I t’s Sunday night, dinner’s on the stove, and your f fth-gradersuddenly remembers that she needs a costume for the Arbor Dayplay tomorrow morning at school. Cue the drones.I f companies like Amazon, Google, UPS, andAlibaba have their way, drones will soon play anincreasingly signif cant role in the “last-mile” delivery—fromwarehouse to doorstep—of small, light packages that a customerneedsnow . Given that almost 80 percent of what consumers orderonline weighs 5 lb or less, delivery drones could haveimportant implications for energy consumption, public safety,privacy, air and noise pollution, and air traff c management.To gain a better picture of how commercial deliverydrones might affect daily life, RAND put together a multi- disciplinary team of experts to scope this new research area.Most of the details about drone designs and business plansare still proprietary, so the team marshalled its collectiveexpertise—in advanced technologies, unmanned aerialvehicle operations, transportation research, systems analysis,modeling and simulation, and behavioral science—to studythe different facets of drone delivery systems.The team explored the hidden or indirect costs and the potential conse- quences, both positive and negative (what economists callexternalities ), ofadopting commercial delivery drones. By helping regulators and policymakersunderstand the magnitude of the issues surrounding delivery drones,and by pinpointing areas where there will be a need for analysis, f ndingsfrom this exploratory study can help shape a research agenda thatbalances innovation against the safety and well-being of the public. So, what are the policy issues that your f fth- grader’s tree costume mightencounter on its way to your doorstep W ha t’sin S tore f orC om m er cia lA Day inthe Life ofa Drone If companies havetheir way, drones willsoon play an increasinglysigni cant role in“last-mile” delivery. Takeoff—LocationMattersA drone’s point of departure will affectenergy consumption, f eet size, aerialcongestion, noise, and privacy. Using mathe- matical models, the research team exploredthe effects of delivery drones in four hypotheticalcity settings—again, without access to eitherproprietary aircraft designs or business models.What they found was that both the number andlocation of delivery drone centers matter. An increase in the percentage of parcelsdelivered by drones (versus by trucks) couldincrease the energy consumedper parcel — by up to an order of magnitude in some cases.In a large city, a drone might have to f y along distance from a distribution center todeliver a single parcel, unlike a truck, whichcan drive the same distance with multipleparcels. More drone centers would meanshorter f ights, which, in turn, would meanlower energy consumption per drone. Moredrone centers would cut drone fleet sizesas well, because shorter flights wouldallow for more deliveries per drone.Fewer drones in the air, and shorter trips,could also reduce aerial congestion, privacy,and noise. But there will be some trade-offsto having more drone centers. For example,neighborhoods may oppose the constructionand presence of the centers. And peopleliving near a drone center would experiencemore activity overhead than those livingfarther away (much like with airports). Delivery Dr on es Privacy Commercial delivery drones will need cameras anddata collection sensors to help them navigate. Abyproduct of this will be a new level of surveillance aspeople go about their daily business. For example, ifall the small parcels in Los Angeles were delivered bydrone, one-eighth of the city would be within camerarange at any given time. Just how this surveillance willaffect privacy depends on questions such as whoowns the data; how that information will be used; andwhether people behave differently, for good or ill,under the gaze of drone cameras.Safety An increase in drone traff c will also mean an increasein the risk of drones striking one another, collidingwith other aircraft, or crashing to the ground. Butcurrent Federal Aviation Administration regulationsdon’t cover airworthiness standards for drones or themanagement of drone traff c. An updated, or “drone- centric,” version of the Air Commerce Act of 1926,which mandated that the government establishnavigational aids and safety regulations for pilots,could help promote safe drone activity.Up in the Air A sky full—or even partially full—of dronesraises questions about privacy, noise,and safety. Noise Noise from aircraft can have a range of effects, fromdisturbing human sleep and hearing to disruptingwildlife and reducing property values. Drone noise willdepend a lot on drone design, but simplif ed models inthe study suggest that, once a drone is at its travellingheight (about 100 meters), even one as loud as a lawnmower will be barely audible to people on the ground. As drone traff c increases, so will overhead noise,but not by as much as might be expected. Nonetheless,noise from sustained hover, landing, and takeoffs inneighbor hoods could be a problem. Possible solutions include altering a drone’s f yingheight—relatively small changes in height can havea larger effect than reducing the number of dronesgenerating the noise—and designing quieter drones. At Your Doorstep Setting Standardsand MonitoringOperationsT he convenience of your daughter’scostume arriving before bed aside, justhow much energy did this drone deliveryrequire Using real data for Minneapolis,and assuming that 80 percent of deliverystops are for packages weighing 5 lb orless, a simulation model found that drones(versus trucks) could save almost 6 percentof the energy needed to deliver packageswithin a 10-mile radius of the city center.While noise abatement efforts and airspacerestrictions might reduce this eff ciency,advances in battery technology and dronedesign could make up for those reductions.Also, depending on the sourcing of theelectric power that drones use, drone deliveriescould have a much lower carbon footprint,and produce less local air pollution, thantraditional delivery trucks.I n these early days of drone aviation, we donot yet have enough data or experience toset proper airworthiness standards for drones.Monitoring operations in special test sitesand establishing a new drone testing facilitycould help shape new standards. To safelyhandle heavy drone traff c, an update to thesystem in place for monitoring conventionalaircraft, which is both expensive and dependson human air traff c controllers, will also bein order. One possibility would be a moref exible and automated system (or a systemof smaller-scale approaches) that focuses onthe observation and strategic management oftraff c f ows. Sharing data derived from dronetraff c management could produce a rangeof benef ts—for example, by giving droneoperators information on a severe weathersituation or by giving regulatory agenciesdetails about a particular accident involvingdrones. Moreover, the insights and tools froma new drone air traff c system could inform(and improve) conventional air traff c control. If all the small parcels inLos Angeles were deliveredby drone, one-eighth ofthe city would be withincamera range at any giventime.T o better understand the near-term technicalviability and future scalability of deliverydrones, the research team analyzed the f ightperformance, conf guration, power and propul- sion, and autonomy requirements of deliverydrones. Among their f ndings:A 10–15-mile delivery radius is likely suff cient tocover most U.S. urban areas. A delivery drone with vertical takeoff and landingcapabilities can ease operations at the terminalarea, though at a cost to cruise eff ciency. The limited delivery range and payload require- ments, coupled with the power eff ciency ofelectric motors at small scales, makes verticaltakeoff and landing viable.Currently, leading commercial designs fordelivery drones represent the limit of what ispossible when assuming a simple, moderatelye