（2）构建了兼容社交媒体的危机预警预测、危机实时管理与危机后期恢复
管理三大公共危机管理子系统来全面分析社交媒体工具性功能的实现方式。研究
发现：社交媒体在危机监测、危机预警预报、高弹性应急管理组织构建、信息系
统维护、危机态势感知、信息发布与传播、舆情监测管理、众包决策支持、决策
优化、志愿服务、情感支持、慈善募捐等危机管理全过程具有关键应用优势
（3）借助疾病传播学理论，对社交媒体上危机信息传播与谣言自净化机制
进行动力学分析。构建了开放式社交媒体危机信息传播 SEIR 模型与谣言自净化
SEIRC 模型，证明了模型的基本再生数是影响模型系统均衡状态的关键参数。当
基本再生数小于 1 时，模型分别在无信息传播平衡点和无谣言传播平衡点达到均
衡，信息或谣言将停止传播；大于 1 时，模型分别在信息传播平衡点与谣言疾病
平衡点达到均衡，信息或谣言将在社交媒体网络形成稳定传播
（4）运用计划行为理论与规范激活模型建模，实证研究了公共危机期间社
交媒体用户谣言驳斥行为形成的影响因素及其作用机理。研究发现：阻碍因素与
激励因素通过“高意识—低行动差距”与“低态度—高行为差距”对实际行为形
成产生不同方向的影响；模型解释能力良好，主观规范、感知行为控制及后果意
识是预测谣言驳斥行为最重要的三大影响因素
关键词：公共危机，社交媒体，危机管理，危机沟通，管理系统，谣言控制II
ABSTRACT
The booming social media technology has been increasingly used in
administrative managements, and greatly improved the wisdom in dealing with the
frequently occurred public crises worldwide. However, the relevant academic research
is still insufficient. Thus, the normative and empirical analysis are integrated to study
the public crisis management issues under the context of social media from the
perspectives of crisis communication, public crisis management system construction,
crisis information dissemination, the self-regulation about rumors and the motivation
of rumor combating behavior. Besides, some policy and institutional suggestions have
been provided accordingly. The main conclusions and innovative points of the
dissertation are as follows:
(1) From the perspective of users, the channel function features of social media
in crisis communication have been discussed. Text mining presents that crisis situation
reports, personal situation reports, emergency preparedness and emotional expressions
are the most common applications. Crosstab and Logistic regression analysis show
that internal and external factors, namely, the user type (governments, traditional
media, ordinary individuals and NGOs), the crisis stages (before, in and after the
crisis) and characteristics of users (fans and weibo number), significantly influence
and have a good power to predict social media application purposes.
(2) Three crisis management systems (early warning and forecasting system,
real-time management system and later-period recovery management system) have
been built to comprehensively analyze the instrumental function of social media. It
has been found that social media have strong application strengths in various public
crisis management activities, such as crisis monitoring, crisis warning and forecasting,
construction of new management organization with high resilience, information
system maintenance, situation awareness, information issue and spread, opinion
monitoring, crowdsourcing decision support, decision optimization, voluntary
services, emotional support, etc.
(3) Based on the infectious diseases models, the SEIR and SEIRC model are
constructed to respectively analyze the dynamic process of information dissemination
and rumor self-regulation on social media. Results show that the basic reproductionIII
ratio is the key parameter in determining the model equilibrium state. The SEIR and
SEIRC model will respectively reach the information-free equilibrium and the
rumor-free equilibrium if the ratio is less than 1, and the information-endemic
equilibrium and the rumor-endemic equilibrium if the ratio is bigger than 1.
(4) With the integration of the theory of planned behavior and the norm
activation model, the influencing factors and function mechanisms of the formation of
social media users’ rumor combating behavior during crises have been empirically
studied. Results have shown that obstructive and incentive factors influence the actual
behavior oppositely through two different kinds of gaps, namely “Higher awareness
but lower behavior gap” and “lower attitude but higher behavior gap”. It’s also
demonstrated that the proposed model has a satisfactory level of prediction power for
pro-social rumor combating behavior. In particular, subjective norms, perceived
behavioral control and awareness of adverse consequences were the three most
important predictors of actual rumor combating behavior.
KEY WORDS：Public crisis, Social media, Crisis management, Crisis communication,
Management system, Rumor controli
目 录
中文摘要.....I
ABSTRACT ........II
第 1 章 绪 论...1
1.1 研究背景..........1
1.1.1 世界范围内公共危机频发........1
1.1.2 社交媒体用户规模庞大3
1.1.3 社交媒体的政务应用受到日益重视....3
1.1.4 社交媒体在公共危机应急管理中的作用愈发突出....4
1.2 研究目标与意义..........5
1.2.1 研究目标5
1.2.2 研究意义6
1.3 研究思路、方法与内容..........7
1.3.1 研究思路7
1.3.2 研究方法9
1.3.3 研究内容..........10
1.4 主要创新点....11
第 2 章 研究综述与理论基础.......13
2.1 相关研究综述13
2.1.1 公共危机管理中的社交媒体应用研究综述..13
2.1.2 社交媒体危机信息传播动力学模型研究综述..........15
2.1.3 公共危机管理中社交媒体谣言研究综述......17
2.2 相关理论基础19
2.2.1 公共危机管理理论......19
2.2.2 传播动力
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