江苏新电Zx1O00MW机组建设项目可行性研究 摘要 江苏省是我国经济最发达的省份之一,全省用电负荷持续高速增长,根据电力平 衡预测,/十二五0期间,江苏电力供应存在较大的缺口为此,提出江苏新海发电有 限公司通过拆除老厂小机组,新建两台100OMW机组以缓解/十二五0期间江苏电力 供应不足的压力在项目前期调研与论证过程中,为提高决策质量,确保投资效益, 本文作者结合工作实践,对该项目进行了可行性研究 本报告主要依据国家/上大压小0的电力政策和节能减排的要求,结合江苏省和连 云港市总体发展规划以及江苏新海发电有限公司各项要素,从可行性研究的一般方法 做起,研究该项目的投资环境!市场需求!厂址条件!技术方案!资源条件!环境及 社会影响,在此基础上对项目进行了投资估算和财务分析,同时进行了项目的风险识 别和项目的整体风险评价 最后,得出总体评价结论:项目建成投运将可部分解决/十二五0期间江苏电网装 机容量不足的问题,并在一定程度上减缓江苏省电力能耗和环保压力,该项目的建设 是必要的;项目的厂址条件优良,环保状况满足要求,技术方案先进,煤炭供应及运 输有保证,融资渠道畅通,该项目的建设是可行的;投资估算和财务分析显示,本项 目单位投资低,投资效益高,同时在老厂原址上建设,节约了宝贵的厂地资源,利用 了原来的公用设施以及人力资源,该项目的建设是合理的 关键词:电力,投资,可行性研究AbstfaCt江苏新电2x1000MW机组建设项目可行性研究 AbstraCt JiangsuProvinee,asoneofthemostdeveloPedProvineesinChina,hasbeen PredietedthattherewillbeagreatgapinitseleetriePowerdistributionduringthe叭velfth Five一yearPlanPeriodduetothesPeedygrowthofthePowereonsumPtionload.Underthis eireumstance,it15ProPosedthatXinhaiPowerGenerationComPanyLtddismantlethe smallgenerator咖tsintheoldPlantandsetuPtwonew1000MW丽tstoeasethe PressureofPowershortageintheProvineeinthenextfive一yearplanPeriod.Whllean earlyresearehanddemonstrationonthefeasibilityofthisProjeet15underway,theauthor ofthisPaPer15alsoearryingonhisownreseareheombinedwithhisworkingexPerienee50 astoPromoteamorerationaldeeisionmakingandguaranteetheinvestmenteffeetiveness OnthebasisoftheeleetriePowerPolieyof/eneouragingthebigPlantsinsteadofthe smallonesandtherequirementofemissionreductionandenergysavinginChina,this PaperemPloystheeonunonmethodsoffeasibilitystudytoexPloretheinvestment environmeni,marketdemands,loeationeonditions,teclmologysolutions,resourees, environmentalandsoeialeffeetionofthisProjeetintermsoftheoveralldeveloPmentPlan inJiangsuandthePartieularoneinLianyUangangCityaswellasallthefaetorsinthe eomPany二Thenitcontinueswiththeinvestmentestimationandthefinaneialanalysison theProjeet,followedbyitsriskideniifieationandtheoverallriskevaluation. Attheend,thePaPerdrawsaconelusionontheoverallevaluation:it15neeessaryto establishtheProjeetbeeausethecomnussio垃ngofitwillbeabletoPartlysolvethe ProblemoftheinstalledeaPaeitydefieieneyoftheeleetrienetworksinJiangsuduringthe TwelfthFive一yearPlanPeriodandtorelieve,toaeertaindegree,theProvineeofthe PressurefromtheeleetrieityeonsumPtionandtheenvironmentProtection,it15feasibleto earryouttheProjeetfortheidealloeationofthenewPlant,thesatisfyingenvironment,and theadvancedteehnologysolutions,theguaranteedeoalsuPPlyandtransPortationandthe eleareapitalraisingchan-nels;andit15PractiealtobuilduPtheProjeetfortheinvestment estimationandthefinaneialanalysisshowthattheunitinvestmeni15aslowastheProfits arehighanditeansavethePreeiouslandandmakegooduseoftheformerPubliefacilities aswellasthehumanresoureesbysettingituPontheoriginalPlant. Key!Vords:Eleetriepower,investment,feasibilitystudy II目录江苏新电ZXI000MW机组建设项目可行性研究 目录 摘要......................................................................................................I AbstraCt..........................,...........,...........................11 1绪论.......................................................................................................1 1.1研究问题的提出............................................................#..#..#,1 1.2研究目的............................................................................,..................#......2 1.3研究方法和内容..............,...........................#.......2 2可行性研究的理论综述..........................#...5 2.1可行性研究的含义.....................................................#.#5 2.2可行性研究的作用及依据......................................................,..............6 2,3可行性研究的主要内容......................................................................................7 2.4项目风险管理理论.....................................................#9 3项目建设必要性分析........................................................................n 3.1投资背景分析.................................................,......................11 3.1.1国家节能减排的总体目标..............................................,...................n 3.1.2江苏省电力工业布局战略.............................................,...................n 3.1.3连云港市国民经济高速发展的要求.....,.......,..............................H 3.2电力市场需求分析.................................................#12 3.2.1江苏省及连云港市电力市场现状............................................................12 3.2.2电力市场需求预测....,......................,............................................12 3.3必要性分析结论........,.........................................#..#19 4技术可行性分析.........................................#..20 4.1燃料及运输分析.................,........................................#,20 4.1.1煤炭来源二,..........................,....................,.....................................20 4.1.2煤炭运输............,..............................,............................................20 4.1.3本工程燃料及运输分析............................................................................20 4.2厂址条件研究.....................................................................................#.......#.#22 4.2.1建设大型电厂的厂址条件.....................,.....................................22 4.2.2本项目厂址条件分析..............,.........................................................22 4.2.3厂址条件分析结论..................,..,............................................,.24 4.3装机容量及主要参数选择......................................................,...................24 4.3.1选择原则....................................................................................................24目录江苏新电ZXIO00MW机组建设项目可行性研究 4.3.2方案比较....................................................................................................25 4.3.3方案比较分析............................................................................................25 4.4装机及主要系统方案...............................,二,...............................................26 4.4.1装机方案.....................................,.................................................,26 4.4.2主要系统方案,....................................,..........................................27 4.5技术可行性分析结果..............................................,................................,二29 5环境及社会影响可行性分析............................................................30 5.1环境影响............................................................................................................30 5.1.1厂址所在地区环境现状............................................................................30 5.1.2本工程可能造成的环境影响分析.........................................................,二31 5.2社会影响............................................................................................................33 5.3环境及社会影响可行性分析结果....................................................................33 6经济合理性分析................................................................................35 6.1项目投资估算............................................................................................,.35 6.1.1编制原则....................................................................................................35 6.1.2编制年水平及设备材料价格................................,.............................35 6.1.3基本预备费........................................................