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浙江理工大学硕士专业学位论文
I
摘要
化纤项目的建设是一项投资大、涉及面广的系统工程，需要投资者对项目的
建设风险有一个全面、科学、系统的评估。但是从现有的文献来看，目前对化纤
类项目风险评价指标的研究仍属凤毛麟角，从而对投资者上马化纤类项目的指导
缺乏针对性的理论支撑。因此，通过行之有效又非常准确的评价方法对化纤项目
做一个全面的分析是一个迫切需要解决和值得深入研究的课题。本文着眼化纤项
目，并以TK公司的超仿棉差别化纤维项目为实例对象，采用AHP和FCE相结
合的风险评价法，旨在指导TK公司项目风险评价模型的构建
首先，本文分析了工程类项目尤其是化纤项目需要进行项目风险评价的背
景，然后在国内外各位学者的研究成果及本人对相关文献梳理的基础上，采用文
献法、结构分解法，并结合问卷调查的方法对化纤项目的风险进行了识别，最终
得到化纤项目的风险因素清单
其次，在对工程类项目风险评价指标和评价方法的深入研究后，本文最终决
定选用AHP和FCE相结合的评价方法。通过风险评价指标体系的建立和风险指
标体系层次结构模型的建立，利用计算得到每一个风险因素的权重，然后再结合
问卷调查得到的风险评语集构造模糊判断矩阵，通过最大隶属度的计算，得出项
目整体的风险水平
最后，以TK公司超仿棉化纤项目的实例研究，既验证了整篇论文研究成果
的可行性和实用性，又对实例研究中得出的主要风险因素提出了相应的风险应对
措施，较圆满的完成了论文的研究
关键词：化纤项目；项目风险；风险识别；风险评价
浙江理工大学硕士专业学位论文
III
Abstract
The investment of chemical fiber project is a huge and complex project, which
needs a comprehensive, scientific and systematic assessment towards the risk of the
construction of the project. However, according to the existing literature, there is only
a few study about the index of the risk assessment, causing investors be short of
theories to support their chemical fiber investment research. Therefore, finding out an
effective and accurate assessment method to guide people to analyze chemical fiber
investment becomes an urgent problem which needs to be immediately discussed as
well as to be further investigated. In this thesis, the author adopts AHP and FCE as
risk assessment method and takes ultra-imitation cotton differential fibers project of
TK Company as research object so as to construct TK Company’s project evaluation
index system.
First and foremost, the paper analyzes the risk assessment background of some
engineering project especially the chemical fiber project. Then basing on the research
of overseas and domestic scholars as well as the review of relevant literature, the
paper concludes a list of risk factors after identifying the risk of chemical fiber project
by the means of documentation, structure decomposition and questionnaire.
Secondly, according to the above research, the paper adopts AHP and FCE as
evaluation method. After establishing the risk assessment index system and the
analytic hierarchy process model, the weight of each risk factor can be figured out
through calculation. Then the fuzzy judgment matrix is also going to be constructed
according to the result of questionnaire. Finally, a risk level of project can be obtained
by calculating the maximum degree of subordination of risk assessment index system.
Thirdly, the author attempts to take TK Company’s ultra-imitation cotton
differential fibers project as a case study, aiming to not only demonstrate the
feasibility and practicality of the thesis but also put forward some risk
countermeasures according to the main risk factors.
Key Words: Chemical fiber project; Project risk; Risk identification; Risk assessment。。。。。。
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