 3.2.4 替代品的威胁........................................................................................................ 18 3.2.5 当地主要的竞争对手............................................................................................ 18 3.3 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 19 第四章 市场需求预测与分析................................................................................................20 4.1 大型商业中心需求分析 ..................................................................................