本文首先介绍国内外项目评价的发展过程，继而，分析了自动化辅料物流系统的 评价指标体系的要素，进而建立了自动化辅料物流系统的评价指标体系。并先用层次 分析法确定该 GDZY 广州生产基地辅料物流系统项目三个备选方案中各指标因素的 权重。然后，再用专家咨询法对项目备选方案的各指标因素进行评判。最后，利用模 糊综合评价法对该项目的备选方案进行综合评价，从中为 GDZY 广州生产基地辅料物 流系统项目选出较优的投资方案。 本可行性研究为 GDZY 公司决策层以何种方案引进的决策提供了有力的评判依 据，改变了在投资先进制造系统时，公司决策层由于难以综合评价投资项目，仅仅以 个人主观臆断，仅凭个人猜测来进行投资决策的状况。同时，也改变了以往仅仅以传 统的评价指标来分析项目的可行性的习惯，大大地推动了先进技术在企业中的应用。 关键词，可行性研究；自动化辅料物流系统；评价指标体系；层次分析法；模糊综合 评价Abstract This dissertation first introduces the development of Project Evaluation at home and abroad. Try to constructs the performance evaluation system of Automation Supplementary Logistics Systems by analyzing the various elements. Further, we take the GDZY Corp. as the representative case to systematically explain the performance evaluation system, aim to discover the optimized decision-making. The performance evaluation system，which is constructed in this paper, has adopted AHP Method, to avoid the deficiencies of single subjective scoring method and decide the importance of each index objectively, Expert Consultation Method, to clustering, filtering and examining the key elements, Fuzzy Comprehensive Appraisement Method, to elaborate the outcome of final evaluation value. The performance evaluation system can strongly provide a rational method in project management of Automation Supplementary Logistics Systems for tobacco companies. Upgrade the traditional evaluation methods, and solve the problem of decision-making dilemma when investing the high-priced equipment. Key words: Feasibility study; Supplementary Logistics System; Performance evaluation system; AHP; Fuzzy evaluation目 录 摘要........................................................................................................................................1 ABSTRACT.............................................................................................................................. II 第一章 绪 论............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景.......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究的意义...................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 文献综述.......................................................................................................................... 2 1.3.1 项目评价的发展过程 [1] [2] ........................................................................................ 2 1.3.2 项目综合评价的发展过程 [3] .................................................................................... 3 1.4 研究框架 .......................................................................................................................... 4 1.5 研究方法 .......................................................................................................................... 5 1.6 本章小结.......................................................................................................................... 5 第二章 GDZY 公司广州生产基地自动化辅料物流系统评价指标体系的建立..................6 2.1 自动化辅料物流系统评价指标体系的要素分析.......................................................... 6 2.1.1 自动化辅料物流系统概述....................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 自动化辅料物流系统评价指标体系的理论基础................................................... 6 2.1.3 自动化辅料物流系统评价指标体系的难点........................................................... 9 2.1.4 自动化辅料物流系统评价指标体系的层次............................................................ 9 2.1.5 自动化辅料物流系统评价指标体系的指导思想.................................................. 10 2.1.6 自动化辅料物流系统评价指标体系的原则.......................................................... 10 2.1.7 自动化辅料物流系统评价指标体系的度量.......................................................... 11 2.2 自动化辅料物流系统评价指标体系的建立................................................................ 12 2.2.1 自动化辅料物流系统的技术指标......................................................................... 12 2.2.2 自动化辅料物流系统的经济指标.......................................................................... 12 2.2.3 自动化辅料物流系统的生产指标.......................................................................... 14 2.2.4 自动化辅料物流系统的安全环保指标.................................................................. 15 2.2.5 自动化辅料物流系统的技术支持指标.................................................................. 15 2.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 16 第三章 GDZY 公司广州生产基地辅料物流系统的初步设计及其备选方案简述..........17 3.1 辅料物流系统的初步设计 ............................................................................................ 173.1.1 功能区域规划.......................................................................................................... 17 3.1.2 辅料物流系统的配盘模式..................................................................................... 18 3.1.3 入库作业流程介绍................................................................................................. 19 3.1.4 出库作业流程介绍................................................................................................. 21 3.1.5 其它作业流程介绍................................................................................................. 22 3.2 备选方案的总体介绍 .................................................................................................... 23 3.2.1 备选方案一介绍..................................................................................................... 23 3.2.2 备选方案二介绍..................................................................................................... 25 3.2.3 备选方案三介绍..................................................................................................... 27 3.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 29 第四章 备选方案的综合评价及判断..................................................................................30 4.1 模糊综合判断法............................................................................................................ 30 4.1.1 确定评价的因素集.................................................................................................. 31 4.1.2 确定评价的等级集.................................................................................................. 31 4.1.3 确定判断矩阵.......................................................................................................... 31 4.1.4 模糊综合评价模型.................................................................................................. 32 4.2 确定权重系数................................................................................................................ 32 4.2.1 层次分析法............................................................................................................. 33 4.2.2 AHP 法确定指标权重 ............................................................................................. 33 4.3 应用层次分析法得出各层因素权重 ............................................................................ 35 4.4 对项目备选方案进行模糊综合判断 ............................................................................ 36 4.