Please refer to page 68 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
macquarie/research/disclosures.
GLOBAL
Key forecasts, changes this month
1)Tables for real GDP growth, CPI, interest rates,
currencies and commodity prices are on pages
6-8. Online access to our global macro
forecasts is available on request
2)Fed Funds: after the recent 25bp increase, we
forecast, on average, 50bps per year until the
upper end of the Fed Funds range reaches our
forecasted terminal level of 2% in mid-2019
(unchanged view)
3)Our year-end forecasts for the US$/ for 2017-19
have gone from 110, 109 and 108 to 112,
110 and 108 (unchanged). We believe the
recent weakness in the yen has gone too far
Analyst(s)
Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited
Peter Eadon-Clarke
+81 3 3512 7850peter.eadon-clarke@macquarie
Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd.
David Doyle, CFA
+1 416 848 3663david.doyle@macquarie
Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited
James McIntyre, CFA
+61 2 8232 8930james.mcintyre@macquarie
Macquarie Capital Limited
Larry Hu PhD
+852 3922 3778larry.hu@macquarie
Jerry Peng
+852 3922 3548jerry.peng@macquarie
Macquarie Capital Securities India (Pvt) Ltd
Tanvee Gupta Jain
+91 22 6720 4355tanvee.guptajain@macquarie
Macquarie Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd
Elna Moolman
+27 11 583 2570elna.moolman@macquarie
Macquarie Capital (Europe) Limited
Matthew Turner
+44 20 3037 4340matt.turner@macquarie
Colin Hamilton
+44 20 3037 4061colin.hamilton@macquarie
17 January 2017
The Global Macro Outlook
Chinaˉs ongoing growth fade in 2017
Global real GDP growth is forecast to remain in °the long grinding cycle±
of 2.5-3.0% pa, chart below, but has moved from near the lower bound to near
the upper bound. Our 2016, 2017 and 2018 global real GDP growth forecasts
are 2.6%, 3.0% and 2.9%, respectively.
Further upside is constrained by a maturing industrial recovery, debt structures
which are limiting growth globally, and the ongoing China growth fade. This
underpins our fair-value cycle high US 10-year bond yield forecast of 2.7%.
For Chinaˉs policy-makers, the most important issue in 2017 is the ongoing
political transition, the overhaul of the current political governance structure.
Unsurprisingly, a stable economic backdrop is desirable. After 6.7% real GDP
growth in 2016, we forecast 6.5% this year and 6.0% in 2018, pages 2-4. Since
China is entering a property down-cycle, the economy will experience stronger
headwinds in the months ahead.
Global real GDP growth; Macquarieˉs long grinding cycle forecast
Note: The 16-Total is the IMFˉs 10-Advanced and 6 EM economies. Forecasts are Macquarie
where available, alternatively the IMF, please pages 6
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