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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010
Developed World Populism Index*
Vote Share of Populist/Anti-Establishment PartiesTimely Estimate from Polling
Now at highest
level since 1930s
WWII
Bridgewater
Daily Observations
March 22, 20172017 Bridgewater Associates, LP
(203) 226-3030Ray Dalio
Steven Kryger
Jason Rogers
Gardner Davis
Populism: The Phenomenon
This report is an examination of populism, the phenomenonahow it typically germinates, grows, and runs its course.
Populism is not well understood because, over the past several decades, it has been infrequent in emerging
countries (e.g., Ch¨￠vezˉs Venezuela, Duterteˉs Philippines, etc.) and virtually nonexistent in developed countries.
It is one of those phenomena that comes along in a big way about once a lifetimealike pandemics, depressions,
or wars.The last time that it existed as a major force in the world was in the 1930s, when most countries
became populist.Over the last year, it has again emerged as a major force.
To help get a sense of how the level of populist support today compares to populism in the past, we created an
index of the share of votes received by populist/anti-establishment parties or candidates in national elections, for
all the major developed countries (covering the US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) all the way
back to 1900, weighting the countries by their population shares. We sought to identify parties/candidates who
made attacking the political/corporate establishment their key political cause. Obviously, the exercise is
inherently rough, so donˉt squint too much at particular wiggles.But the broad trends are clear. Populism has
surged in recent years and is currently at its highest level since the late 1930s (though the ideology of the
populists today is much less extreme compared to the 1930s).
*The latest point includes cases like Trump, UKIP in the UK, AfD in Germany, National Front in France, Podemos in Spain, and Five
Star Movement in Italy. It doesnˉt include major emerging country populists, like Erdogan in Turkey or Duterte in the Philippines. In the
rest of the study, we look at populists of the past rather than those now in office in order to study the phenomenon because the stories
of ones in power or possibly coming to
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