“十二五”时期中国政府加大了对农业和农村经济发展的战略要求,保证粮 食产区的农用耕地的高效利用,相关农业作物的整体产量稳中增长,对经济作物 的种植面积要大力发展,关注农民收入的大幅增长,加速新时期社会主义新农村 的建设步伐,按计划完成对现现代化农业的发展目标,最终实现城乡统筹协调发 展的发展战略,快速推进中国城镇化进程。自古以来,中国就是一个农业大国, 新时期对我们的农业发展突出新的要求,加快农业整体经济的快速稳健发展的战 略要求必然带动农用化学品产业的迅速发展,特别是农药产品在农业生产中扮演 着十分重要的作用。 作为我国三嗪类农药除草剂生产企业重要的原材料生产企业(m)SY公司)也 驶入了快速发展的快车道。H)SY公司经过二十年的发展,已经成为我国三嗪类农 药原材料的主要供应商,其主导产品CC已经成为亚洲以及全球市场的领导者,如 何保持行业市场的领导者地位是m)SY公司未来发展的方向和任务。由于受地理位 置的限制,m)SY公司必须走出去,寻找更靠近客户市场的地方,能解决原材料长 期稳定供应难题的地方建立新生产基地,如何选择新的投资项目是EDSY公司所要 解决的问题。 企业如何有效地认准市场的需求动向,把准时机地把产品推向市场,如何在 扩大产品的生产能力,如何选定合适的产品生产地址,不断增强企业核心能力是 企业长远发展的源动力。企业发展所必需的项目投资的正确决策和执行是的企业 稳步健康发展的至关重要,对企业的管理者来说,如何在投资项目的决策阶段运 用项目管理的理论知识和方法做出正确的论证和决策是值得深思熟虑的问题。科 学的项目管理正在发展成为一门新兴的学科与专业化的管理方法,对项目管理的 认识程度正在逐步提高,同时其优势也被广大的项目管理团队所认可,尤其在投 资项目的可行性研究阶段,如何有效地运用项目管理决策理论对项目的可行性进 行分析并得出科学的结论是项目的成功地关键。 本以分析EDSY公司CC投资项目的可行性研究作为基础,并结合当前企 业所在行业目前的发展现状和潜在机遇,将现代项目管理理论方法运用到企业项 山东大学硕士学位 目投资决策管理中,来更好地解决企业项目投资决策管理所面临的实际问题。根 据项目管理生命周期理论,可以把项目管理分为几个独立的阶段,其中项目的可 行性研究决策阶段是对整个项目的影响是最大的阶段,所以如何做好项目的可行 性研究和项目决策是所有项目投资者和业主所关心的问题。 本通过对项目管理生命周期理论和项目决策管理理论的研究,大量查找 国内外同类项目的项目可行性研究和决策评估方法及实际案例,解决m)SY公司为 了企业长远发展而提出的CC项目所面临的项目可行性决策问题。详细地论证了 CC 项目的产品技术方案、选址方案的可行性,并对CC项目的财务可行性,公司整体 效益,社会效益进行了分析,同时也对不确定性风险进行了评估,最终得出CC项 目是否可行的结论,供公司管理层决定。 本将项目管理和项目决策理论运用到企业投资项目的可行性研究的具体 实施过程之中,着重提升了企业在发展过程的项目决策管理的科学性与规范性, 也为企业的未来项目投资的可行性研究积累经验。 关键词:项目决策管理;CC项目;可行性研究 2 山东大学硕士学位 ABSTRACT “Twelfth Five-Year period of the Chinese government stepped up to the agricultural and rural economic development strategy requirement, ensure that food production areas of efficient utilization of agricultural land, agricultural comprehensive production capacity will increase steadily, and vigorously develop economic crop farming area, increase farmers' income, accelerate the construction of new socialist countryside, gradually realize the development requirements of the modern agriculture, realize the overall coordination development between urban and rural areas, speed up the process of our urbanization construction. The rapid development of agricultural economy is bound to promote the rapid development of the agricultural chemical industry, especially the pesticide products plays a very important role in agricultural production. As our country triazine pesticide herbicide production enterprise important raw material production enterprise (EDSY Company) also enters the fast development of the fast lane. EDSY Company after 20 years of development, has become our country triazine pesticide raw materials, the major suppliers of its leading products CC has to be a leader in Asia and the global market, how to keep EDSY industry market leader position is the company's future development direction and tasks. Due to limited by geographical location, EDSY companies must go out and look for more close to the customer market,can solve the long-term stability of the material supply problem to establish a new production base,how to choose a new investment project is EDSY Company to solve the problem. Enterprises how to effectively assign the demand of the market trend, the accurate time to the product to the market,how to expand production capacity, how to select suitable products production address, continuously enhance the core competence is the driving force of enterprise long-term development. Enterprise development necessary for the correct project investment decision-making and execution: yes, it is the vital to the healthy development of the enterprise steadily, for managers of enterprises,how to use project management in the investment decision-making stage of theoretical knowledge and methods to make the right argument and decision is worth deliberate. 3 山东大学硕士学位 Scientific project management was developed into an emerging discipline and professional management methods are gradually promotion and popularization, especially in the study the feasibility of the project decision-making is very important to the application of project management decision theory. This paper is to analyze EDSY company CC investment project feasibility study as the foundation, and combined with the current development status of the current enterprise industry and potential opportunities, application of modern project management theory to the management of enterprise project investment decision, to better solve the practical problems facing the enterprise project investment decision management. According to the total project life cycle theory, project management can be divided into different stages, but the project feasibility study of decision-making is the impact on the entire project is one of the biggest, so how to study the feasibility of the project and the project decision-making is of concern to all project investors. This paper based on the project management life cycle theory and project decision-making management theory research, a large number of search kind for project feasibility study and decision making evaluation methods both at home and abroad and the actual case, in order to solve EDSY company enterprise long-term development and put forward the CC project feasibility decision problem faced by the project. Demonstrates in detail the CC project products technical solutions, the feasibility of the plan of site selection, and the financial feasibility of the CC project, the company as a whole benefits, social benefits are analyzed,at the same time also on the uncertainty risk assessment, and finally come to the conclusion that CC project is feasible,for management decision. In this paper to apply project management and project decision-making theory of the concrete implementation process of the investment project feasibility study, focus on the corporate promotion in the development process of project decision-making scientific and normative management, also for the future of the enterprise project investment feasibility study experience. KEY WORDS: PROJECT DECISION-MAKING MANAGEMENT; CC PROJECT; PROJECT FEASIBILITY STUDY; 4 山东大学硕士学位 第1章绪论 1.1研究的背景及意义 1.1.1研究背景 “十二五”时期中国政府加大了对农业和农村经济发展的战略要求,保证粮 食产区的农用耕地的高效利用,相关农业作物的整体产量稳中增长,对经济作物 的种植面积要大力发展,关注农民收入的大幅增长,加速新时期社会主义新农村 的建设步伐,按计划完成对现现代化农业的发展目标,最终实现城乡统筹协调发 展的发展战略,加速中国城镇化建设的进程。 “十二五”时期,围绕保护和利用好耕地、草原和江河湖海及滩涂资源,深 入实施《全国优势农产品区域布局规划(2008—2015年)》,加快构建“七区二十 三带”农业战略格局,进一步调整优化农业产业布局,做大做强主导产业,促进 生产要素在空间和产业上优化配置,不断提高农业效益和竞争力。自从1978年改革幵放,农用化学品行业的整体发展发生巨大的变化,可谓日 新月异,其中农药行业作为农用化学品行业的重要组成部分,其行业发展也节节 高升,行业结构和布局呈现良性发展态势,行业内企业在市场竞争中不断