。M ac qu ar ieR es ea rc hCh inaa gr icu ltu rein du str y 12F eb ru ar y 2 01 92HK/China consumer valuation tableFig 1 HK/China consumer valuation table (1) CompanyCode Price Rating TP Upside Mkt Cap P/E(X)P/B(X)ROE (%)EPS Growth (%) PEGDiv yield (%)FCF yield (%)(lcy/sh)(lcy/sh) (%) US$m 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019EDepartment storesGolden Eagle 3308 HK 8.25 OP 11.70 42% 1,788 10.79.8 1.8 1.7 17.7 17.8 -13.2 8.8 1.1 4.4 4.7 5.4 0.4Lifestyle 1212 HK 11.50 OP 17.50 52% 2,241 9.88.9 3.9 3.2 42.5 39.3 38.8 11.0 0.8 5.1 5.1 9.7 8.1LuxurySamsonite1910 HK 22.80 UP 18.40 -19% 4,231 20.218.0 2.3 2.2 15.4 13.5 5.7 -8.3 -2.2 1.9 2.1 -1.1 1.8Prada 1913 HK 24.95 OP 43.00 72% 8,499 20.518.2 2.3 2.2 11.6 12.1 39.1 12.7 1.4 3.1 3.5 4.4 3.7Chow Tai Fook 1929 HK 6.85 Neutral 5.70 -17% 8,619 16.715.6 2.0 2.0 12.6 12.9 36.3 7.3 2.1 8.2 4.7 -2.8 4.0Luk Fook 590 HK 22.45 UP 18.80 -16% 1,662 9.69.0 1.3 1.2 14.5 14.0 34.8 7.0 1.3 3.8 4.6 2.8 0.3Chow SangSang 116 HK 11.42 OP 22.70 99% 988 6.96.0 0.7 0.7 10.6 11.2 46.7 14.3 0.4 5.8 6.5 15.4 15.4Lao Feng Xiang 600612 CH 42.70 OP 62.00 45% 2,730 15.213.2 3.3 2.8 23.0 22.9 13.8 15.2 0.9 2.4 2.9 -15.7 30.2SportswearAnta Sports 2020 HK 40.90 OP 42.00 3% 13,762 22.819.0 6.1 5.4 28.3 30.1 33.3 20.0 1.0 3.3 4.0 3.5 4.1Li Ning 2331 HK 9.78 Neutral 9.20 -6% 2,759 29.122.4 3.5 3.0 12.7 14.5 33.9 30.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.8 4.2Cosmetics SaSa 178 HK 2.94 Neutral 2.80 -5% 1,133 20.117.9 3.6 3.7 18.7 20.3 30.8 12.3 1.5 6.2 6.4 6.8 2.0L' Occitane 973 HK 13.94 Neutral 13.70 -2% 2,655 23.521.5 2.4 2.3 10.4 10.9 -26.9 9.2 2.3 1.9 2.0 4.5 4.9Shanghai Jahwa 600315 CH 27.87 UP 20.20 -28% 2,829 43.145.4 3.2 3.0 7.8 6.9 33.2 -5.2 -8.8 1.4 1.5 1.3 -2.4Home appliance retailersGOME 493 HK 0.65 UP 0.40 -38% 1,842 NANA 0.7 0.9 -5.2 -3.3 107.6 -51.7 NA 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -21.7Suning 002024 CH 10.88 Neutral 14.00 29% 14,832 1,468.0 156.31.3 1.3 0.1 0.8 -143.4 839.0 NA 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0Haier Electronics 1169 HK 21.90 OP 21.80 0% 7,595 13.4 12.12.2 1.9 17.5 16.9 16.4 10.8 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.3 5.9Qingdao Haier 600690 CH 15.55 OP 17.20 11% 14,445 14.2 12.72.4 2.1 18.4 17.4 18.4 12.6 1.0 2.4 2.6 -1.9 14.6Midea Group 000333 CH 42.10 OP 50.00 19% 41,345 14.0 12.73.2 2.7 24.3 23.1 24.8 10.4 1.2 3.2 3.6 10.1 7.4Gree 000651 CH 40.70 Neutral 39.00 -4% 36,507 8.8 9.42.7 2.3 36.0 26.8 31.8 -6.5 -1.4 4.4 4.3 11.3 10.6Hanzhou Robam 002508 CH 24.65 Neutral 18.90 -23% 3,503 15.8 13.53.8 3.3 26.1 26.3 5.3 17.1 0.8 3.1 3.5 6.7 6.4Home improvementMan Wah 1999 HK 3.78 Neutral 3.50 -7% 1,867 10.9 10.32.4 2.1 24.2 21.7 -10.3 6.0 1.7 6.7 3.4 6.0 -0.3OEMShenzhou 2313 HK 90.80 OP 103.40 14% 17,624 24.620.8 5.3 4.7 22.8 24.0 22.2 18.6 1.1 1.8 2.2 3.4 3.5Stella Intnl 1836 HK 10.00 OP 13.00 35% 1,015 18.211.6 1.1 1.1 5.8 9.1 -10.2 56.7 0.2 3.5 5.7 6.0 6.0Pacific Textile 1382 HK 6.87 OP 9.10 39% 1,238 13.410.3 3.0 2.8 22.8 28.2 -20.0 29.9 0.3 6.3 8.0 4.0 6.9Li & Fung 494 HK 1.34 OP 1.91 50% 1,464 9.88.4 0.6 0.6 5.6 7.1 6.1 17.0 0.5 7.3 8.5 -6.1 8.5Yue Yuen 551 HK 26.15 OP 27.50 5% 5,349 16.413.2 1.3 1.2 7.8 9.6 -33.1 24.4 0.5 5.7 5.7 1.4 2.3Tourism CITS 601888 CH 54.40 OP 71.40 31% 16,183 33.324.4 6.6 5.5 21.1 24.6 26.4 36.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 2.6 3.9CYTS600138 CH 12.74 OP 14.50 14% 1,383 14.614.9 1.5 1.4 10.7 9.5 9.8 -2.3 -6.6 0.8 0.8 17.2 -10.0Restaurant and supply chainYUM China YUMC US 35.89 Neutral 34.50 -4% 13,499 20.1 20.7 4.8 4.025.1 21.3 73.3 -2.7 -7.6 0.5 0.8 5.6 4.0Caf de Coral 341 HK 20.85 OP 23.90 15% 1,575 26.5 22.7 3.4 3.513.0 15.3 -9.4 16.7 1.4 5.5 3.9 3.6 3.5Xiabu Xiabu 520 HK 11.20 OP 15.00 34% 1,567 22.5 18.4 4.5 3.921.7 23.1 9.5 22.6 0.8 2.9 3.0 6.4 2.3Gourmet Master 2723 TT 213.00 Neutral 250.00 17% 1,239 17.9 18.3 3.4 3.123.2 19.9 22.8 -2.1 -8.8 2.7 2.5 5.2 5.9Yihai 1579 HK 23.45 Neutral 18.20 -22% 3,084 44.6 31.4 10.9 8.427.6 30.3 81.0 42.0 0.7 0.8 1.2 0.5 2.4Haitian 603288 CH 72.47 OP 69.00 -5% 29,301 45.3 37.9 14.1 12.033.7 34.1 27.8 19.4 2.0 1.1 1.5 2.7 1.9TCI 8436 TT 440.00 OP 618.00 40% 1,408 32.9 24.3 10.1 7.734.9 35.8 87.9 35.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 2.1 3.3Consumer Discretionary - Average ex Suning20.2 17.43.7 3.2 3.2 3.33.2 4.2Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2019; prices as of 30 January 2019 M ac qu ar ieR es ea rc hCh inaa gr icu ltu rein du str y 12F eb ru ar y 2 01 93HK/China consumer valuation table (con’t)Fig 2 HK/China consumer valuation table (2) CompanyCode Price Rating TP Upside Mkt Cap P/E(X)P/B(X)ROE (%)EPS Growth (%) PEGDiv yield (%)FCF yield (%)(lcy/sh)(lcy/sh) (%) US$m 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019EGrocery retailersSun Art 6808 HK 7.41 OP 11.30 54% 9,585 22.320.1 2.5 2.3 11.7 12.0 -2.9 10.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.8 5.1Lianhua 980 HK 1.33 UP 1.50 13% 183 NANA 0.8 1.1 -17.0 -19.5 13.6 -15.7 NA 0.0 0.0 -70.1 -48.6Yonghui 601933 CH 8.21 UP 4.30 -46% 11,756 78.049.4 3.8 3.8 5.0 7.7 -42.5 57.8 0.9 1.6 1.9 -4.1 -3.8President Chain Store 2912 TT 322.50 Neutral 298.00 -8% 10,846 31.829.5 9.5 8.9 24.5 31.2 -66.0 8.0 3.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.1Taiwan Familymart 5903 TT 229.00 OP 225.00 -2% 1,664 31.028.1 9.1 8.5 30.6 31.4 17.2 10.3 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.3 2.5Consumer staplesWant Want China 151 HK 6.16 OP 7.70 25% 9,746 21.219.0 4.6 4.3 23.3 23.1 N.A 11.3 1.7 2.3 2.5 7.2 5.4Dali Foods 3799 HK 5.27 UP 4.30 -18% 8,853 16.514.4 4.1 3.5 25.8 26.1 9.1 14.7 1.0 2.9 3.3 4.2 3.4Tingyi 322 HK 10.28 Neutral 11.30 10% 7,321 19.517.9 2.5 2.3 13.1 13.3 38.8 9.2 1.9 2.5 2.7 7.7 8.8WH Group 288 HK 6.74 OP 8.90 32% 12,574 14.511.4 1.6 1.4 11.3 13.0 -24.7 26.8 0.4 3.1 3.9 7.3 8.1Shuanghui000895 CH 24.38 Neutral 22.40 -8% 12,056 16.116.3 5.0 4.7 32.5 29.6 15.8 -1.6 -10.0 5.0 5.0 7.2 6.2Uni-President China 220 HK 6.74 Neutral 8.50 26% 3,734 22.620.0 1.9 1.8 8.4 9.2 25.5 12.9 1.5 3.0 3.4 4.6 4.2Uni President Enterprises 1216 TT 71.90 Neutral 75.20 5% 13,390 23.721.2 3.9 3.7 15.2 17.7 -56.8 12.0 1.8 3.4 3.8 3.2 5.9Hengan 1044 HK 60.25 UP 51.00 -15% 9,127 16.817.3 3.6 3.4 22.3 20.2 -2.3 -2.9 -5.9 3.8 3.7 5.4 5.2Moutai600519 CH 676.00 OP 707.00 7% 127,49925.9 23.8 7.7 6.6 32.5 29.8 20.3 9.0 2.7 1.9 2.1 3.7 4.1Yanghe 002304 CH 95.78 OP 123.20 32% 22,21318.8 16.4 4.3 3.8 24.2 24.3 25.1 14.4 1.1 3.2 3.6 6.7 6.3Tsingtao H 168 HK 33.65 Neutral 30.40 -8% 6,62640.3 33.9 2.5 2.4 6.4 7.2 15.8 18.7 1.8 1.6 1.9 5.7 4.9Wuliangye 000858 CH 57.28 Neutral 52.30 -6% 33,51917.9 16.5 3.6 3.2 21.2 20.4 26.1 8.5 1.9 2.8 3.0 5.2 5.4Tsingtao A600600 CH 37.19 Neutral 39.70 8% 6,65242.2 34.2 2.8 2.6 6.8 7.9 22.0 23.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 5.9 5.0CRB 291 HK 27.10 UP 20.20 -25% 11,23132.9 33.6 4.5 4.2 14.1 13.0 40.2 -2.1 -16.3 0.8 0.9 2.2 4.8Dairy & Infant formulaChina Modern Dairy 1117 HK 0.96 OP 1.34 40% 774 6.45.6 0.7 0.7 11.4 13.3 80.4 15.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 -7.0 -1.3China Mengniu2319 HK 24.95 UP 16.00 -36% 12,495 32.431.5 3.4 3.1 10.9 10.3 25.3 3.0 10.7 0.7 0.8 -0.6 3.7Bright Dairy & Food600597 CH 8.31 Neutral 8.00 -4% 1,524 19.417.6 1.8 1.7 9.5 10.0 -22.4 10.8 1.6 1.4 1.6 -1.2 4.2Yili600887 CH 24.10 OP 27.10 12% 21,945 25.322.9 5.4 5.0 22.2 22.6 -2.7 10.3 2.2 2.0 2.2 5.6 2.6Health & Happiness 1112 HK 45.40 Neutral 44.30 -2% 3,609 23.118.4 4.6 3.7 22.6 22.6 15.2 25.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.6 7.2Yashili 1230 HK 1.32 OP 1.97 49% 805 111.138.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 2.5 -126.9 188.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 -10.3 0.3Greatview468 HK 4.93 OP 5.20 5% 847 15.8 15.12.3 2.2 14.7 15.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 5.3 5.3 2.6 6.3Consumer Staples - Average ex Yashili2.2 2.40.7 2.3 2.2 2.40.7 2.3Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2019; prices as of 30 January 2019 Macquarie Research China agriculture industry 12 February 2019 4Hog price poised to rally in 2H19; ASF will intensify thishog cycleGiven our estimated ~10% decrease in sow stock and ongoing ASF preventing restocking,Macquarie’s China pork supply & demand model now estimates an 8.1% decrease in total supplyin 2019, driven by a 10.6% decline in domestic hog production, and we believe hog prices are wellpoised to rally from 2H19. We prefer upstream hog producers to downstream meat processors, asthis price rally should boost upstream companies