figure 2 Guangzhou Shopping Centre Stock, Take up & Vacancy Rate an- nual Statistic and Forecast 图 2 广州历年优质购物中心分区库存量、占有面积及空置率统计及预测 supply, demand & Vacancy In 1Q 2009, both located in Tianhe District, Bercy Plazaand the underground shopping mall Walking Festival newlylaunched 40,000 sq m and 13,000 sq m of GFA to stock ofthe market; Meanwhile, as another underground mall , JNSunday commenced and brought 30,000 sq m of GFA to stockof the Haizhu District. Based on historic statistic of ColliersInternational, the huge supply in 1Q geared up existing stock oflarge-scale retail properties in Guangzhou to 1,930,150 sq m. It is expected that the upcoming supply in 2009 will generate403,100 sq m of GFA, signifcantly outperforms as in 2008 with113,000 sq m of GFA. As macro economy is still in turmoil andwhich sets back large retailers’ expansion plans, retail propertiesunder construction are confronting frustration on leasing, forcedto postpone the date of commencements. Nonetheless, variousupscale retail projects are re-scheduled to open at the periodaround Asia Game 2010, driving the supply of retail property upto peak of recent years.Under circumstances of large volume of supply in 1Q 2009, thevacancy slightly rose to 14.5%. Notwithstanding the negativemacro economy, prime retail properties within Tianhe andYuexiu Districts are maintaining low-level vacancy rates,demonstrating great confidence of large retailers and theircontinuous support. Amongst new commencements, the twounderground shopping malls, JN Sunday and Festival Walkboth succeeded in attracting pedestrian flow by advantages ofdirect connection to the metro station and stylish design. Theirvacancy rates are forecast to depress in the short term whilemore retailers commence business.供应、需求及空置分析 本年第一季度内，位于天河区的柏西商都及地下商场又一 城开始营业，为市场带来40,000及13,000平方米供应量； 同时海珠区的江南新地正式开业，新增了30,000平方米地 下商业空间。据高力国际统计，以上供应量推动了广州市 的大型购物中心面积上升至1,930,150平方米`。 预计2009年内投入市场的大型商业地产面积为403,100平 方米，明显高于2008年的113,000平方米供应量。由于宏 观经济仍未走出低谷，大型零售品牌扩张减缓，导致多个 未落成项目在招商方面临挑战，大型商业地产发展商延缓 项目进度或推迟开业计划，但预计将有多个商场将集中于 2010年亚运期间落成，推动广州商业地产供应进入近年来 的高峰期。 在大体量新增供应投放市场以及消费市场普遍走向低迷的 情况下，本季度空置率轻微上升至14.5％。虽然宏观经营 前景未见明朗，但天河区及越秀区中心地段的优质物业普 遍空置率依然维持于低水平，知名品牌商家对中心区域的 经营信心未受影响；而在新开业的商场中，江南新地及又 一城均通过时尚设计及与地铁站连通的优势成功吸引消费 人流，有望在短期内有更多商铺开业以降低空置率。 /china source: colliers international Guangzhou 数据来源:广州高力国际 source: colliers international Guangzhou 数据来源:广州高力国际 The Knowledge Report|First Quarter|2009|Retail Property figure 3Guangzhou Shopping Centre Stock, Take up & Vacancy Rate by Dis- tricts in 1Q 2009 图 32009年第一季度广州优质购物中心分区库存量、占有面积及空置 SHOPPINGCENTRE MARKET CONDITION 大型购物中心市场状况 colliers international3 The Knowledge Report|First Quarter|2009|Retail Property rent analysis Entering to 2009, driven by new commencements, the averagerental price of ground foor of high-end retail shopping centrerecorded at RMB625 per sq m per month. Based on contractedrents, the statistic result has merely dropped by 0.8% quarter- on-quarter (q-o-q).Great disparity exists on rental price level among districtsin Guangzhou. The average rental price of ground floor wasrecorded at RMB917 per sq m per month and has been toppedto the overall Guangzhou city. Yuexiu District, reputed as atraditional retailing hub, was recorded relatively lower level atRMB768 per sq m per month. Looking forward, a few qualityshopping malls will be completed in 2010, it is expectedthat those quality shopping malls are more attractive tointernational famous brands, by then it is capable to detractconsumer flow, resulting greater difference on rent amongdistricts in Guangzhou. As foreseen upcoming projects will be delayed, statisticalaverage rent that based on contracted prices are consideredto flat without significant fluctuation., nevertheless rent ofbusiness revenue basis are forced to fall down. Such slump isexpected to eliminate and start to surge at the year-end understimulus of the Asia Game 2010. 租金分析 本季度在新开业的商场带动下，市中心区域优质购物 中心首层平均价格为人民币620元/平方米/月，由于 经济不景气对优质物业的合约约定租金影响不大，故 此统计价格仅比上季度轻微下调0.8%。 全市各区的租金水平差异依然较大，天河区及越秀区 的租金水平明显优于其余各区，首层平均租金达到 917元/平方米/月及768元/平方米/月。随着2010年多 个大型高档项目相继落成，优质零售物业将对国际知 名品牌有较大吸引力，并引导消费人群转移，促使区 域之间的租金差异拉大。 展望未来租金发展趋势，由于今年内多个项目推迟落 成时间，以及合约为基准的租金水平变动不大，故预 测2009年整体市场平均租金水平将维持窄幅变动，但 以营业收入为基础的租金收入则有下调压力。预计随 着2010年亚运会临近，今年年底将有租金回升的趋 势。 figure 4Guangzhou Retail Shopping Mall Ground Floor Average Rental图 4 广州零售商场首层平均租金 source: colliers international Guangzhou 数据来源:广州高力国际江南新地 JN Sunday 267 offices in 57 coUntries on6 continents Usa 95 canada 17 latin america 17 asia Pacifc 52 eMea 85 $1.6 billion in annual revenue 672.9 million square feet under management10,171 Professionals contact inforMation eric lamGeneral ManagerSouth China Tel:86 20 38193888 Fax: 86 20 38193899Eric.Lam@colliers Bryan chan Associate Director Research & Project Advisrory Tel:86 20 38193888 Fax: 86 20 38193899 Bryan.Chan@colliers this report and other research materials may be foundon our website at .Questions relatedto information herein should be directed to the researchdepartment at the number indicated above.this documenthas been prepared by colliers international for advertisingand general information only.colliers international makesno guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind,expressed or implied, regarding the information including,but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy andreliability.any interested party should undertake their owninquiries as to the accuracy of the information.colliersinternational excludes unequivocally all inferred or impliedterms, conditions and warranties arising out of this documentand excludes all liability for loss and damages arising therefrom.colliers international is a worldwide affliation ofindependently owned and operated companies.由广州高力国际物业服务有限公司制作的这份报告仅作为参考 资讯。虽然信息来源被视为可靠，但高力国际并不为其准确性 作出任何保证或担保。任何有关的当事人需要自行承担关于咨 讯正确性的调查责任。高力国际特此声明，对文件中的直接、 简接、推断性或默认的保证或说法不负上任何责任，不承担 由此产生的任何损失责任和赔偿责任。有关本报告及其它市场 调研报告信息，请查阅本公司网页/china。 colliers Macaulay nicolls 及其子公司均为colliers internationalProperty consultants的联盟成员；高力国际在全球57 个国际拥 有267 家办事处。 colliers international Property services(Guangzhou) co., ltd. 702 Teem Tower 208 Tianhe Road Guangzhou 510620 PRC /china The Knowledge Report|First Quarter|2009| Retail PropertyWithin 1st half of 2009, the weakening globalretail consumption results internationalupscale retailers’ wait-and-see attitudes tobusiness expansion, while local brands aresubstitute and reputed as major tenants fornewly commenced shopping malls. Accordingto statistics from Government demonstratethat the downward economy is leadingto changes on consumption preferences,F&B and services consumptions are onthe track of fast growing and significantlyoutperform to commodity consumptions,implying the demand for supporting-typetenants are strengthening, and ultimatelyas well as developing strategies of upcomingretail properties should focus on multiplefunctioning in terms of diversifed tenant mix. With stimulus of the Asia Game, t