石油是重要的战略资源，它与全球政治格局和经济格局关系密切，一个国家石油 的开采量和储备量往往决定了国家的安全，石油安全是国家战略的重要组成部分。但 是自 1993 年以来，我国成为了石油净进口国，并且随着我国经济的高速发展，每年进 口的石油数量逐年激增，作为一种不可再生的一次能源，目前为止石油在一个国家经 济发展中的地位无可撼动。油页岩是石油的补充替代能源，它的优势就是其储量远远 超过天然石油，在我国主要分布在松辽、抚顺等九个盆地，虽然其品性低于石油，但 是在能源匮乏的今天，越来越受到人们的高度重视。世界上大型知名的石油公司，都 在致力于油页岩开采利用的研究。 本研究主要对新疆 M 页岩油厂的建设可行性进行研究，首先对页岩油的市场进行 预测，对投入项目进行风险评估，然后分析建厂的技术可行性和经济可行性，以及其 节能环保可行性，最后以新疆 M 项目为例，对项目的投资进行估算，对财务进行分析， 论证其建设的可行性和经济前景。新疆 M 页岩油厂建设不但响应中央西部大开发战略 的号召，更是能通过投资建厂把油页岩资源储量优势转换成经济优势，缓解我国能源 的供需矛盾，具有重大意义。 关键词， 页岩油，油厂建设，可行性研究III Feasibility study of Xinjiang M shale oil plant construction project Abstract Petroleum is an important strategic resource, which has close relationship with the global political and economic pattern pattern, a national oil production and reserves are determined by the national security, oil security is the important part of national strategy. But since 1993, China became a net oil importer, and with China's rapid economic development, the number of oil imports increased year after year, as a kind of non-renewable primary energy, now the oil in the economic development of a country's position can not be shaken dynamic. Oil shale is oil of complementary and alternative energy, its advantage is its reserves are far more than natural oil, in China are mainly distributed in the Songliao, Fushun nine basin, although the character than oil, but in the energy shortage today, more and more people's attention. The world famous big oil companies, research is focused on oil shale mining use. This research is mainly on the feasibility of shale oil plant construction in West China, first of all to predict shale oil market, to evaluate the risk of investment project, technical feasibility and economic feasibility and analysis of plant, and the feasibility of its energy saving and environmental protection, and finally to Xinjiang M project as an example, estimate the project investment, analysis on the financial, demonstrate the construction feasibility and economic prospects. Oil shale is not only in response to the construction of the western western big development strategy's call, is by investing the reserves of oil shale resources advantages into economic advantages, ease the contradiction between supply and demand of energy in China, is of great significance. Keywords: Shale oil, Factory construction, Feasibility studyV 目 录 第 1 章 绪 论..................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与意义...................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景......................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义......................................................................................2 1.2 国内外页岩油利用现状.......................................................................3 1.3 本文研究内容及研究方法...................................................................5 1.3.1 研究内容......................................................................................5 1.3.2 研究方法......................................................................................5 第 2 章 页岩油厂建设市场预测......................................................................7 2.1 页岩油市场预测...................................................................................7 2.1.1 燃料油市场消费现状..................................................................7 2.1.2 页岩油供需预测..........................................................................9 2.2 竞争力分析.........................................................................................10 2.2.1 页岩油市场竞争力....................................................................10 2.2.2 新疆 M 项目竞争力 ..................................................................10 第 3 章 项目技术可行性研究........................................................................12 3.1 技术可行性.........................................................................................12 3.1.1 主要产品规格及质量标准........................................................12 3.1.2 工艺技术方案之干馏单元........................................................13 3.1.3 工艺技术方案之脱硫单元........................................................15 3.2 工艺设备技术方案.............................................................................17 第 4 章 建厂可行性研究................................................................................18 4.1 建厂条件.............................................................................................18VI 4.2 厂址方案.............................................................................................19 第 5 章 节能环保可行性研究 .......................................................................21 5.1 能耗指标分析.....................................................................................21 5.1.1 折标系数及能耗估算 ...............................................................21 5.1.2 能耗估算....................................................................................22 5.2 节能措施综述.....................................................................................23 5.3 劳动保护及安全.................................................................................23 5.3.1 自然危害因素分析 ...................................................................24 5.3.2 生产危害因素分析 ...................................................................24 5.3.3 安全卫生防护措施 ...................................................................27 5.3.4 安全卫生管理............................................................................29 第 6 章 投资估算............................................................................................31 6.1 费用编制依据.....................................................................................31 6.2 投资估算组成表.................................................................................31 第 7 章 财务分析............................................................................................36 7.1 基础数据.............................................................................................36 7.2 总成本估算.........................................................................................38 7.3 财务盈利能力分析 ............................................................................39 7.4 清偿能力分析.....................................................................................39 7.5 盈亏平衡分析及敏感性分析 ............................................................40 7.6 财务评价结论.....................................................................................41